Friday, June 3, 2022

Boebert Heading to Reelection?

After the first debate with her most serious opponent in the election cycle, Lauren Boebert made her points against fellow Republican Don Coram and no apparent damage was done to either. Her advantage is overwhelming in finances ($4 million to $55,000), in passionate supporters and dominance of rightwing media, including g social. Coram has one advantage in the primary. Many liberal unaffiliated voters may vote for him just to oppose Boebert. (Some Democrats are registering unaffiliated for that purpose.)

The district is rated as having a 9 percent Republican advantage. None of the Democrats running in the June 28 primary appear to have any district-wide potential. I would predict, regardless of the Democratic nominee, unless there is a political earthquake, she will carry the district, including Pueblo County.

Since 2010, Republicans have held a consistent advantage in the 3rd Congressional District, winning the congressional and presidential elections by an average of 6 points. The longtime Democratic stronghold of Pueblo is no more. Donald Trump won the county in 2016 by 390 votes, and only lost it by 2 points (1,500 votes) in 2020, whereas a 14-point Republican loss or more occurred in 2012 and 2008.

Scott Tipton, the Republican congressperson who first won in 2010, carried Pueblo in 2016 by 9,000 votes over the Democrat. In 2020, Lauren Boebert, who beat Tipton, won the district by 6 points and lost Pueblo by only 214 votes.

Colorado State Senator Don Coram (L) and Republican Congresswoman
Lauren Boebert debate at the Sky Ute Resort and Casino in Ignacio, Colo.,
May 26, 2022 | William Woody, Special to The Denver Post

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