Colorado Surprise: Congressional Battleground

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

With no statewide race, a strong blue tint to the presidential race, and other than the endless Boebert drama, it appeared a slow year for Colorado political news. Then the State Supreme Court removed Donald Trump from the ballot (14th Amendment ban on insurrectionists) and the entire (3) Republican delegation retired or switched districts. Add the new Democrat congressperson in the 8th district likely to have a competitive race and Colorado is now a hotbed of politics from border to border.

As of now, half of Colorado’s congressional delegation is either in competitive primaries or could have a competitive general election. The Republicans should hold their three open seats (see table below) but the chaotic primaries and a dysfunctional party will likely make for considerable political drama.

Will a Change of Scenery save Boebert?

Rep. Lauren Boebert | Photo: Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

Can seat switcher Lauren Boebert be denied a primary win in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District? “Money and more name identity against multiple opponents is a strong position to be in. Also, she will get endorsements,” said Floyd Ciruli to E&E reporter Jennifer Yachnin from POLITICO.

Boebert, who announced she was ending her race for reelection in the neighboring 3rd Congressional District to switch to the Eastern Plains’ 4th CD, has a war chest of $1.4 million, universal name identification (much of it highly controversial) and a close relationship with the frontrunner for president, Donald Trump, and she has already been endorsed by the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

New District, Better Home?

Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver, noted that the 4th District is shifting and could become more welcoming to Boebert.

“It’s a seat that’s become very problematic. Buck quit because he was out of sync with the denial wing of the party that’s very strong,” Ciruli said, referring to individuals who dispute the results of the 2020 presidential contest. A lot of that district looks like rural Iowa, which just went overwhelmingly for Mr. [Donald] Trump.

Historically the seat hewed to the GOP’s establishment wing, electing lawmakers like Cory Gardner and Wayne Allard, before each would go on to hold Senate seats, Ciruli said.

The district could swing back to those roots, electing a candidate like Lynch and Sonnenberg, he noted, or it would shift to the conservative wing, with Boebert, Holtorf or Harvey.

“Whether or not they’re going to go with an establishment candidate, or someone like Boebert or somebody who raises as much Cain remains to be seen,” he said.

Moreover, a crowded field could benefit Boebert, Ciruli said.

“Money and name ID against multiple opponents is a strong position to be in,” he said. “She will get endorsements.”

But even if Boebert wins her reelection bid, Ciruli suggested that doesn’t mean she’s guaranteed a long career in Congress. He mused whether she’d even survive more than one more term.

“The reason why she’s getting driven out of the 3rd is not just that she probably would have lost it, but a powerful primary in which the state’s Republican establishment was giving Mr. Hurd money and accountability,” Ciruli said, referring to the endorsements Hurd nabbed.

Read Article: https://www.eenews.net/articles/will-a-change-of-scenery-save-boebert/

Colorado Politics in an Unprecedented Year

Colorado’s top political reporters will preview the state’s biggest races, the top legislative issues, and Colorado’s political personalities: Governor Polis, Mayor Johnston, and Lauren Boebert on Feb. 2 at the Colorado Water Congress Conference.

Pollster Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel and lead the discussion through the national landscape, Colorado’s now myriad of Congressional open seats and primaries, and a legislative session that promises to deal with the high profile issues.

• How will the Congressional delegation change? Who has the advantage, disadvantage? (3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th CDs in spotlight)
• On March 5, Super Tuesday, will Colorado pick between Biden and Trump? If they are the presidential nominees in 2024, is a third party the winner? Does the presidential contest help or hurt local races?
• After the loss of Prop. HH, what’s next for legislation/initiative on taxes?
• Can Colorado Democrats unify their moderates and the far left to pass legislation on affordable housing, crime? Can the Republicans rebuild a legislative party?
• How would you grade Governor Polis’s year? Will it get better or worse?
• Whither the urban-rural divide: wolves, agriculture?

Political reporters:

• John Frank – Axios
• Marianne Goodland – Colorado Politics
• Ernest Luning – Colorado Politics

The Colorado Water Congress Conference (January 31 to February 2) is hosting the panel. See the Colorado Water Congress website for more information: https://www.cowatercongress.org/

Post Iowa: Is Nomination Contest Over?

Unless there is a major change between the January 15 Iowa Caucus and the March 5 Super Tuesday events, the race for the presidential nomination of the two major parties will be over. It may be over this week. Donald Trump’s Iowa landslide had the usual effect; also-ran candidates dropped out and candidates behind the frontrunner lacked momentum. If Trump is the nominee, does he help or hurt Colorado’s 3rd or 8th CDs, which may be close? Does he endorse Ms. Boebert in the 4th CD? If a third-party candidate/party such as RFK Jr. or No Labels is on the ballot, could they tilt the race away from the expected Joe Biden margin?

This blog posts a regular commentary and polling watch of the nominations – on to New Hampshire and South Carolina. It runs polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

Trump and Joe Biden are closely matched in favorability and the general election.

KOA – Iowa and New Hampshire

Interview with KOA’s Marty Lenz and Jeana Gondek Wednesday after the Iowa caucus. We reviewed the results and what’s next in New Hampshire (January 23) and South Carolina (February 24).

1. Donald Trump met the expectation to win but turnout was low (not unexpected given the freeze) and half of the votes went to other candidate. But he did do better with suburban, upscale voters.
2. Nikki Haley needed to come in second (some polls had her ahead of Ron DeSantis) but barely missed it. So, she lost the positive press and momentum into New Hampshire. She is still seen as the strongest candidate to take on Trump. Between her and Chris Christie, who has dropped out, they have 42 percent of New Hampshire voters (Republican and Independents) and Trump 44.
3. New Hampshire, due to its independent voters being able to participate and more moderate, less evangelical Republicans is seen as the best early state for Haley. It’s a must win for her.
4. Early polls in South Carolina show Trump with 52 percent and Haley at 22 percent, in spite of being the former governor. The state’s Republicans are very conservative and Trump has been a longtime favorite.
5. The end of the Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson campaigns was expected given the polls, results, and lack of new contributions. Called the winnowing of the process, it normally leads to a consolidation toward a frontrunner or the few remaining competitors.
6. Colorado and 15 other states vote on March 5, probably the end of the competitive primary season and start of the general election campaign.

KOA’s Marty Lenz and Jeana Gondek

“Unprecedented” 2024 Race for President and Impact on Colorado

By the time Colorado voters weigh in March 5, the race for president will be over, unless something “unprecedented” stops the Trump vs Biden trajectory. A media panel will consider what that means for Colorado politics, for example, does it help or hurt Republican Congressional candidates? The Colorado Water Congress 2024 Convention will host the event February 2 at the Hyatt Denver/Aurora with Pollster Floyd Ciruli and a panel of Colorado’s top political reporters. He will be joined by:

• John Frank – Axios
• Marianne Goodland – Colorado Politics
• Ernest Luning – Colorado Politics

See the Colorado Water Congress website for more information: https://www.cowatercongress.org/
Best, Floyd

Generation Z and Millennials Rate Climate Change Top Environmental Problem

In a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey in Orange County, wildfire was judged the top environmental threat by 51 percent of the public, with climate change third at 42 percent. Drought/water supply was rated second (49%). However, Gen Z and young Millennials (ages 18 to 29) were especially concerned about climate change (see table). More of them rated it the top county environmental threat (51%) compared to all other age cohorts and 9 points above the countywide average. They rated wildfire second (48%) and drought third (46%).

The Pew Research organization has published the most broadly accepted breakdown of age cohorts into generations with descriptive labels. The generations chart shows Generation Z ranges from 11 to 26 years old, born after 1997. Gen Z and younger Millennials are the most diverse and liberal generation and are becoming the largest cohort, overtaking Boomers. Boomers are now over 58 years old to 77. Generation X ranges from 43 to 58.

Demographic groups rating climate change the top environmental problem, at least 5 points above the average of 42%, are people who moved to OC after 2000 (49%), Latinos (47%), and Asian (47%), self-labeled liberals (66%), and Democrats (65%).

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.