Monday, January 22, 2024

Post Iowa: Is Nomination Contest Over?

Unless there is a major change between the January 15 Iowa Caucus and the March 5 Super Tuesday events, the race for the presidential nomination of the two major parties will be over. It may be over this week. Donald Trump’s Iowa landslide had the usual effect; also-ran candidates dropped out and candidates behind the frontrunner lacked momentum. If Trump is the nominee, does he help or hurt Colorado’s 3rd or 8th CDs, which may be close? Does he endorse Ms. Boebert in the 4th CD? If a third-party candidate/party such as RFK Jr. or No Labels is on the ballot, could they tilt the race away from the expected Joe Biden margin?

This blog posts a regular commentary and polling watch of the nominations – on to New Hampshire and South Carolina. It runs polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

January 2024 Favorability Poll

Trump and Joe Biden are closely matched in favorability and the general election.

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