Bennet Still Safe, Unless…

Senator Michael Bennet

Michael Bennet is still listed by the major D.C. pundits as a “likely Democratic hold.” But with the major caveat, how powerful is the downdraft from Washington? As Charlie Cook points out, midterm elections can be a disaster for the presidential party, including lost senate seats.

• Joe Biden’s approval is lower than Clinton’s at his first midterm (1994) and Obama’s (2010). 
• Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 House; Obama lost 6 Senate, 64 House.

Although the most competitive seats in the West are in Nevada and Arizona, and Bennet’s seat is listed as safe, he’s near the competitive line. After merging analyses from the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Charlie Cook’s The Cook Political Report, the latest chart from 538 shows Bennet is on the edge of a safe seat. Their comment is:

“Beyond New Hampshire, it’s not hard to imagine Colorado’s blue-leaning seat, held by Sen. Michael Bennet, also becoming competitive if things deteriorate further for Democrats.”

Read The Buzz:
Bennet Must Deal With Undertow
Bennet Vulnerable: CNN – No, Colorado Republican Poll – Yes
Republicans Face Long Odds Against Colorado’s Michael Bennet

Prediction: The Presidential Ticket in 2024

A frequently asked question in recent Colorado political expert panels is who will be on the presidential ticket in 2024. The most recent opinions from the respective party experts were:

Republican: If Donald Trump wants it, it’s his, but Governor DeSantis is the most frequently mentioned name among Colorado Republican activists. Vice President – a woman or person of color. If Trump’s primary picks for the 2022 midterm fail to win, he will be damaged.

Democrat: History and the odds say Democrats will stay with the 2020 team, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Too much risk and chaos to change.

Some outside observations:

• Democrat. Biden and Harris will be blamed for the loss of the Senate and House. He will decide on one term and Harris will be beat by Gavin Newsom. Warren would be strongest VP.
• Fusion ticket. Biden-Cheney
• Independent conservatives. Manchin-Cheney
• Trump family. Don Jr. and ? (Noem, Haley, etc.)

Alice Lee Main – SCFD Champion

Alice Lee Main was an important advocate of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) regional arts funding legislation from the first campaign in 1988 to the most recent in 2016. She joined with colleagues from around the metro area to support the SCFD. In Aurora, Alice Lee worked tirelessly to develop, manage and promote cultural venues for all of the city’s residents. She assisted government and economic development officials, such as Mayor Steve Hogan, in support of the arts. Alice Lee represented her city well.

Thank you Alice Lee.

Arvada Mayor Marc Williams, Aurora Mayor Steve Hogan, Greenwood
Village Mayor Ron Rakowsky and Denver Mayor Michael Hancock
with Popsicle at Mayors Launch SCFD GOTV, Oct. 4, 2016

Read The Buzz: SCFD – An Economic Powerhouse

Experts See Year of Political Change and Opportunity for Republicans

Colorado political experts described the difficult national politics creating opportunities for Colorado Republicans if they can focus on winning. In a panel sponsored by the Colorado Water Congress, Republican commentator and former Republican State Chair, Dick Wadhams, joined Mike Dino, consultant with national law and lobbying firm Squire Patton Boggs, to assess where the political action is most likely in Colorado.

Floyd Ciruli, director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, moderated and opened the conversation pointing out that 2022 is:

“…going to be a year of high-profile contests with uncertain results, but many expected changes. Control of Congress could change. We’ve already seen a senior congressional retirement with Ed Perlmutter and, of course, we have a new seat to fill in Adams and Weld counties. And, we are still dealing with a wild January with Omicron, inflation, a raging stock market and Russia – that’s a busy first 26 days of the year.”

Some key observations:

• The national environment could improve, but as of now, it is a major burden for Democrats.
• Although Governor Polis and Senator Bennet appear safe, Republicans’ ability to find strong opponents will be key to any possible competition.
• Republicans have the advantage in the 8th Congressional District, Democrats in the open 7th CD, but both could be competitive depending on the results of the primaries.
• Statewide races that could be competitive are Secretary of State (incumbent controversial) and the State Treasurer (incumbent not known).
• Modest hope for improvement of Republicans position in State Senate, none in State House. There is even less rural representation post redistricting.

Panel Sees Opportunities for Republicans

It’s been a long time since Colorado Republicans had a playing field tilted in their direction, but President Biden’s and the Democrats’ political difficulties and the deteriorating economy are offering a host of opportunities. Republicans are also benefitting from some homegrown good news from redistricting, with one senior congressperson already retiring and a very competitive new district.

How powerful this downdraft will be in Colorado for the Democrats and if the Republicans can take advantage were explored on a Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research panel on January 13, 2022. See The Buzz: 2022 Colorado Election: Trends and Predictions.

The Democrats problems are illuminated by every major metric watched in political Washington:

• Biden’s approval rating is at a new low on his one year anniversary in office – negative 14 percent.
• Republicans are now ahead in the generic ballot test (4%) and the average midterm pick-up for the non-presidential party is 26. They need 4 votes to win the House majority.
• Inflation is at a two-decade high (7.1%) and the market is in correction territory: Dow (-6%), S&P (-9%), NASDAQ (-13%) and Russell 2000 (-12%). (1-27-22)
• COVID-19 and Omicron still disrupt getting back to social, school and business routines.
• The Democratic brand was not helped by the endless public arguments last fall over the BBB package by the left and moderate wings of the party. Republicans at start of 2022 are now ahead in partisan identification by 5 points after being behind by 9 – massive swing to them during the second half of 2021. (Gallup 2022)

WATCH VIDEO

Previous The Buzz posts:

• The House is Lost for Democrats?, Sept. 16
• Midterms are Ugly for Incumbent President’s Party, Oct. 11
• Biden’s Approval Drops to Low 40s, Oct. 27
• 2021 Looks Like 2009 and Obama’s First Year Elections. Will the Midterms Be the Same?, Nov. 5
• Democrats Begin the Year Way Behind, Dec. 16

The New 8th Congressional District – Mostly in Adams County, Very Blue Collar

More than 60 percent of the approximately 721,000 residents in the new 8th Congressional District are residents of Adams County (63%), with a third (34%) in Weld County, although the district goes up to Greeley (108,000 residents). The largest city in the district is Thornton (141,000).

It has significant economic activity that reflects the more traditional working class version of the Democratic Party, including its large Hispanic population (39%). Agriculture, construction, trucking, manufacturing, oil and gas, and warehousing are major employers, along, of course, with the usual big government employers of schools, cities and counties. 

Republicans

Voter registration mirrors the state with a slight edge for Democrats (28%) over Republicans (25%), but the balance of power is held by unaffiliated voters (44%). However, voting performance is different than the state’s. In 2016, while Donald Trump lost the state by 5 points, he carried the voters in the new 8th district by 1.7 percent. In 2018, while George Brauchler was losing statewide by 6 points to Attorney General Phil Weiser, he carried the district’s votes by 1.7 percent.

Democrats

Democrats do carry the district’s voters, but in close votes, regardless of how they do statewide. In 2016, Michael Bennet won the state by 6 points and the district by 2.3 percent. Jared Polis got 1.9 percent in 2018 while carrying the state by 11 percent, and in 2020 when John Hickenlooper beat Senator Cory Gardner by 10 points statewide, he won the district by 1.7 percent.

Competitive

Competitive is the definition of the district, with probably a right lean on social issues and a working class orientation toward economics (i.e., protect jobs, increase wages and keep the cost of living under control).

Read The Colorado Sun: A deep dive into the electorate in Colorado’s super competitive new 8th Congressional District

Face of Colorado Republican Party: Boebert and Hanks

The midterm election provides a huge opportunity for the Colorado Republican Party in 2022. But, the most critical challenge is to disengage their candidates from Donald Trump and his retrospective vision of the 2020 election. Most of the party’s professionals realize this need. Unfortunately for their prospects, it is proving to be difficult as the start of Congress and the Colorado legislature shows. 

The core of Trump’s power in both legislatures is in their respective House caucuses. This week in Washington, D.C., the Liberty Caucus selected first-term Lauren Boebert as part of their leadership. She was made the communication chair. Boebert is a star on social media, an expert at grievance politics and a Donald Trump acolyte – a strong resume for 2022 leadership. She will, of course, be a flashing sign in every competitive House district in the country that Donald Trump owns the new House leadership.

Colorado’s House Republican caucus’ first day opening resolution praised Ron Hanks, one of their most extreme members, for his attendance at the January 6 riot, which he describes as a “peaceful citizens protest.” Mr. Hanks is running in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. The resolution went on to question if Joe Biden was the legitimately elected president and recommended a decertification of election returns to reinstate former President Trump. It was a front-page story in the Denver Post.

Not a good start to disengaging from the “Big Lie” and Donald Trump. House Democratic leader Alec Garnett shouted “holey moley,” reflecting his surprise and, no doubt, sense of good fortune. 

Lauren Boebert speaks at a news conference held by members of the
House Freedom Caucus on Capitol Hill in Washington | Andrew Harnik/AP

Ron Hanks reads a piece of paper in the House of Representatives at the
Colorado State Capitol, Jan. 12, 2022 | AAron Ontiveroz, The Denver Post