Democratic Wave Or Just High Tide

Colorado state Rep. Manny Rutinel, D-Commerce City, answers a question during a debate between Democratic candidates running for Colorado's 8th Congressional District, May 28, 2026, in Greeley, Colo. | Brice Tucker/The Greeley Tribune via AP

Even the Republican Congress recognizes their likely loss of a majority on November 3. The primary debate today is not if the Democrats will win but will the new majority just reflect a high tide of 10 or so seats or will it be a wave (around 30 seats) or a tsunami (40 or more seats).

After a week of conversations in Colorado with media, pundits and pollsters, opinion is split but leans toward just high tide. There also appears a majority view that Colorado could end up a 4-4 state on November 3 with no party in charge of Congressional seats.

Local opinion is skeptical of the national polling projections and points to the few truly competitive seats in the county and the impact of reappointment. They also point out the Republican money and local conditions such as candidate and campaign quality that make a difference. Their view that the competitive 8th district may not flip as an example of local conditions.

There was contrary opinion. Some pundits believe the national tide will deliver the 8th CD to the Democrats, and they will run at least close in the 5th CD (El Paso County).

National projections from a host of polling sites and major organizations such as the Hill’s DDHQ from the Hill and the FiftyPlusOne site have President Trump at record low approvals.

Democrats winning the generic ballot by 8 or more points and 30 to 50 seat pickup for the Democrats.

I lean to the wave side of the equation. The national polls are of one view: Dissatisfaction with Trump, inflation and Iran are at historic levels and will cost Republicans huge losses.

Progressive Manny Rutinel wins primary in battleground Colorado House district Politico, 06/30/2026