Predictions on New Congressional Delegation

The final map, which now goes to the Colorado Supreme Court, provides an outline of the politics of the newly designed congressional districts and what changes can be expected in the delegation. Of course, one new seat will have to be filled. In general, the map favors Colorado’s seven incumbents and creates a very competitive new district, the 8th. One significant factor outside of Colorado affecting the 2022 Colorado congressional election is the strength or weakness of national Democrats.

The final U.S. House district map now heads to the Colorado Supreme Court
Sept. 28, 2021 | 9News via Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission

A quick review of the new districts and the possible impact of the 2022 election, including the possibility of some changes, especially in the Democratic delegation:

District 1 – Diana DeGette is in Colorado’s safest seat. Her challenge is changing national politics that may nudge her to retire. The Democrats are likely to lose control of the House and Nancy Pelosi may be in her last term as speaker. Moving to the minority without Pelosi, a friend and mentor, could signal the end.

District 2 – Joe Neguse’s seat is also safe for him. His decision to keep running is at least partially a function of his lack of seniority in the institution than rewards it and the possibilities of making millions in the private sector.

District 3 – Lauren Boebert’s seat was greatly improved for Republicans by the final map – a major disappointment for Democrats. They believe Boebert could have been beaten in previous iterations of the map. Boebert is likely to be challenged, but was provided partisan help.

District 4 – Ken Buck appears secure, but the district may shift to its Front Range voters should he retire.

District 5 – Doug Lamborn only has primary problems. His seniority is accumulating. And he will have influence in the next House if Republicans control it.

District 6 – Jason Crow has become a star in the Colorado Democratic delegation and has a safe seat.

District 7 – Ed Perlmutter is in a newly designed and somewhat competitive seat, especially if the Republicans can take advantage of what may be a good year. Perlmutter, a senior Democrat, has to decide if he wants to campaign for nearly half his votes outside of his home base in Jefferson County. If he does, he’s still likely to win it.

District 8 – The new open seat with a substantial Hispanic plurality, but very competitive in its partisanship. The candidates will need to blend ethnicities, the cultures of two counties, and urban and rural lifestyles. The Democratic primary will likely be wide open, as well as the Republican. The district is very blue collar working class, and both parties will have to carefully select their nominees.

Although the map favors incumbents because of national politics and local candidates and campaign quality, there could be surprises, and a 4-4 map with Republicans picking up the new seat is possible. Even a 5-3 map for the Republicans, depending if the 7th CD of Perlmutter is competitive. Of course, the Democrats could sweep it and take the 8th for a 5-3 map of their own to start the decade.

See:
KOA interview on redistricting
Bloomberg Government: GOP, Latinos Could Post Gains in New Colorado Districts Map (1)
The Buzz: Boebert and Buck Will Go Home to Old Districts. Is This a 4-4 Map?
The Buzz: New Map Incumbent Protection. Is This a 5-3 Map?

Bennet Vulnerable: CNN – No, Colorado Republican Poll – Yes

Is U.S. Senate candidate Michael Bennet in trouble in his 2022 reelection? CNN and other rating groups leave Bennet and Colorado off the lists of their top ten Senate seats where a contest is expected. But, Colorado Republicans are hopeful the trials and tribulations of President Biden and the gridlock in Washington has put them in the game, even in Democratic-leaning Colorado.

The campaign of candidate Eli Bremer released a poll September 21 that claims generic Democratic and Republican candidates for Senate test only 2 points apart – 44 percent to 42 percent. The GOP firm tested the two candidates by name – Bennet and Republican Bremer – and they were 8 points apart (D40% to R32%), but 22 percent of the voters were undecided.

One of Mr. Bremer’s challenges will be getting beyond Donald Trump’s reputation and election issues to win the nomination. Trump lost Colorado by 5 points in 2016 and 13 points in 2020. He is a strong force in the party, but a drag statewide.

Bennet is clearly not as vulnerable as Mark Udall appeared in late 2013 and early 2014. His Republican challenger, Cory Gardner, was within 2 points in the named ballot tests.

See: 
Colorado Politics: Poll conducted for Bennet challenger Eli Bremer finds Republican “within striking distance”
CNN Politics: The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022
The Buzz: Is Bennet vulnerable?
The Buzz: Republicans face long odds against Colorado’s Michael Bennet
The Buzz: Trump candidate cannot win statewide in Colorado

Build More Ships

It is a good time to be into ship building. It is clear the primary great powers response to China’s aggressive claims and military build-up it is to unite and build more ships itself.

AUKUS – A new security pack by three allies in which the U.S. will assist Australia building nuclear powered submarines with UK support. The goal is to strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.

Quad – The first in-person meeting of the big four Indo-Pacific powers – Japan, Australia, India and U.S. – for “rule of law and freedom of navigation” in the Indo-Pacific. Although it’s a non-military arrangement, security elements are included and the four are now engaged in joint naval exercises.

U.S. Defense Spending – The House increased beyond the Biden administration’s request defense spending ($25 billion above). Bill passed with bipartisan support and added 13 new ships.

The reception for the AUKUS was mixed with the EU and several members critical, mainly for being left out. In Asia, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam were supportive, South Korea quiet as usual, and Indonesia critical. Of course, North Korea was hostile and China’s Wolf Warrior spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry repeated the usual formulas that this was Cold War thinking and the nations involved were pawns of the U.S.

The commentary from observers who recognize China’s aggressive behavior are mostly concerned as to how these new interests fit into existing architecture, such as the ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations). They also believe the American strategy is mostly focused on security and economic initiatives are critical – an area China has excelled in. Will America try to revive participation in the new version of TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), called the CPTPP, or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership? China has just applied.

Front to back; HNLMS Evertsen, JS Izumo, HMS Defender, HMS Queen
Elizabeth, HMCS Winnipeg, JS Ise, RFA Tidespring. UK Royal Navy Carrier
Strike Group 21 HMS Queen Elizabeth, HMS Defender, RFA Tidespring
and HNLMS Evertsen from CSG21 sails with Japanese ships JS Izumo and
JS Ise along with the Canadian ship HMCS Winnipeg in the Pacific Ocean,
Sept. 2021 | UK Ministry of Defence via AP

Read: 5 Things to Know About Biden’s Quad Summit With Leaders of India, Australia and Japan

U.S. Surpasses 1918 Flu Pandemic

When the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 crossed 675,000 a week ago, the pandemic became the deadliest disease in American history, surpassing the 675,000 (estimate) deaths from the 1918-19 Spanish Flu. At approximately 2,000 fatalities per day, the total deaths (9-24-21) are now at 703,000. Peru is a new entrant on the top list. Given its tiny population, the ratio of fatalities to population (32 million) is three times the five larger countries.

The slowdown in fatalities reported in May and June began to speed up with the arrival of the variants this summer. Beyond the devastation of peoples’ health, the impact on American politics and the economy have also been pronounced. Arguments have started in communities around the country concerning vaccinations, masks, passports and other health mandates. It has also damaged President Joe Biden’s approval rating, now down to 43 percent in Gallup with a 53 percent disapproval (46% in RealClearPolitics average). It has reduced his political capital with Congress and adds to the danger Democrats face maintaining their majority. Finally, the economy has stuttered while Democrats and others hoped the post-pandemic surge would be a smooth ascent.

See: Worldwide COVID-19 Deaths Double What’s Reported

Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In

The seven-county Denver metropolitan area economy continues to rapidly expand as measured by sales tax revenue growth, which year-to-date is up 18 percent over collections for the first six months in 2020. It is very good news for RTD and other sales tax-dependent governments, especially the hundreds of organizations who receive benefits from the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). At the end of last year, metropolitan tax revenue was off by about 3 percent due to the shutdown. But the recession was short and the recovery started by summer’s end, so projections of a 10 percent loss was not realized. 

If the current increase is sustained in the second half of the year, the SCFD (one-tenth of a cent sales tax) could add more than $10 million in revenue, jumping at years-end from $64 million in 2020 to a record $74 million this year.

See: Regional Sales Tax Revenue Continues to Grow as Economy Surges

Japan’s Ruling Party Begins to Pick Next Prime Minister

In Japan’s parliamentary democracy, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has begun its competition to designate a new prime minister. This person must lead the party into the parliamentary (Diet) elections in November (Nov. 28 at latest). The prime minister selected a year ago, Yoshihide Suga, decided to step down as his polling approval ratings sagged due to the Olympic Games and the continuing pandemic. Suga had been the cabinet secretary of Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, and took over after Abe resigned due to ill health.

Suga and Japan are key elements in the Biden administration’s plan to strengthen Asian alliances to counter the assertive foreign policy of President Xi Jinping and China’s Communist Party.

Four LDP leaders have announced their candidacy:

• Taro Kono – Abe’s defense minister and Suga’s reform minister is a frontrunner and has Suga’s endorsement. Georgetown graduate, fluent in English and a Twitter user.
• Fumio Kishida – Former foreign minister is also frontrunner due to leading a large LDP faction.
• Sanae Takaichi, rightwing former interior minister, and Seiko Noda, former gender equality minister. No woman has represented the party or been prime minister in its history.

Other candidates could be considered. The process is well-reported by Japanese media, but remains fairly opaque. The party election is essentially bargaining among the main party factions and leaders with public opinion important only to judge appeal in the next elections. Until Abe, a one-year term for prime minister was common. Voting among LDP will take place September 29 and more than 750 Diet lawmakers and rank and file LDP members will vote. If a second round is needed, lawmakers and a representative for each region (47) will vote. The final Diet vote is October 4. The next prime minister will be leading during a perilous period with the pandemic, China and climate change major challenges, requiring a strong government response. The relationship with the new American administration, which was off to a good start, will also be a key factor in success.

Candidates for the top post in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party pose prior
to a joint news conference at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan,
Sept. 17, 2021. The contenders are from left to right, Taro Kono, Fumio
Kishida, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda. | Kimimasa Mayama/Pool Photo

New Map Incumbent Protection. Is This a 5-3 Map?

The latest congressional redistricting map may garner the 8 votes it needs to be approved, but it mostly secures incumbents compared to earlier staff iterations. The Commission has settled for the status quo. Although surprises are possible, at least the latest draft doesn’t provide much potential for them.

The previous map, which made competition the key value, has been traded for comfort. Incumbents are now more secure with improved partisan margins. Comparing the partisan lean of the map reported on September 3 to the districts of September 15, incumbents are more secure and competition reduced. The two most competitive districts, including the newest 8th, both lean Democratic by amounts larger than the last map.

The map will no doubt see some changes before September 28 when it must be submitted, but the major change in creating the commission process was much effort for little effect.

See: Boebert and Buck Will Go Home to Old Districts. Is This a 4-4 Map?