KOA Pre-Election Interview: Colorado Gets National Attention

April Zesbaugh, Floyd Ciruli and Marty Lenz

In a pre-election interview, KOA’s April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz (June 29) reviewed the status of the Democratic senate primary.

Although the race became intense the last month and millions of dollars in advertising expended, the sense remains that John Hickenlooper has the final advantage.

High-Profile Race
This primary became surprisingly competitive and high-profile. It was in the New York Times this weekend, and recently the Washington Post, Politico, the AP and The Hill. John Hickenlooper, as the two-term, well liked former governor, was slated to win. But, missteps with ethics violations and misstatements on race issues put him on the defense. His debate performances the last three weeks were weak and the sense was that the momentum had shifted to his underdog challenger, Andrew Romanoff.

Hickenlooper Starts Campaigning
Hickenlooper finally started campaigning after being attacked by a negative and broadly criticized campaign commercial from Romanoff and two million dollars in negative ads from the national Republicans and incumbent Senator Cory Gardner. Hickenlooper, a prodigious fundraiser, spent more than three million dollars in defense with funds from the national Democratic Senate PAC and negative ads from an independent non-disclosed group. He emphasized endorsements from progressive national figures Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and local officials trying to shore up perceived weakness.

Poll Shows Hickenlooper Easy Winner
A recent non-probability poll showed Hickenlooper ahead by 30 points. The race is most likely much closer, but the poll did contain some other good news for Hickenlooper:

• Most Democrats believe he is the strongest candidate against Gardner – a top goal of Democrats
• They didn’t think he was unethical, but an ethical politician who had made mistakes (like most politicians)
• They didn’t believe he was too far right or left, but well-positioned
• Few Democrats knew much about Romanoff

Lots of Votes Still to be Cast
As of this weekend, more than 1 million ballots had been returned. In recent history, the last two days will produce huge returns, depending on the level of final voter interest and ballot chasing efforts of the campaigns toward the late voters, many unaffiliated, younger and new to the state.

Wins and Losses from Primary
If Hickenlooper survives the primary, it will have been a wake-up call that, although it may be a Democratic year in Colorado, the election will not be a walk in the park. Hickenlooper will also have been validated by Colorado Democrats, which was needed to stop being just a Chuck Schumer candidate. He will also be seen as the moderate having distinguished himself from the most liberal wing of the party. But he was damaged, handing the Republicans a new issue and highlighting his weak debating ability.

Of course, the Republicans preferred Romanoff. They wanted the most liberal candidate they could get having already campaigned against the socialists.

The primary still has many voters casting their ballots and it has reminded observers that there is a long time until November and many surprises awaiting us.

Ambassador Chris Hill and the Diplomatic Café

Chris Hill ended his June 24 Zoom broadcast with the news it was his final Diplomatic Café as he was beginning a new assignment not on the DU campus in 2021. He started the Diplomatic Café this quarter as a forum to discuss foreign policy issues, often with his diplomatic colleagues from around the world.

On April 29, Chris and I presented a session, “Politics and Foreign Policy in the Pandemic,” in which we discussed the impact COVID-19 was having on American politics and foreign policy, for example with China. It was the last in a long series of presentations Chris and I had with friends of the Korbel School and the Crossley Center. Our most memorable forum was on November 9, 2016, the day after the presidential election in front of a stunned audience in Maglione Hall. It was titled, “Election 2016 Fallout: National and International Ramifications,” and I had to quickly rearrange my presentation in light of the surprise win by President Trump. Chris and I then began presenting regular updates on how U.S. politics and foreign policy were changing, our first after one hundred days of the Trump administration and then annually each November. There was much material to cover and ready audiences.

Floyd Ciruli and Chris Hill present a post-election event,
Nov. 2016 | University of Denver photo

In 2017, Chris completed his nearly decade-long service as the Dean of the Korbel School. Among many accomplishments, including high-profile speakers such as former bosses President George W. Bush and Vice President Joe Biden, his most lasting will be building the new five-story Sie Center, made possible by a gift from Anna and John Sie. The groundbreaking in September 2014 was attended by former ambassador and graduate Condi Rice. The new 46,000 square-foot building, which opened in 2016, became the center of the Korbel School’s undergraduate, graduate and extensive community engagement programs.

Anna and John Sie speak at the groundbreaking of the new
building for the Korbel School, Sept. 2014 | Wayne Armstrong

Former President George W. Bush speaks at the Korbel
Gala as Dean Chris Hill listens, Sept. 10, 2013
 | Photo: University of Denver via YouTube

Since 2017, Chris became the director of the Center of Global Engagement, professor of practice, and regular commentator and writer on foreign policy for NBC, MSNBC, CNN, The Hill and mostly recently, Foreign Affairs. Chris has many friends in and around Denver who will miss his presence, but can still appreciate his media commentary.

Good luck Chris and Julie on the next adventure.

New York Times Covers Hickenlooper’s Stumbles

Carl Hulse, veteran New York Times reporter, now living in Kemmling, Colorado, describes in detail John Hickenlooper’s trials and tribulations over the last month, but concludes he’ll probably win the primary due to his name identification and the party’s primary interest in beating incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. But, the race could be closer than expected and Hickenlooper has been damaged as the general election candidate.

However, when asked about November, I thought President Trump is an anchor that makes it very difficult for “Cory to beat that tide.”

They say that Mr. Gardner, who early on endorsed the president for re-election, has not done enough to separate himself from Mr. Trump, who was an anchor on the senator’s campaign even before the president’s most recent decline in popularity.

 “There is too much drag on him from the president and it is getting even worse,” said Floyd Ciruli, a longtime pollster and Colorado political analyst. “I just have a hard time seeing Cory being able to beat that tide.”

Ken Rudin’s Political Junkie Podcast Features Colorado Senate Race

Ken Rudin, longtime NPR political editor, still produces his famous “It’s All Political” segment, now a podcast, called “Ken Rudin’s Political Junkie,” broadcast on radio stations around the country. He just posted his weekly podcast with Hickenlooper versus Romanoff.

Episode #334: House Primaries Claim Yet Another N.Y. Democrat
June 25, 2020

We may not have final results of Tuesday’s primaries, but we have seen some definite trends develop during these months of contests. Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections wonders if what happened with the GOP and tea party activists several years ago may be repeated, only this time with Democrats and their more restless, progressive base.

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper has been seen for the longest time as having a very good shot at ousting a Republican senator this year, a result that needs to happen if the Democrats are going to capture the Senate in November. But, as Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli says, several self-inflicted mishaps by Hickenlooper now put his nomination in next week’s primary in question.

And we repeat an interview we had five years ago with Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor, and 2004 presidential candidate, who candidly explains what went wrong in his bid for the Democratic nomination. Hint: It wasn’t because of the scream.

Listen here

Millennials and Generation Z Will Equal Baby Boomers and Older in 2020 Election

Photo: Raul Roa/LA Times

Millennials and Generation Z are the passion, energy and street troops behind the Black Lives Matter protests. They are the most diverse generations, best educated, most liberal and potentially most influential in the 2020 election.

Voters 40 years old and younger will be the largest group of eligible voters nationally, just edging out Baby Boomers and older. The pattern is likely to be similar in Colorado given the recent growth in young and educated residents in the Front Range metro area. But, will they vote?

The Pew Research organization’s latest report on generational voting offers the following observations:

• Millennials and Generation Z will be more diverse than previous generations

• Generation Z and Millennials are much better education (Gen Z – 57% enrolled in college, Millennials – 52%, Gen X – 43%)

• Much more liberal on key issues
• Like activist government
• Believe climate change due to human activity
• Blacks treated unfairly
• Same-sex marriage good for society

• Much more competent with new communication technology
• YouTube
• Instagram
• Snapchat
• Facebook
• Twitter

Primary Vote 30 Percent Unaffiliated, Breaks Democratic. Establishment Worried?

One week out from the June 30 Democratic primary, 755,866 ballots have been returned and 30 percent were from unaffiliated voters (225,716). They are voting 70 percent to 30 percent in the Democratic primary.

This appears to be a substantially higher Democratic vote than in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary. High interest and a large percentage of unaffiliated voters will provide a hard to predict result. With progressive and justice Democratic wins Tuesday night, the establishment should be worried.

John Hickenlooper (L) and Andrew Romanoff participate
in a televised debate, June 11, 2020 | Via CBS4 Denver

Hickenlooper Gets Up and Starts Running

John Hickenlooper appears to have acquired his footing and may have actually started to run for the Senate. After a disastrous three weeks of stumbles with an ethics violation charge and weak debate performances, the Democratic establishment and his campaign have started an offensive.

A Cascade of Missteps

• Hickenlooper stumbles in must-win senate race for Democrats, Politico, June 21, 2020
• Andrew Romanoff is closing the gap after John Hickenlooper’s stumbles, poll indicates, The Sun, June 18, 2020
• ‘A hot mess’: Hickenlooper stumbles into Democratic primary, Associated Press, June 18, 2020

Hickenlooper received a high-profile endorsement from Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic Party’s leading progressive and on the shortlist for vice president, which points out that the Washington establishment believes the critical issue is not insider progressive politics, but winning a majority of the U.S. Senate. A major blow to Andrew Romanoff, who is campaigning on the need for a progressive like him to be the nominee even if it increases the risk for the November election.

A significant amount of advertising has started in support of Hickenlooper from the PAC associated with his Washington, D.C. and other supporters. An independent expenditure media campaign attacking Romanoff has also begun.

And, the state’s Democratic establishment, including Governor Polis, who has been neutral to this point, but also Attorney General Phil Weiser and other Democratic officeholders, weighed in on the negative ad produced and placed by the Romanoff campaign attacking Hickenlooper on the ethics issue. The line repeated most often was from well-respected Democratic Party leader, Alan Salazar. As a recent AP story reported:

“Hickenlooper’s supporters say the goodwill he built up during two terms as Denver mayor and two more as governor will get him through. ‘He is many things, but personally corrupt and racially insensitive are definitely not among his flaws,’ said Alan Salazar, a former aide. ‘I am pretty sure the most Colorado voters know that.’”

This recovery effort is late. And many of the voters are new Democrats and mostly unaffiliated who did not vote in Hickenlooper’s 2014 election. They liked Bernie Sanders in the March presidential primary and they are up for grabs today.