Senate on Election Night

The Colorado Senate seat stopped being considered competitive on primary night, June 28. Darryl Glenn, a Ted Cruz conservative, county commissioner from El Paso County, was generally perceived as too conservative, too inexperienced and too under-resourced to win.

The Colorado Republican Party, like the national party, is still having difficulty finding a candidate that will attract its various factions, in particular its establishment. The polling averages give the seat to Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet by 7 points (which is the low end of the estimates). Nationally, the race to control the U.S. Senate is considered a toss-up. Close races are in Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Indiana.

The latest polls have Democrats ahead within the margin of error in four contested seats that could let them take the Senate (with a Democratic vice president), but with the slimmest margin (Nevada, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania). But, the advantage is razor-thin and will depend on turnout.

Election Final Forecast – Clinton Wins Close

The final polling averages have Hillary Clinton winning by at least 3 points and about 300 electoral votes (270 needed for election).

That result would be below the Barack Obama victory of 332 and 4 percent in 2012. But, it was expected that Clinton would have difficulty reassembling the Obama coalition in the face of a voter headwind of desired change. Clinton simply ran a stronger campaign against a candidate who injured himself in the primaries and never recovered. Donald Trump won his nomination alienating establishment and mainstream Republicans, along with major groups of voters, particularly minorities, who are key in a number of swing states.

The final polls aggregated by 538, Huffington Post and RealClearPolitics show a spread from 3 to 6 percent.

The forecasts agree with the aggregators that Clinton wins since near the end of a campaign they are driven mostly by polls. It is projected she will win from near certainty at Princeton Election Consortium (99%) and Huffington Post (98%) to 84 percent at the New York Times Upshot to a low of 72 percent at 538.

Colorado is also considered a lock for Clinton, with about a 2 to 5 percent spread.

Presidency on Election Night

We have been watching 13 states since Labor Day and at least 11 remain competitive (are within margin of error) today.

Many of these states have swung back and forth between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. These states in rank order by electoral votes are:

1. Florida – 29
2. Pennsylvania – 20
3. Ohio – 18
4. Michigan – 16
5. North Carolina – 16
6. Georgia – 16
7. Arizona – 11
8. Colorado – 9
9. Nevada – 6
10. Iowa – 6
11. New Hampshire – 4 

As the map shows, in the West, Trump appears ahead in Arizona and Nevada, but Clinton up in Colorado. Polls have tightened in most swing states the last week, but Trump’s path to victory is still considered much more challenging than Clinton’s. Also, her organization is built upon, and possibly better than, the Obama Election Day super machine in 2012.

FiveThirtyEight refers to electoral vote projection – 302 Clinton. RealClearPolitics projects 272 “no toss-up” Clinton.

To Hit the 2012 Presidential Turnout, 800,000 More Ballots Need to Arrive

Either Colorado county clerks and election officials are about to be swamped with ballots or Colorado will have a weak turnout in 2016.

The presidential race in 2012 attracted 2.6 million voters and the growth in registration indicated that 2.8 million voters would be participating in 2016. Currently, there are 1.8 million votes cast, so unless a million people turn in ballots in the next 36 hours, this will be a modest turnout.

Statewide Democrats and Republicans have turned out in near equal numbers, with a slight Republican edge (Republicans just caught up this weekend). But people don’t necessarily vote their registration. Both major party presidential candidates attract votes from the opposing party. And third-party candidates get most of their votes from the major parties.

Democrats dominate the metro area due to margins in Boulder and Denver. Arapahoe and Jefferson simply don’t produce the Republican vote of the last century.

See Secretary of State report (11-7-16) here

RealClearPolitics Gives Clinton Three-Point Win in Colorado

A number of partisan polls have been conducted in Colorado, mostly showing Clinton ahead by 5 points. Many are automated polls. Also, there are several polls showing it closer – one point to a tie.

The forecasts all expect Hillary Clinton to win in Colorado by somewhat less than Barack Obama’s victory of 5 points in 2016.

The Cultural District Campaign Waves Voters In

The vote to renew the Scientific and Cultural District (SCFD) is ending the campaign with maximum voter contacts. Phone bank, door-to-door literature distribution, an active social media and digital campaign, and a highly praised television advertisement are underway.

But most visible may be the sign wavers on busy metro area streets, often accompanied by Popsicle, the SCFD polar bear.

The SCFD renewal will be Ballot Issue 4B, located near the end of the long 2016 Colorado ballot. It will read:

DENVER METROPOLITAN SCIENTIFIC CULTURAL FACILITIES DISTRICT (SCFD) BALLOT ISSUE 4B:

SHALL THERE BE AN EXTENSION UNTIL JUNE 30, 2030, OF THE AGGREGATE 0.1 PERCENT SALES AND USE TAXES CURRENTLY LEVIED AND COLLECTED BY THE DENVER METROPOLITAN SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL FACILITIES DISTRICT THAT ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE ON JUNE 30, 2018, FOR ASSISTING SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL FACILITIES WITHIN THE DISTRICT…

Please vote to renew the SCFD and keep Colorado’s acclaimed program of culture for all in place for another 12 years.

Students Call the Election

A group of graduate students in a public opinion and foreign policy class at the Korbel School at DU made their election selection.

All of them believe Hillary Clinton will win. The majority believe the vote will be close. Sixty-seven percent believe it will be less than what Romney won by in 2012 (he won by about 4 million votes). One student saw a landslide.

And they believe (83%) that major polling averages (i.e., leading aggregators) will get the correct winner and be within the margin of error. One student thought they would be wildly off and one said they would be spot on. In my view, a very reasonable assessment of the status of the polls. November 8 will confirm or correct.