Clinton vs. Trump – A Close Race

A new Gallup poll released prior to the California primary and Donald Trump’s Hispanic judge outburst highlights that the respective presidential nominees have strengths and weaknesses that indicate the race could be closely contested.

Hillary Clinton wins on experience and ability to work with the opposition party. Trump is seen as a strong leader and can stand up to special interests. Clinton wins her strengths with much larger margins than Trump. That is one reason why by most polls she is a narrow frontrunner.

Hiroshima. Would We Drop the Bomb Today?

President Obama made a historic visit to the Peace Tower in Hiroshima, Japan, and spoke of the dangers of nuclear war in our era.

“Hiroshima and Nagasaki are known not as the dawn of atomic warfare but as the start of our own moral awakening.” (President Obama, 5-27-16)

Is there still a moral taboo against using nuclear weapons? Current signs are not good. Memories are fading and tensions are rising. Aggressive nationalism in Russia led President Putin to say he was willing to use nuclear weapons in his seizure of the Crimea. His military commanders discuss and prepare for their use on the European battlefield. North Korea is building as many weapons and delivery systems as it can afford, while China increases its supply and the U.S. upgrades its.

U.S. public opinion has also evolved from the view that opposed use of a nuclear bomb to their use now as an option acceptable to a large number of Americans under certain conditions.

In 1945, 53 percent of Americans believed President Truman made the right choice. By 2015, only 28 percent believed dropping the bomb was the right choice. But when public views of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing are framed by more recent war scenarios, Americans show themselves much more willing to consider use of nuclear weapons. One scenario proffered was that Iran kills thousands of American servicemen by sinking a carrier, and defeating Iran would cost an additional 20,000 American troops. In that scenario, 59 percent of Americans would be willing to drop a nuclear weapon on a city of 100,000 civilians to achieve surrender. (81% Republicans, 47% Democrats).

Reduction of nuclear stockpiles and non-proliferation were among Obama’s top goals. Outside of his agreement with Iran, it has been one of his biggest disappointments.

Austrian Election Highlights Nationalism Driving European Politics

Like the U.S. presidential election, European politics is being driven by a strong trend of national sovereignty and anti-immigrant sentiment. The May Austrian presidential election made clear the weakness of the center parties noticeable throughout Europe and the rise of anti-immigrant, anti-EU/Brussels political parties. The Austrian left, with a Green presidential candidate, beat the far-right candidate by less than one percent of the vote.

The election was characterized by many of the elements of the U.S. presidential election:

• The tone was less civil
• Many comments and positions would have been highly incorrect just a few years ago

A quick scan of the 2016-2017 election cycle in Europe makes clear momentum, if not majorities, is running with the right. The EU and open borders are on the defensive.

• In France, President Hollande has barely 30 percent approval and the National Front appears competitive in the 2017 national elections. 
• Germany’s Chancellor Merkel still holds her right, and the left parties, as of yet, do not appear to have a strategy to win a national election – but she and her party are clearly on the defensive. Merkel’s future is in question.
• Nationalistic forces in a host of countries (Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden and Great Britain) are threatening center- right and left governments. In Poland and Hungary, they now control the government. 

Steyer Spends Big in Bid to Control Colorado

Tom Steyer

Simon Lomax of The Complete Colorado, the state’s conservative media aggregator, has been tracking the expenditures of California billionaire Tom Steyer. Steyer’s expenditure for so-called research in Colorado approaches a million dollars. Colorado has been vulnerable for many years as an inexpensive state to promote causes, mount ballot issue campaigns and simply take over the state. Democratic money and interest groups took over it in the early 2000s with their Blueprint. Now, it looks like Steyer has joined their forces and amped up the money to make the state a platform for anti-fracking, anti-hydro carbon politics and policy.

Ciruli’s analysis:

“It’s an extraordinary amount of money for research and polling, which is typically a modest percentage of your overall campaign spending,” pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli said in an interview. “He’s getting into the granular kind of research that could be used in different races up and down the ballot, including the state legislature and congressional seats.”

“If you’ve heard of the Blueprint, this could be the Greenprint,” Ciruli said.

According to Ciruli, Steyer’s spending on Colorado research and polling – almost $800,000 so far this election cycle – will more likely be used to support candidates than a series of proposed anti-fracking initiatives for the statewide ballot this year.

“With that amount of money, he’s looking for vertical control of the ballot, taking over the state for his environmental agenda,” Ciruli said. “And it’s a pretty extreme agenda. It is anti-hydrocarbon, it is anti-growth in general.”

See:
The Buzz: Environmental Initiatives Struggle – It’s Not 2014
Inside Energy: CO Oil and Gas Industry Raises $6 Million to Fight Ballot Measures

Will Britain Leave the EU?

On June 23, British voters will decide to leave or stay in the EU. Polling forecasts have the stay forces slightly ahead, but it is expected to be close and final campaigning is intense.

Prime Minister David Cameron had to schedule a referendum as his parliamentary majority is narrow and his own party is strongly divided by the issue. If Britain votes to separate from the EU, not only will the decision begin a costly and undefined process, but the implications are significant well beyond the immediate effect.

• The vote will confirm and reinforce the nationalist and nativist trends sweeping the developed world today from Poland to France, Great Britain and the U.S. 
• If the UK votes to leave the EU, Scotland, which prefers the continental relationship, may schedule another vote to leave the UK. Scottish nationalists now control the region’s politics and governance and many are simply waiting for an excuse for another vote of separation. 
• The 70-year European and U.S. strategy of alliance will be weakened and NATO further endangered. It is already suffering from the neglect and forces supporting disunion. 

Libertarians Want to Attract Disenchanted Members of Both Parties – Valerie Richardson

Valerie Richardson in the May 26 Washington Times reports that in the lead up to their May 31 Libertarian convention in Orlando, Florida, optimism reigns. Libertarians are convinced or self-deluded that 2016 is their year to break out of the range of one million votes, less than 10 percent in the polls, and not bring on the stage for the presidential debates.

The base of both Democratic and Republican parties have dissatisfied members who may be interested in the Libertarian philosophy of limited foreign involvement, a free market economy and privacy in people’s personal lives.

Comment in the Washington Times:

“If you’re looking to walk away from Donald Trump, it [the Libertarian Party] looks like the place to go,” said political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “But there are Libertarian aspects within the Sanders forces also, whether it’s personal liberty and smoking marijuana to the desire for radical change, which is probably as much as anything what Sanders stands for.”

He added that “both parties have factions that are likely to be unsatisfied with the nominees and are looking for some place else to park. So this could be one of those extraordinary years.”

Republican Senate Field Now Five

After a chaotic petition campaign, it now appears a field of two candidates a few weeks ago is, after a series of court decisions, a field of five going into the June 28 primary.

Alexis Levinson in the National Review (May 26, 2016) points out Colorado is one of only two states where Republicans can pick up a senate seat (the other is the open Nevada seat of Harry Reid). But as she reports, the field of five little-known Republican candidates makes it unclear someone will emerge who can be competitive against well-funded Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet.

The 400,000 or so Republican primary voters will be substantially more than the 60,000 who turned out to select delegates in the presidential caucus. But, they will be sorting out a field of candidates with no statewide visibility or election experience beyond city council and county commissioner races.

Although Robert Blaha and Jack Graham are spending the most for TV advertising, there is still a lack of direction in the races as of June 1st.

Could Senator Bennet be beaten? Yes, but will the Republicans nominate a credible challenger? Unknown.

Comment in National Review:

Big-name Republicans and outside groups have thus far declined to play powerbroker to boost any one candidate. Without a Gardner-like figure to rally around, “the Republican party doesn’t have a real sort of sense of direction at the moment,” says Ciruli. Gardner, for his part, says he’ll wait to get involved until after the primary.