Will Britain Leave the EU?

On June 23, British voters will decide to leave or stay in the EU. Polling forecasts have the stay forces slightly ahead, but it is expected to be close and final campaigning is intense.

Prime Minister David Cameron had to schedule a referendum as his parliamentary majority is narrow and his own party is strongly divided by the issue. If Britain votes to separate from the EU, not only will the decision begin a costly and undefined process, but the implications are significant well beyond the immediate effect.

• The vote will confirm and reinforce the nationalist and nativist trends sweeping the developed world today from Poland to France, Great Britain and the U.S. 
• If the UK votes to leave the EU, Scotland, which prefers the continental relationship, may schedule another vote to leave the UK. Scottish nationalists now control the region’s politics and governance and many are simply waiting for an excuse for another vote of separation. 
• The 70-year European and U.S. strategy of alliance will be weakened and NATO further endangered. It is already suffering from the neglect and forces supporting disunion.