Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Democratic Wave Or Just High Tide

Colorado state Rep. Manny RutinelColorado state Rep. Manny Rutinel, D-Commerce City, answers a question during a debate between Democratic candidates running for Colorado's 8th Congressional District, May 28, 2026, in Greeley, Colo. | Brice Tucker/The Greeley Tribune via AP

Even the Republican Congress recognizes their likely loss of a majority on November 3. The primary debate today is not if the Democrats will win but will the new majority just reflect a high tide of 10 or so seats or will it be a wave (around 30 seats) or a tsunami (40 or more seats).

After a week of conversations in Colorado with media, pundits and pollsters, opinion is split but leans toward just high tide. There also appears a majority view that Colorado could end up a 4-4 state on November 3 with no party in charge of Congressional seats.

Local opinion is skeptical of the national polling projections and points to the few truly competitive seats in the county and the impact of reappointment. They also point out the Republican money and local conditions such as candidate and campaign quality that make a difference. Their view that the competitive 8th district may not flip as an example of local conditions.

There was contrary opinion. Some pundits believe the national tide will deliver the 8th CD to the Democrats, and they will run at least close in the 5th CD (El Paso County).

National projections from a host of polling sites and major organizations such as the Hill’s DDHQ from the Hill and the FiftyPlusOne site have President Trump at record low approvals.

Democrats winning the generic ballot by 8 or more points and 30 to 50 seat pickup for the Democrats.

I lean to the wave side of the equation. The national polls are of one view: Dissatisfaction with Trump, inflation and Iran are at historic levels and will cost Republicans huge losses.

Progressive Manny Rutinel wins primary in battleground Colorado House district Politico, 06/30/2026

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Newsom More Electable than Harris – California Democrats

Newsom and Harris 2021US Vice President Kamala Harris (R) waves alongside California Governor Gavin Newsom during a campaign event against his recall election at the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center in San Leandro, California, September 8, 2021. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

After six months of testing the presidential waters, California Democrats continue to say: Harris don’t run. In a March 2025 Berkeley IGS poll, Kamala Harris was in weak fourth place (9%) behind Gavin Newsom (28%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14%), and Peter Buttigieg (11%) with California Democrats when asked their preference for the Democratic nomination. (See blog Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats, 4-1-2026).

Politico reports in a September poll that “61 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are excited for Newsom presidential bid.” But more than half of Democrats (55%) would not be excited for a Harris run. More important, 59 percent believe Newsom could win a general election and only 9 percent believe Harris could. Hence, Harris neither has the passion of grass roots support nor the electability issue with more pragmatic Democrats.

RELATED:
Harris Don’t Run-California Democrats Apr. 1, 2026

Monday, October 12, 2026

Boulder County – First Supreme Court Case

Kathleen Kelley - Photo by Kelsey Brunner/For The Washington PostKathleen Kelley - Photo by Kelsey Brunner/For The Washington Post

Kathleen Kelley, former Colorado legislator and longtime Western Slope rancher and environmentalist, made the front page of the Washington Post dramatizing the Supreme Court’s opening case this term - Suncor v. Boulder. She and fellow ranchers suffered massive damages in 2025 from the Lee Fire in Rio Blanco County which they blame on climate change.

Boulder (the city) wants to sue oil companies in Colorado State Court for the damages of climate change. Needless to say, the oil industry and federal government argue this is a federal matter and local jurisdictions should be barred from state actions.

Boulder was on the defensive in the oral argument but it is likely just the first of many approaches to get compensation for climate change.

Should Big Oil Pay for Climate Change? WA Post Article Oct 4, 2026

Friday, October 9, 2026

Ballots Are Out: Will Colorado Move Left or Right?

 A ballot drop box is seen outside the downtown office of the Denver Elections Division on June 28, 2022. (Quentin Young/Colorado Newsline).A ballot drop box is seen outside the downtown office of the Denver Elections Division on June 28, 2022. (Quentin Young/Colorado Newsline).

Mail back voting is underway. Drop boxes open Monday. The state’s 14 ballot propositions could dramatically change the tax architecture and increase spending on education and conservation. Equally important, ten initiatives, mostly of conservative origin, are what I called “an alternative governing model using the ballot initiative process” (Axios).

In a John Frank writeup on the big election fights in Wednesday’s Axios, I point out that Advance Colorado has created “a powerful counter to the Democratic Legislature and the general liberal cultural zeitgeist.”

The director of the organization, Michael Field, has the influence of the TABOR movement of the 1990s but without the difficult and unpleasant Doug Bruce and his statewide network of volunteers. Field uses money and think tank research to access the ballot. In some cases, the threat of going to the ballot puts him, his perspective and interest group funders at the legislative table and in the governor’s office.

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Denver Press Club: Should Election Polls Be Banned?

Denver Press Club

The Denver Press Club is hosting an election session on polling at 6:00 p.m. October 13 at the Club, 1330 Glenarm Place, downtown Denver. Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and adjunct professor, will discuss polling’s current problems.

It has had a difficult summer. The Michigan and Wisconsin primaries’ polls were off by more than ten points. There have been reports of fake polls, dozens of new pollsters with no track record, and the end of live phone interviews.

Floyd Ciruli will address these problems with Axios reporter/editor John Frank and Jesse Paul of the Colorado Sun. Also joining are pollsters Lori Weigel of New Bridge Strategies and Alex Dunn of Aspect Strategic. Many European states regulate polling, but it is mostly the wild west in the U.S. Among Ciruli’s topics: Is polling in trouble, or is this year not much different than past midterm primary elections? And, as Coloradans get ready to vote, what should they look for to judge good, shoddy or take polls.

RELATED:
Polling Asserts Its Purpose Sep 28, 2026
Polling’s Difficult Season Sep 21, 2026
Should Polls be Banned? Sep 3, 2026

Tickets are free, but you can RSVP HERE.

Monday, October 5, 2026

National Dashboard: Republican Retreat

President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign rally at The Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala., Friday, Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign rally at The Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala., Friday, Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

As the midterm election nears its November 3 conclusion, Republicans are in retreat across the board. Although prodigious amounts of funds keep many campaigns competitive, they are mostly on the defensive. The media environment is flooded by stories of Republicans getting distance from Trump and the administration’s politics.

National Dashboard

The latest House midterm projections show Democrats winning between 25 to 43 seats. They need 3 to take a majority.

House Projections 09-2026

Key factors helping the Democrats:

  1. Trump approval now at or below 39%.
  2. The generic ballot test about 8 for Democrats.
  3. The persistence of the war in Iran and its effect on the economy.

RELATED:
Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down April 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

All Big City Mayors Need a Mamdani Picture

Johnston and Mamdani in New York for the Urban20 SummitJohnston and Mamdani in New York for the Urban20 Summit. Photo: Mike Johnston for Mayor
Mayor Johnston’s reelection campaign had a strong start and is carefully picking its campaign associates given the local political environment.

Monday, September 28, 2026

Polling Asserts Its Purpose

Harry Truman 1948 (L) Archibald Crossley, Elmo Roper and George Gallup
(R)

Using a random sampling and door-to-door interviewing 90 years ago, three pollsters predicted a Franklin Roosevelt win. He won in a landslide. Since that dramatic beginning, polling has become a multi-billion dollar industry that dominates politics and political reporting in most advanced democracies.

Do the purposes and benefits that the pioneers articulated still hold? The founding troika of George Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibold Crossley wanted to get the common American into the room where political decisions were made. They had a strong desire to counter special interests with popular opinion. Gallup, in particular, articulated the benefit of being able to focus on specific issues and providing insights between elections.

It took the missed election result in 1948 when Thomas Dewey was predicted to be the winner that Harry Truman said famously, “That’s not how I heard it,” to motivate pollsters to form an association to improve standards and address inadequacies in methods.

Polling’s purposes and credibility will be discussed at the Tuesday Morning Class (DCC) and Denver Press Club on October 13.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Georgetown Law Stepped Up During Watergate

As he boards the White House helicopter after resigning the presidency, Richard M. Nixon smiles and gives the victory sign. Photo: Bettmann Archive/Getty Images

Georgetown Law worked tirelessly in the late 1970’s to improve the legal environment post-Watergate. One example, in 1976 Sam Dash, who famously was chief counsel for Senator Ervin’s Watergate Committee, taught a strengthened ethics class.

During and after Watergate, Georgetown Law professors and alumni were heroes in the effort to strengthen statutory and legal norms and conventions that had been disregarded and violated. Recall that the Attorney General and White House Counsel went to jail with many other attorneys. Professors from numerous law schools assisted in court cases with Judge Sirica; they aided the Ervin and Rodino committees and worked for years on statutory remedies.

Georgetown Law and other top law schools who were so productive in the 1970’s have a model to help restore the legal and legislative guardrails as America moves beyond 2026.

Presidents & Georgetown Law

Monday, September 21, 2026

Polling’s Difficult Season

Floyd Ciruliat DU’s Maglione HallA record crowd of more than 250 people attend Amb. Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli presentation after the surprise 2016 election to review the polling and forecasting of the national and international fallout.

The Trump era has been especially challenging for public opinion polling and its media sponsors. The problem was dramatically highlighted in November of 2016 when polling had shown Hillary Clinton winning the voting population by 2 to 4 points (she won by 2.1%) and was projected to carry the electoral vote by 100 or more. She lost it famously by 77 in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I had the opportunity with the DU Korbel School Dean Christopher Hill to describe to a very unhappy audience what happened. See picture above at DU’s Maglione Hall.

This has been another difficult year for polling. Talking about polling’s purpose, usefulness and efforts to get it right will take place on October 13 at the Tuesday Morning Class(DCC) and later at the Denver Press Club.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Georgetown Law Reunion – Class of 1976

Georgetown University Law Center
Georgetown University Law Center

The law class of 1976 went through the Watergate scandal, Richard Nixon’s resignation, and the 1974 November Democrat landslide (49 new seats – Watergate Babies). Colorado politics was changed for generations with a new Democratic governor, Dick Lamm, a new Senator, Gary Hart, and a new Congressman, Tim Wirth.

Our class joins hundreds of reunion classmates in two weeks and many will ask if the 2026 election will bring a new congressional class dedicated to again restraining an Imperial Presidency.

My visit will also allow a quick visit to the White House and new ballroom and Lincoln memorial and the reflecting pool – old and new sights in the news.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Metro Denver Sales Tax Revenue Growing

Map

The sales tax revenue in the seven-county Denver metro area in 2025 was up 1.47% above 2024. That was a continuation of the modest improvement in 2025 after two years of flat sales tax growth in 2023 (0.5%) and 2024 (0.1%).

The total revenue collected in 2025 was $87.5 million from one-tenth of a cent provided the Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). As of July 2026, the District is slated to receive $51 million or a 2.7% increase. That will likely add about $2 million to the 2026 total revenue or $89 million. The District diverts for administration and statutory obligations about $2 million per year.

Denver Metro Area Sales Tax Revenue

Monday, September 14, 2026

Colorado Ballot Leans Right on Culture and Left on Taxes

Colorado State CapitolColorado State Capitol | Photo: Library of Congress Carol Highsmith

Not since 1992 and the historic TABOR Amendment has there been more important tax and spending propositions on the ballot. This year, the 14 propositions lean both right and left in terms of their purpose and supporters.

Ten of the propositions are cultural in nature. They all lean right and are sponsored by conservative organizations (e.g. Advance Colorado). Among the four propositions that are related to government funding three are backed by liberal groups and causes (e.g. Bell Policy Center, education and conservation groups). One conservative tax-related proposition is on the ballot, a protection of the flat tax which counters the graduated income tax proposal (Advance Colorado).

2026 Ballot Issues

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

School Districts Ask Millions in Operating Funds

Students head into Newlon Elementary School to begin the 2026–27 Denver Public Schools school year on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026, in Denver. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)Students head into Newlon Elementary School to begin the 2026–27 Denver Public Schools school year on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026, in Denver. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)

Colorado’s 3 largest school districts join more than a dozen others putting local property tax increases on the ballot for operating costs.

DPS wants $44 million mill levy override
Douglas $54 million
Jefferson $133 million

The funding is primarily for teachers’ salaries and other programs and services.

Jessica Seaman reports in the Denver Post about the school district requests and the obstacles they face. Political consultant Steve Welchert believes the measures must deal with a flat economy and a crowded ballot.

Also, along with a myriad of local tax measures, several statewide tax propositions attempt to raise revenue for K-12 education (Prop 195, NN). However, I pointed out that in spite of challenges, Colorado voters have been generous to schools and teachers in recent years.

“Affordability is the No. 1 issue politicians are talking about this election, but Coloradans historically tend to support increasing tax revenue for schools,” pollster Floyd Ciruli said.

“The public tends to be fairly generous with teachers and education – continuing to value it and continuing to increase the property tax load,” he said.

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Should Polls be Banned?

Denver Country Club

Polling has had a difficult summer. The Michigan and Wisconsin primaries’ polls were off by more than ten points. There have been reports of fake polls, dozens of new pollsters with no track record, and the end of live phone interviews.

Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and adjunct professor of polling, will address the problems with the Tuesday Morning Class on October 13 at the Denver Country Club.

Many European states regulate polling but it is mostly the wild west in the U.S. Among my topics: Is polling in trouble or is this year not much different than past mid-term primary elections? And, as Coloradans get ready to vote, what should they look for to judge good, shoddy or fake polls?

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Can Democrats Go for Eight?

The final U.S. House district map- 9News via Colorado Independent Redistricting CommissionThe U.S. House district map.
Image: 9News via Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission

As President Donald Trump's approval rating drops below 40% (FiftyPlusOne 36%) and the generic congressional ballot test hits 6 points and higher for Democrats, the possibility that Colorado Democrats could aspire to winning more than just the toss-up 8th district comes into view.

Colorado Congressional Districts

The DC-based rating services consider that after Congressman Gabe Evans’ district (Democrat Manny Rutinel) the next most vulnerable is Republicans Jeff Hurd on the Western Slope 3rd and Jeff Crank in the El Paso-based 5th. But for Democrats to be competitive it will require high quality, well-funded candidates with some of the populist anti-DC, anti-establishment politics that's shaking up congressional races today.

The Lauren Boebert 4th CD would be the most difficult to be competitive in based on past performance. But Democrats argue this is the year to shoot for the moon. And indeed they have some credible candidates in all three longer-shot races (Democratic candidates: Dwayne Romero, 3rd, Eileen Laubacher, 4th, Jessica Killin, 5th).

Also, with the likelihood that Senator Michael Bennet won't run again in 2028 after his 14 point loss to Phil Weiser for governor, no doubt has Joe Neguse, Jason Crow and Brittany Pettersen thinking about the U.S. Senate.

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

National Dashboard: Government of Uncertainty

President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order during an event in the Oval Office of the White House, August 27, 2026 in Washington.President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order during an event in the Oval Office of the White House, August 27, 2026 in Washington. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Peggy Noonan called it a presidency in a persistent state of precarity. Her takedown of his behavior was titled "Trump is starting to look precarious". Americans agree. In the last month he has lost support and is now 40% approval on the conservative website RealClearPolitics. On the more neutrally curated site FiftyPlusOne, his approval is 36% with disapproval of 60% - a 24-point net negative, and a record low.

National Dashboard 08-30-2026

The latest House midterm projections show Democrats winning between 23 to 29 seats. They need 3 to take a majority.

House Projections

Key factors helping the Democrats:

  1. Trump approval now at or below 40%.
  2. The generic ballot test about 6 for Democrats.
  3. The persistence of the war in Iran and its effect on the economy.

RELATED:
Midterm Panic July 22, 2026
Trump Doesn’t Have the Cards May 26, 2026
National Dashboard: Iran Takes Trump Down April 6, 2026
National Dashboard: Trump in Retreat Feb 23, 2026
Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval Dec 15, 2025
Trump Approval Collapses and November 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Generation Gap is Wide

D1 candidate Melat Kiros' supporters cheer as a second round of election results dropped in her favorD1 candidate Melat Kiros' supporters cheer as a second round of election results dropped in her favor, widening her lead over incumbent Diana DeGette. June 30, 2026.
Photo: McKenzie Lange/CPR News
Current politics is roiled by a significant generational conflict most dramatically between Gen Z (18 to 26 year olds) and Baby Boomer (59-80). They selected different candidates in primaries and the value differences shown below are stark: patriotism, belief in God and religion, having children, believing America is the best place to live, and preference for socialism.
Generation Gap Table

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Origin and Purpose of SCFD Tiers

Map

The concept of three funding tiers in the metro Denver area Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) evolved after the district’s initial legislation was rejected by the Colorado legislature in the mid-80’s. Major cultural groups were unable to reach an agreement on the levels of funding prior to the first State Senate committee hearing.

The primary purpose of the legislation was to replace state and municipal funding for Denver’s major regional cultural facilities – the Denver Natural History Museum (now Denver Museum of Nature and Science), the Denver Zoo (now Denver Zoo Conservation Alliance), the Denver Art Museum, and the Denver Botanic Gardens. This group became Tier I with a set formula and an agreed division among the participants.

Sponsors and supporters recognized that as a regional tax district, the six suburban counties (now seven) should participate directly in funding and receive support for their local cultural organizations. They became the original second tier (later designated Tier III). Counties received funds to participate relative to the amount they contributed to the regional tax and within the purpose of the statute. Local elected officials (county commissioners) controlled distribution of those funds.

But a group of Denver-based cultural organizations wanted to share in the possible new tax dollars. The group was led by the Colorado Symphony and the Denver Center for the Performing Arts (DCPA) and included the Arvada Center for Arts and Humanities, two opera companies (Central City and Denver), the Denver Ballet (now Colorado Ballet), as well as the Children’s Museum. They were privately run nonprofits (except for the Arvada Center) that had received some government grants but not regular tax dollars. Additionally, they lacked broad regional appeal and had little track record of using tax dollars. The dominant impression of these group was that they procure their own support, mostly from wealthy patrons and donors.

The regional tax concept for cultural facilities was already a stretch for most Colorado legislators. Even though the four main Denver facilities had received regular tax funding from Denver and appropriations from the State – both funding streams ended or were greatly diminished in the 1980’s. This new group, which became labeled in the legislation as Tier II, had several statutory rules attached to make their entrance onto the tax rolls more acceptable and accountable. An annual threshold of $700,000 per organization was set and the amount received was based on an audience and budget audit. The intent was to promote access by creating an incentive for increased attendance, and also to demonstrate that the public attached particular value to the facility (i.e., ticket and attendance revenue). Budget requirements were important to ensure each would continue private development efforts. The concept would help attract audiences and avoid stagnant, narrow missions.

Does the Tier concept maintain value today?

  • Tier I continues to reflect the largest public investments in cultural infrastructure in the seven-county Denver metropolitan area. The Tier I institutions (now numbering five with the addition of the DCPA) are both the repositories and stewards of the largest, most visited and valuable cultural assets in the metro region, charged with processing, interpreting and disseminating the region’s cultural heritage.
  • The collections held by the DMNS, DAM, DBG and Zoo within Tier I are huge curations of art, natural history, plants and animals, and monetarily worth a staggering amount (billions). But beyond that, they play a vital role in maintaining and sharing the communities’ cultural identity and history.
  • The physical structures Tier I organizations inhabit have been enhanced and expanded over the years through significant investment by private donors and Denver property taxpayers. They are cultural monuments and serve as the central social infrastructure in the community.
  • Tier I is still highly favored in public opinion. The organizations are identified as the best known and most popular cultural institutions in the region in repeated polls and most recently in a 2025 poll (see chart below).
Voters Rating Table

Ultimately, SCFD awards are public taxpayer dollars. When the SCFD goes to voters for its periodic extensions, it must compete against other priorities for public funds. Organizations must justify the extraordinary grant of tax funding and demonstrate continued value to voters.

Monday, August 10, 2026

SCFD: Permanent or Term Limited

CO State CapitolPhoto: Steve Gadomski / Adobe Stock

Should the Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) tax be permanent or continue the use of voter-approved term limits?

  1. The use of a term limit on the SCFD’s 0.1% sales tax was begun because many political leaders and others were concerned about giving permanent dedicated tax funding to potentially hundreds of mostly non-government entities with private boards, many with little or no track record of receiving government funding (aside from occasional grants for specific projects) without a voter check on the program. Legislation behind the term limit was to increase accountability of tax revenue spending over a specific time period. Use of a term limit provided an argument that if there was misuse of funds or if the program failed to achieve its purpose, voters could end the tax.
  2. The term was seen as a major incentive to keep the recipients and programs focused on their cultural missions while also providing maximum accessibility and careful money management.
  3. A term was also used to provide certainty in funding over a specific time period for planning and financial commitments to support major exhibitions, performers, and other programming.
  4. Most of the SCFD statutes’ funding was not a grant program. It was considered important to place the formulas in the voter-approved statute to avoid the experience of the 1980’s National Endowment for the Arts’ grants controlled by the tastes and preferences of art connoisseurs, interest groups, and politicians. Formulas avoided authorities’ ability to skew the funding for unspecified purposes. Only the legislature and voters could change them, not at a terms renewal.
  5. A renewal at the end of a term limit provides a period where the statute and formulas can be improved and updated by the legislators and voters.
  6. When asked a choice question in a past-poll, voters preferred a term limit over permanence. (See table below.)
Voters’ Views on Sunset Provision Total Dem. Inde. Rep.
Sunset: The cultural district has a sunset provision that means every twelve years or so metro residents get to vote for or against extending the tax. They have extended it three times in elections starting in 1988. [ROTATED].
The district tax should be made permanent. The voters support it, it’s needed and it works. We don’t need more elections to extend the tax. 20% 24% 16% 19%
The district tax should be voted on every 12 years or so to make sure it keeps working the way we want it to and is still needed. 78 72 82 78
Ciruli Associates/CATZ 2013