Could Boebert be Beaten?

LEFT: U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert. (Photo by Shaun Stanley/Special to The Denver Post) | RIGHT: Eileen Laubacher, the Democratic nominee in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District in the 2026 election. (Campaign handout)

Colorado’s High Plains 4th Congressional District is the Republican Party’s safest seat. President Trump, while losing Colorado in all three of his elections, carried the 4th CD, including most recently by 58 percent to 40 percent for Kamala Harris (l54% Harris to 43% Trump).

Denver Post’s John Aguilar wrote a background on the 2026 race between Lauren Boebert and the new Democratic nominee Eileen Laubacher. His question was, “Is there a competitive contest?” The answer from CSU Professor Kyle Saunders and myself was possible but very unlikely, primarily because of the partisan advantage Republicans have in both registration and voting behavior.

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli also cautioned that cash alone may not be able to overcome the reality of the district’s political makeup. Republicans have 100,000-plus more registered voters than Democrats. “I’m not sure that money is the actual issue in this district,” Ciruli said.

Aguilar’s analysis pointed out:

• 2026 is likely to be a good Democratic year for winning House seats.
• Laubacher has $10.3 million compared to Boebert’s $1.1 million.
• Boebert has antagonized President Trump (Epstein investigation and support for Republican dissident Tom Massie). Is the base angry enough to send a Democrat to DC?
• Boebert did not secure an appropriation for a water pipeline in the District and could have even less clout in the next House.
• In spite of some advantages, Laubacher will need a very strong campaign message and ground game targeted at independents, moderates and people ready for a change. And a lot of luck.

Laubacher can pound themes on the campaign trail that are particularly salient to the largely agricultural district, Ciruli said, like high fuel and fertilizer prices in the midst of the U.S. war with Iran and added costs for farmers due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “You have to convince the farmer in Sterling or in Fort Morgan that they’re not getting enough representation and they need to move to a Democrat,” he said.

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