President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, July 16, 2026, in Washington. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP)
The average first midterm election loss for the President’s party since 1962 has been 22 House seats. The following chart shows some of the exceptional midterm swings.
Is President Trump heading toward a 40 to 60 seat tsunami, or a more restrained 20 to 30 seat shift with a change in control of the House? Could the Democrats fail to win a majority?
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