Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent

Denver Health Medical Center | Photo by Katie Wood/Denver Post

Sales tax in Denver is rapidly approaching 10 percent of the sale price. It currently stands at 8.81 percent, reflecting state, special districts, and city taxes.

Several new sales taxes are being proposed with the largest from Denver Health of .34 percent, which would raise Denver to 9.15, making it the highest sales tax city in the Denver metro area. The new rate would jump to 9.61 if all new taxes were approved.

The Metro area sales tax collections have been flat for a year and are now declining, reflecting a falloff in population growth and economic activity. Recent polls show when the public is asked, affordability is a major complaint about living in Denver, along with inflation. Affordability is, in fact, one of the main reasons people cite for moving out of Denver. Taxes affect the affordability of an area and sales taxes have a negative impact on local consumers and can be especially burdensome on the low-income population.

Denver has been rapidly raising its sales tax rate the last five years from 3.6 percent in 2018 to the 4.81 today, with significant increase for climate programs, homelessness, college scholarships, food security, mental health and parks.

Will Denver voters finally say no to new taxes?

RELATED
Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines June 24, 2024

Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines

The Denver metro area sales tax revenue stopped increasing in 2023 after several years of robust growth. As of the first four months of this year, metro sales tax revenue has declined half a percent.

State government will be affected since the seven county Denver metro area represents more than half of Colorado’s population and economic activity.

RELATED:
Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out March 13, 2024
Denver Metro Area Tax Revenue Slows Sharply October 2, 2023
Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In September 22, 2021

Presidential Race Dead Heat Pre-Debate

CNN to host 2024 Election Presidential Debate June 27

President Biden has closed the popular vote race with Donald Trump but is still behind when third party candidates are included and in battleground states as they enter the June 27 debate.

Third-party candidates now get 10 percent, down a couple of points since January and a likely trajectory as the race gets closer to November. RFK Jr. remains the pack leader with 7 points. Biden is behind in four battleground states and even in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s close in Pennsylvania (down 2 points).

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallop, and other credible polls.

If the election was today, Biden would most likely lose. The current polling reflects about a 4 to 5 point decline in Biden’s position compared to November 2020 when he won the national vote by 4 points (51% to 47%) and all six of the battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

RELATED:
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over? 1/3/24

Not Expecting Much Change in Colorado State Legislature

Colorado State Capitol | Photo: Library of Congress Carol Highsmith

Democrats are safe in both the House (super majority) and Senate (near super majority). Very little or no partisan movement is expected. But there will be a fight to gain or stop super majority. In Senate, Republicans must hold their 12 seats to stop Democrats from super majority (23-12). They have to gain 3 seats in House to end Democrats super majority (46-19), not likely.

Context

• Republican state chair running for Congress. Poor job of state legislative recruiting, not much fundraising.
• Democrats have primary won with far left House members but safe seats.
• Action this year is in Congressional races with three Republican open seats (primaries between MAGA and Establishment).
• Many ballot propositions reflecting tax and cultural battles left over from legislature.

READ: The Center for Politics - 2024’s Battleground State Legislative Chambers

Colorado Primary to See New Republican Team: Traditional vs. MAGA

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The June 25 Colorado primary will settle the contest between Colorado’s traditional and historically successful Republican Party and the new Donald Trump-inspired MAGA wing. Early predictions now confirmed by polling and funding were that the traditional wing would have their strongest odds in the Western Slope 3rd district with Jeff Hurd and the Colorado Springs 5th district with Jeff Crank. A recent poll also supported the expectation Lauren Boebert will survive her seat switch and gain a win in the six-person 4th CD primary.

The three questions raised by Colorado’s surprising three open Republican congressional seats at the start of the year were:

1. Who would dominate the Republican primaries – conservative candidates from the mainstream Republican Party or MAGA? It appears two traditional, one MAGA.
   • 3rd Jeff Hurd (Ron Hanks)
   • 4th Lauren Boebert (?)
   • 5th Jeff Crank (Dave Williams)
2. Would Boebert survive shift from 3rd CD (she was losing after 2 terms) to 4th CD. She’s ahead of field.
3. Can a Democrat win any of the races? Uphill, but Hurd most vulnerable in less Republican 3rd CD against Democrat Adam Frisch who has millions of anti-Boebert dollars to spend.

RELATED:
Colorado Surprise: Congressional Battleground 1/30/24
Don’t Write Boebert’s Obit 3/20/24
Battle Between Republicans: MAGA vs Establishment 3/25/24
Three Open Colorado Seats – Could the Democrats Win One? 4/10/24

Americans Divided on Banning Sleeping in Public Spaces

Denver Mayor Mike Johnston visits homeless encampment
Photo: Kathryn Scott, The Denver Post

Although the public, especially in urban areas lists homelessness as one of their top concerns, they are divided on one of the main strategies cities use to manage the problem – namely a ban of sleeping in public space. A new Marquette Law School Poll on recent Supreme Court oral arguments found that Americans were divided 47 percent in support of a city being able to ban sleeping, in public space, and 36 percent opposed.

As expected, partisans disagreed. Only about a third of Democrats (36%) supported a ban whereas 63 percent of Republicans were in support.

But the biggest gap in opinions was seen between under and over 30 years old. More than half (58%) of Generation Z opposed a sleeping ban but among older Americans (60 years old plus), 59 percent support a ban and only a quarter (23%) oppose.

The challenge for urban Democratic leaders is the public’s demand to address homeless and the street population but the resistance of young Democratic voters to use a public sleeping space ban as a tool.

Western Leaders Face Unhappy Public

Argentina's President Javier Milei speaks during a rally organised by the Spanish far-right Vox party ahead of the European elections, with various far-right leaders, in Madrid, Spain, May 19, 2024. REUTERS/Ana Beltran

With rare exceptions the public in democratic countries are unhappy with their top elected leaders. The few leaders with more approval than disapproval in a new Morning Consult poll in nominally democratic countries are populists in India, Narendra Modi, Argentina, Javier Milei, and Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Milei, the Argentine anarcho-capitalist who most recently insulted the Prime Minister of Spain and his wife, continues to command public favor by providing entertainment and nationalism in a crisis-ridden country.

As embattled as President Biden is, he has the highest approval among US allies and Western European democracies. At 39 percent, he exceeds Scholz in Germany (26%), Sunek in the UK (25%), Macron in France (23%) and Kishida in Japan (15%). Centrist leaders are facing dour electorates and populist opponents.

Third Parties Could Have Big Impact in 2024

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. kicks off petition drive to get on Colorado ballot at Aurora rally | Photo: Ernest Luning/Colorado Politics

National polls and history show that when the major parties nominate two unpopular presidential candidates, third parties become more attractive and can make a difference in the electoral vote. In 2016, third parties received nearly 6 million votes. In the three most closely contested states, the liberal third party candidate received more votes than Clinton lost by. Third parties were held to 2 percent nationwide in 2020 and 3 percent in Colorado (see table below). But they have 14 percent of the current national polling average (RealClearPolitics). RJK Jr. leads with 10 percent.

Third party candidates represent a serious challenge to Biden, especially in battleground states such as Arizona and North Carolina. The first significant challenge a third party must overcome is ballot access. The Green Party has access to most states’ ballots.

Although RFK Jr. may get on the Colorado ballot, the state is not likely have a serious presidential contest. But, with a 48 percent unaffiliated voter registration, a record number of minor parties (8) attracting a fragmented electorate and a history of voter independence demonstrated in 1992 when Ross Perot received 23 percent of the vote, a third party candidate could expect considerable support. In the recent Super Tuesday primary, the two major party frontrunners lost a total of two-fifths of their fellow partisans (33% for Haley and 8% uncommitted).