Thursday, October 27, 2022

Lots of Late Polls, Questions on Sources and Methods

As Colorado balloting starts polls begin surfacing claiming candidates are doing better than the conventional wisdom claims. One just appeared to show Joe O’Dea in a tight Senate race with Michael Bennet and another, Adam Frisch, is beating Lauren Boebert by five points in the 3rd Congressional District.

The O’Dea poll is from the Senate Opportunity Fund (9-27-22) a PAC for Republican Senate candidates. A host of polls since the summer show Bennet ahead by at least 6 points. The current average from Real Clear Politics’ site polls is 8.

The Frisch poll was conducted by Center Street PAC (10-6-22) and polled 144 registered voters (some not in the district), showing a 45 to 40 percent advantage for Frisch. The last credible poll showed Boebert up 2 points (the closeness of which was a surprise).

Late Poll in Colorado

It is possible the two polls are not outliers and captured trends, O’Dea and Frisch may even win. It will be major news if it happens. Late conducted polls are mostly fundraising devices and efforts to change the expectations of elites, especially in the media.

READ: POLL: Lauren Boebert Tied With Adam Frisch in Colorado-03 Among Registered Voters, But Frisch Struggles to Raise Awareness

SOF Polling (10/4/22) Memorandum

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