Monday, July 25, 2016

Bennet Leads Clinton in Colorado by 7 Points

The rule has been that so goes the presidential race, so goes down ballot, and for the Democrats, although Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by 8 points in Colorado, she is only attracting 44 percent of the electorate (see July 19, NBC/WSJ Claims Clinton Up 8 Points in Colorado). Her advantage is mostly a reflection of how poorly Trump is doing (36%). But Michael Bennet is currently 7 points above Hillary Clinton. He is averaging 51 percent against his Republican rival, Darryl Glenn (see July 19, Darryl Glenn Wins Convention Spot, But Losing in Race Against Michael Bennet). Both Trump and Glenn are only capturing a third of the electorate. For all the talk about down ballot Republicans trying to disengage from Trump, Bennet has disengaged from Clinton. Many factors explain the differences in those numbers, but one observation stands out, not only may Clinton’s weak election percentage not hurt Bennet, it is conceivable he could help her.

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