Schiff Starts Ahead for Final Senate Run

Porter, Schiff and Lee | Photo: Richard Vogel, AP

A PPIC poll of mid-November has Democrat Adam Schiff up 5 percentage points over Katie Porter in the March 5 primary. Republican Steve Garvey is third with 10 percent and Oakland Democrat Barbara Lee in fourth with 8 percent.

The pattern of Schiff and Porter leading has held since public polling started a year ago. Garvey now appears to be in a solid third place with Lee slipping to fourth.

In the new year there will be about 8 weeks to election day. The massive advertising will likely begin slowly and then build into February. Will it go negative? Expect movement in the numbers. About 30 percent of voters are undecided or weakly backing various long shots. They are likely to shift around but as of the end of the year, Schiff has a lead.

Chicago Deja Vu

The 2024 Democratic Convention will be in Chicago. Democrats have mostly avoided Chicago as a convention site since the 1968 disaster. Although there won’t be Yippies and it’s unlikely to see a police riot, there are a number of parallels under way.

• The Democratic incumbent president is in deep trouble. Approval is at record low; polls show he loses general election.
• An anti-war movement with youth demonstrations is dividing the party.
• The likely Republican nominee Donald Trump is considered by Democrats many times worse than Richard Nixon.

Can Joe Biden get to the August 19 convention? Could there be a March 31 (1968) speech: “I shall not seek, and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your President?” Although the Democratic Party’s leadership as of December is holding strongly for Biden, there is a daily onslaught of negative polling and bad political news.

This blog will begin a regular commentary and polling watch of the nominations starting with the Democrats – On to Chicago.

The Presidential Polls
The figure below shows the current running polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website and other credible polls.

On Saturday, December 9, the Washington Post published its latest poll that had Biden’s approval at 37 percent; he’s losing to Trump by 4 percentage points (47% to 43%) and all third-party and independent candidates take 17 percent.

Confidence in Government in Orange County

Photo: www.ocfa.org

Trust in government has been measured for decades and a number of general tendencies have been repeatedly documented. The trends are noticeable in a recent survey by Ciruli Associates among Orange County residents concerning confidence in governments’ response to wildfires.

• The farther away a government is from citizens, the lower the level of confidence. Local government is nearly always more trusted than state or especially federal government. As the table below shows, strong confidence in the government’s responsiveness to wildfire declined from 27 percent (“very confident”) in local government to 13 percent for federal, a 52 percent drop.

• Partisanship is another influence in peoples’ trust in government with Republicans usually showing less trust. In this poll at each level of government, partisanship has significant sway. For example, the difference between Democrats and Republicans is less at the local than at the state and federal level but still significant. High levels of confidence in local government drop from 34 percent among Democrats to 25 percent for Republicans or 9 points, and the drop off at the federal government level is nearly twice as large at 17 points.

• Familiarity with the level of government personnel and activity influences the amount of trust as does the partisan identity of the level of government. In California, local government is perceived as more nonpartisan, whereas the state and federal government are perceived as partisan, currently Democratic.

• The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Wildfire is Threat in All Five County Supervisors’ Districts

Wildfire is especially threatening to areas that interface with natural areas and indeed a new Orange County (“OC”) poll by Ciruli Associates shows the east side residents closer to canyons, open spaces and mountains believe wildfire is the county’s top environmental problem (51% countywide and 66% in District 3). But more than two-fifths of residents, county wide believe wildfire is a major problem and the smoke and pollution it produces are threats of major concern.

Although OC is a mostly suburban county, the interface with open space, forest areas, and ravines is widespread. And, of course, smoke and pollution during wildfire season impacts the entire county.

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Colorado’s 2024 Congressional Battles from Border to Border

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Although the presidential campaign will skip over Colorado, one state Donald Trump’s toxicity is well established, there will be a host of contests in its eight congressional seats. Lauren Boebert’s 3rd CD is a national target, the newly open 4th CD will be a Republic primary battleground and several other seats will be in play. The following is a rundown as of mid-December 2023.

Wildfire and Drought Evade Partisan Differences

Orange County Coast

A new survey in Orange County (“OC”) shows that the public’s rating of wildfire and drought as the two most important environmental problems in the county is not impacted by partisan identification. Not surprising, climate change, which is rated third, displays a 43-point difference between Democrats and Republicans, with OC registrants of “no party preference” (NPP) positioned in between the partisans.

As the mayor of San Clemente, California, said, loss of sand and wildfire brings our community together. Extreme weather events are creating conditions for policy makers to invest in prevention and mitigation strategies.

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com

Lahaina Raises Wildfire Awareness

Waiola Church in Lahaina, Photo: Matthew Thayer/The Maui News via AP, File

Wildfires in California, due to their scale, duration, and frequency, are high in the public’s awareness. In a late July early to August survey in Orange County, wildfires were second among the three top-rated environmental problems identified by residents. After the news reporting of the Lahaina fire in Maui on August 8, the wildfire response jumped 11 percentage points and moved wildfires ahead of drought/water supply, as the top environmental problem.

If extreme weather events such as drought and wildfire continue, public concern and desire for action will increase.

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was conducted from July 20 to August 27, 2023. A total of 573 interviews were conducted before the fire was reported on August 8, 2023, and 427 after. It had a margin of error of ±4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.