Thursday, December 14, 2023

Chicago Deja Vu

The 2024 Democratic Convention will be in Chicago. Democrats have mostly avoided Chicago as a convention site since the 1968 disaster. Although there won’t be Yippies and it’s unlikely to see a police riot, there are a number of parallels under way.

  • The Democratic incumbent president is in deep trouble. Approval is at record low; polls show he loses general election.
  • An anti-war movement with youth demonstrations is dividing the party.
  • The likely Republican nominee Donald Trump is considered by Democrats many times worse than Richard Nixon.

Can Joe Biden get to the August 19 convention? Could there be a March 31 (1968) speech: “I shall not seek, and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your President?” Although the Democratic Party’s leadership as of December is holding strongly for Biden, there is a daily onslaught of negative polling and bad political news.

This blog will begin a regular commentary and polling watch of the nominations starting with the Democrats – On to Chicago.

The Presidential Polls
The figure below shows the current running polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website and other credible polls.

2024 Presidential Election - December 2023

On Saturday, December 9, the Washington Post published its latest poll that had Biden’s approval at 37 percent; he’s losing to Trump by 4 percentage points (47% to 43%) and all third-party and independent candidates take 17 percent.

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