A PPIC poll of mid-November has Democrat Adam Schiff up 5 percentage points over Katie Porter in the March 5 primary. Republican Steve Garvey is third with 10 percent and Oakland Democrat Barbara Lee in fourth with 8 percent.
The pattern of Schiff and Porter leading has held since public polling started a year ago. Garvey now appears to be in a solid third place with Lee slipping to fourth.
In the new year there will be about 8 weeks to election day. The massive advertising will likely begin slowly and then build into February. Will it go negative? Expect movement in the numbers. About 30 percent of voters are undecided or weakly backing various long shots. They are likely to shift around but as of the end of the year, Schiff has a lead.