From the Valley to Mexico City

Then-Vice President Joe Biden (L) speaks with then-Interior
Secretary Ken Salazar before a ceremony in a First State
National Monument, New Castle, Del., Mar. 26,
2013 | Patrick Semansky/AP 

The San Luis Valley was part of the North American Spanish Empire, and one of its sons is about to go to its capital, Mexico City, as the U.S. Ambassador.

An incredible journey, Ken Salazar has gone from a cabinet officer for Gov. Roy Romer in the 1990s, to the state’s attorney general and the U.S. Senate in the early 2000s. Then President Barack Obama offered him Interior Secretary, with bouts of private practice between elected and appointed positions. One job was especially brief as Hillary Clinton put him in charge of her transition to the White House. But now President Joe Biden has announced his intent on nominating Salazar the new ambassador to Mexico.

He will arrive about the time the new embassy opens in the Polanco, moving from its old sprawling complex on the Paseo, a nice welcome for what is likely to be a high-profile job representing the Biden administration with the edgy President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and a host of difficult issues. Vice President Harris has already had a visit to discuss immigration, borders and trade. It will be a full agenda for Salazar, but he fortunately has the experience with land and water at Interior, criminal justice as the Colorado Attorney General, and immigration and trade in the Senate.

Congratulations Ken.

See blog: Statewide Footprint

Worldwide COVID-19 Deaths Double What’s Reported

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (HME) reported on May 6 that it believes the real number of deaths worldwide from COVID-19, the SARS CoV-2 virus, is 6.9 million deaths, double the officially reported 3.5 million. Latin America and South Asia were very hard hit by deaths, but underreporting was a worldwide problem. The scientists of the University of Washington School of Medicine (HME) said they only counted deaths caused directly by the virus and not by the pandemic’s disruption to the health care systems, for example, uncounted where deaths from non-COVID-19 conditions avoiding health care facilities. The primary source of underreporting is countries that only report deaths in hospitals or in patients with confirmed infections. Also, underreporting is widespread in areas with weak reporting agencies and low access to health care, for example, urban slums and isolated rural communities.

The table above shows the May 3 official numbers of COVID-19 fatalities and the new May 6 HME estimates in the six countries with the most deaths.

Democrats Disappointed Boebert’s Seat Gets More Republican

A Bloomberg Government political article by Tripp Baltz on Colorado’s first redistricting map captures the political fight that’s developing as Democrats are unhappy in general with a map that leaves the party with only a registration lead in 4 out of 8 districts, even though they have dominated the state for most of the decade. They are especially disappointed that Lauren Boebert’s Western Slope district, one of their top targets, has received increased Republican registration in the first map published by Colorado’s new registration commission. They are also unhappy with the redrawn 7th district of Congressman Ed Perlmutter, which shifts south to an area he hasn’t represented and tilts Republican by 4 percentage points.

I was quoted saying:

One incumbent who might disagree is eight-term Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D), whose home base under the initial proposal would be part of a district that includes what University of Denver professor Floyd Ciruli called the “Republican heartland” of the south Denver metro area.

“Instead of 5–3, it’s 4–4, and an incumbent is in danger,” Ciruli said.

First Congressional Map Has Republicans Pleased

On Wednesday, Colorado’s new Congressional Commission staff released a first map of the newly drawn eight congressional districts. It will next be taken around the state by the 12-member Congressional Commission to gather public input. 

In an interview with KOA’s morning host, April Zesbaugh, she asked about the placement of the newest district in the north Denver metro area. The district location was suggested by the Hispanic community. Its placement is logical given the rapid growth in the area. Democrats, at least preliminarily, appear to support it. This part of the map may not change much and the population is 30 percent Hispanic.

The biggest surprise in the map was the change in the 7th Congressional District, which had been centered in Jefferson and Adams counties and is pushed south to Republican-leaning Douglas County. Incumbent Ed Perlmutter would be in an area he hasn’t represented, and according to staff, leans Republican by 4 points.

Another disappointment for Democrats is the newly designed 3rd district represented by Lauren Boebert. Democrats were hoping by picking up Vail (Eagle County) and Breckenridge (Summit County) partisan registration, which currently leans Republican, would tighten, but it still tilts Republican by 12 points.

So, it appears Colorado, which is now 4 seats to 3 seats Democratic could become 4 and 4. This is producing a lot of buzz in Washington where Democrats only control the House of Representatives by four seats. Could Colorado contribute to the national shift to Republicans?

This, of course, is only the first map in a long process that will have much public input, final census data, and considerable deliberation and Commission voting in the fall. But the process has started and Republicans did well.

Read blog: Will Colorado’s New Congressperson Be a Democrat or Republican?

Inflation and Fed Begin to Shift Economy

Inflation is beginning to increase for a broad range of goods and indicators. The Federal Reserve has just announced expected interest rate increases moved up from late 2023 to early 2023 and the economy, especially the investment markets, is beginning to take notice.

• Core inflation was projected at 2 percent in 2021 and it’s now projected near 5 percent. The Federal Reserve and most economists expect the surge to be transitory, but the increase was substantial and the tight labor market suggests employee inflation, which is less transitory than commodity inflation.
• The Federal Reserve announced that rates will likely begin to increase early in 2023, not later. Also, the Fed is “tapering” its quantitative easing that reduces bond (asset) purchases.
• Clearly, the Fed has conflicting priorities. Although unemployment is still high (6%), it is dropping and tax revenue up as economic growth gains momentum from reopening.
• But, the market is recognizing inflation, even if temporary, and Federal Reserve rate increases will cause economic shifts and frame a new allocation of investments.

Expect volatility as the transition goes on; the market just staged a 590 point comeback after last week’s worst since October.

Nasdaq

Read:
Bull Market Continues
Market Likes Start of Biden Program

Polling in 2020: Worst in 40 Years?

Headlines concerning polling after the 2020 elections were uniformly negative. Not surprising because much of the mainstream media depended on their and other national pollsters for headlines and stories, especially conclusions as to who was winning and why. The Wall Street Journal was especially unhappy with its final poll. It said Joe Biden would win by 11 points. Once all the votes were counted, he won by 4.5 percent. Fox News was so displeased with their pollster’s call of Arizona for Biden during the Election Night broadcast that they changed polling management and the team.

Dozens of reports on the results of what happened and why are now available. What is the consensus on mistakes in 2020 and are the new polls accurate within statistical limits? Will there be another polling miss in 2022 or 2024? Some adjustments have been made, but adjustments aside, pollsters – both private and media – are back in the field describing the New York mayor’s race, the 2022 midterm elections and a myriad of issues.

The Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at the University of Denver (OLLI at DU) is hosting pollster and DU professor, Floyd Ciruli, for a conversation on what happened to polling in 2020 and its future. The OLLI at DU presentation will be held on June 29, 2021 from 10:00 am to 11:30 am MT. REGISTER HERE

For information and registration for OLLI at DU Summer Seminars 2021, click here

Want to become a member of OLLI at DU? Click here

Read blog: AAPOR dissects the 2020 polls

Supreme Court Tells Title Board to Step Up

After years of regularly approving deceptive and complex ballot titles, the Colorado Supreme Court finally told the Title Board to do its job and stop approving ballot titles with multiple subjects, often in deliberately deceptive language.

Kudos to the agricultural community for leading the fight on this initiative and to Mark Grueskin for his legal work. He’s Colorado’s best attorney on ballot titling and just performed a public service in this case. Grueskin also argued, although not adopted by the court, that the language was deceptive for the purposes of misdirecting voters’ attention to human sex with animals and pets instead of primary impact of commercial animal husbandry and recreational practices, such as rodeos. But at least the case was made and the deception exposed.

The court also struck a blow against the rural-urban divide that some Colorado political advocates like to exploit in ballot campaigns.

Colorado Politics: Justices block animal cruelty measure from ballot