China, the U.S. and Global Leadership in the Pandemic

The U.S. and China relationship is in one of its most confrontational stances since President Nixon visited the People’s Republic in 1972. China and its handling of the coronavirus may be a key issue in the November presidential campaign. A propaganda war is being waged by both sides and both parties in the U.S. It is accompanied by a growing standoff in the South China Sea, a fierce economic competition with retaliatory tariffs, and accusations of spying and secrets thefts.

Professors Suisheng (Sam) Zhao and Floyd Ciruli will host a discussion on the impact COVID-19 is having on China and U.S. relations, how it appears to be effecting each country’s domestic policies, and the lack of global leadership on the pandemic.

Join Us

Thursday, May 14, 2020

3:00 pm to 4:30 pm MST

Zoom Meeting Details

Meeting ID: 926-3541-6507

Click on the link below to join the conversation on Thursday,

May 14 at 3:00 pm from PC, Mac, Linus, iOS or Android:

CLICK HERE TO ENTER ZOOM MEETING

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and Center for China-U.S. Cooperation

China and U.S.: Moving from Cooperation, to Competition, to Confrontation

The U.S. and China relationship is in one of its most confrontational stances since President Nixon visited the People’s Republic in 1972. China and its handling of the coronavirus may be a key issue in the November presidential campaign. A propaganda war is being waged by both sides and both parties in the U.S. It is accompanied by a growing standoff in the South China Sea, a fierce economic competition with retaliatory tariffs, and accusations of spying and secrets thefts.

The relationship, improved after Nixon’s visit, has had warm and cold periods. But in this century, it has become much more fraught with conflict. The rise of China’s economic and military power and the presidency of Xi Jinping have led to a shift from competition to confrontation, especially after the election of Donald Trump.

Americans have increasingly negative views of China. A recent Pew Research poll shows the dramatic recent surge of unfavorable ratings to a historic high since data has been collected in 2005. It reflects a host of issues and the views of Democratic and Republican adherents.

In follow-up questions, Pew identifies, along with the pandemic, job loss and the trade deficit as key concerns, along with environment factors and human rights abuses. Although Republicans have more negative views of China (72% negative), Democrats also have an unfavorable view (62%).

The Twin Towers of Pain: Part Three

The U.S. death total from COVID-19 continues to grow rapidly and now exceeds 55,000, up from 33,000 ten days ago, a 66 percent increase. The world total is now above 210,000, but the U.S. keeps its position of being a quarter of the deaths. It is also substantially ahead of each of the next most effected states: Italy (26,977), Spain (23,321), France (23,293) and the UK (21,092).

With the latest unemployment claims of 4.4 million, the total now stands at 26.5 million. Economists believe that would translate today into about 16 percent unemployment rate. It exceeds the 22.4 million jobs created since the end of the last recession. Not surprising, we are beyond the unemployment impact of the 2008-09 Great Recession, which hit 10 percent with 9 million unemployed. It clearly exceeds the last downturn and brings to mind the 25 percent rate during the early 1930s. Many of these are temporary layoffs and may be re-employed quickly after the shutdown recedes, but the speed and depth was a shock to most economists and their historic models.

Americans Support Mail-Back Voting. Colorado Got Theirs in 2013.

Colorado, with four other states, has successfully voted by mail in presidential elections, but after the controversy in the Wisconsin presidential primary and postponements of several primaries (New York just cancelled) due to the pandemic, the issue has become urgent for people around the country. Polls show that super majorities of Americans support mail-back voting. President Trump has framed it as a partisan issue, damaging Republicans’ prospects in the upcoming elections and claiming that it leads to voter fraud. And, indeed, polls show Republicans are less supportive, although more than 50 percent support it in several polls. But the issue appears to be gaining adherents, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states.

Four states have mail-back voting now besides Colorado – Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington. Many others (33 states) have various forms of absentee voting without an excuse, including a number of battleground states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. If the virus is still a threat in the fall, expect even more clamoring for safer voting.

• 65% - YouGov: Do you support or oppose voting by mail. This means that instead of going to the polls in-person on Election Day, voters would fill out their ballots at home and then mail it in? – Democrats 80%, independents 64%, Republicans 54%. 
• 69% - NBC 2020: 58% support permanent change, another 9% support only this November
• 71% - Navigator: Do you support giving all eligible voters the option to vote by mail, also known as no-excuse absentee voting, in the election this November? – Democrats 88%, independents 64%, Republicans 52%.

Trump Has Terrible Week

After weeks of showmanship at the Coronavirus Task Force briefings, President Trump has finally exhausted the patience of even his strongest supporters. Near uniform advice has told him to stop, and at least for the moment, he has. Probably the final misstep, which panicked his re-election team, was the disinfectant and sunlight cures he recommended on Thursday, giving rise to thousands of cartoons, memes, and online and late night jokes.

What got Republican leaders’ attention were polls showing Trump losing battleground states, including many that have senate races. Since the last time this blog was posted, Trump lost one percent nationally and remains behind in several key states, such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. Arizona is still five points to Joe Biden, and Florida, which on April 17 was a toss-up, now has Biden up by 3. In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead has stretched to 7 points, making it at this point nearly out of play.

Also, the latest polls show a demographic group that had been in Trump’s camp – seniors – are now a problem. He won them by 9 points in 2016 (Pew Research) and now is behind Biden by a similar amount in many national polls. Even in Florida, a state Trump desperately needs and has worked hard to secure, he’s running behind among seniors in a new poll by 10 points (Quinnipiac 2020).

Of course, it’s very early and Trump won the late deciders in 2016, but the alarm bells are going off for the RNC.

Read The Buzz: Democrats Unifying as Close Race Begins

Politics and Foreign Policy in the Pandemic

The University of Denver is continuing its programs to provide community conversations and information.

Ambassador Christopher Hill and I will reprise our regular politics and foreign policy discussion. Our topic is the pandemic’s impact on our politics and foreign policy. I will discuss blogs I’ve done on the topic:

• Democratic Primary: Is it over?
• Flood of Colorado ballot initiatives now on hold: Coronavirus changes politics
• From brokered to virtual convention, coronavirus changes politics
• Authoritarian use virus to extend power

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

3:00 pm to 4:30 pm MST

Zoom Meeting Details

Meeting ID: 921-0870-9263

Click on the link below to join the conversation from PC, Mac, Linus, iOS or Android:

ZOOM MEETING 921-0870-9263

Jerd Smith: COVID-19 Will Affect Water Budgets

Water policy and politics in Colorado is now mostly covered by websites and online newsletters, some government-associated, like the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) newsletter, and others nonprofit-sponsored, such as the Water Education Colorado (WEC). Jerd Smith, a longtime Colorado journalist, reports April 22 in the WEC that COVID-19 created additional uncertainty in the expected revenues for the state water plan from newly approved sports betting. The expected funding was extremely modest – projected to only be $9 million in 2020. But even that amount was doubted before the economic downturn due to the lack of a track record from sports gaming in Colorado. In addition, oil and gas revenues, which the CWCB and water projects also benefit, are likely to be reduced due to the impact of the virus.

My observation was:

“It’s definitely a major blow,” said Floyd Ciruli, a political analyst who followed Proposition DD, and who tracks water issues for the Colorado Water Congress.