Warning: Donald Trump is 43 Percent in Colorado

The 2020 warning light is flashing for Colorado Republicans. Donald Trump, who will be running non-stop the next two years for re-election, has a ceiling in Colorado of 43 percent. He received 43 percent against Hillary Clinton, a candidate he regularly disparages as a totally inadequate campaigner. Walker Stapleton ended up with 43 percent in his statewide gubernatorial race. He lost by a remarkable 10 points, which may have ballooned at the end due to President Trump’s “embrace” in a Monday before Election Day tweet.

Trump embrace: “…His opponent, Jared Polis, is weak on crime and weak on borders – could never do the job. Get out and VOTE – Walker has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

Trump was a disaster for Colorado Republicans, not only giving Democrats control of all the state’s constitutional offices, but also both houses of the legislature, the first time it’s been accomplished in Colorado since Franklin D. Roosevelt crushed Alf Landon in the 1936 landslide. The 2018 losses even exceeded the Watergate backlash that brought Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth and Democrats in the Colorado House into power. But, as opposed to this year, the Republican Secretary of State and Republican controlled State Senate survived.

The Trump down draft also swept out numerous local county Republican elected officials (commissioners, sheriffs, clerks, assessors) in counties, such as Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer.

The most vulnerable Republication now is Senator Cory Gardner, who won by 2 points in 2014, a good Republican year. Expect a fierce contest setting records beyond the massive amounts spent this year. The Republican challenge is how to hold the senate seat and conduct local elections with Donald Trump anxious to embrace.

SCFD Has a Birthday Party – 30 Years Old

The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) is throwing a party Wednesday night at 6:00 pm at McNichols Civic Center Building. It was 30 years ago this month that voters in the Denver metro counties voted by 75 percent to create the district and start funding the region’s small and large arts organizations.

John Wenzel and the Denver Post highlight the accomplishment in his Sunday article, “Three Decades of Collaboration.” Rob Johnson, SCFD board chair, pointed out access and collaboration have been hallmarks for the district:

“‘What has made SCFD special and unique nationally is the collaboration and access.’ Johnson  noted a project between the Butterfly Pavilion and the Colorado Ballet called ‘Metamorphosis Moves’ in which students from first to sixth grade ‘dance and move to learn about the life cycle of a butterfly.’ ‘With our focus on access, many across our region can afford to visit attractions and experiences they might not otherwise be able to afford.’”

The Buzz
Wenzel referenced the website, The Buzz, for a couple recent posts celebrating the SCFD’s history and accomplishments.

“The latest study released in early November showed a substantial increase in economic impact in just the last two years, now reaching $1.9 billion, up 8 percent with 11,820 cultural jobs,” wrote pollster and founding SCFD consultant Floyd Ciruli on his website, citing the CBCA’s recently released study, which has been conducted every two years since 1992. “The SCFD-supported organizations attract 15 million people and 4.3 million school children, who mostly attend events free due to the cultural subsidy.”

Gov. Roy Romer signed the legislation creating the district on July 1, 1987, Ciruli said. The supporters who were gathered around his desk could hardly have imagined that SCFD would this year be on track to distribute $60 million in taxpayer funds exclusively for arts, culture and science.

Many of the original founders will join the event, along with hundreds of the Denver volunteers, staffs and civic leaders who have kept the district a success for 30 years.

SCFD Community Celebration and Awards

Wednesday, November 28

6:00 pm – 9:00 pm

McNichols Civic Center Building

Popsicle the SCFD mascot | Stephanie Wolf/CPR News

Kellyanne Predicts “Blue Wave” was Exaggeration from Discredited Pollsters

Kellyanne Conway is President Trump’s champion of snark, especially for elections where Trump is in trouble.

In Politico on October 10, to explain away polls that showed Democrats winning the midterm House election by 7 points and predicting they would pick up at least 23 seats to win a majority, she went back to her and Trump’s tired trope of the 2016 election polls: “Let’s not forget the same geniuses that predicted a huge romp by ‘that woman’ who lost in 2016 are the same people predicting a huge win by the Democrats this time.”

Kellyanne Conway | Alex Wong/Getty

Kellyanne, a pollster herself, probably knew better, but in any event, was dead wrong. Democrats won at last count 39 seats and are debating who should be their Speaker. They beat the Republicans by 8.6 million votes, capturing 53.1 million, or a win of 8 points, the same as the generic ballot test, which varied between 7 and 8 points the last month. NBC News reports it was the largest House margin for Democrats since the Republican Watergate debacle in 1974.

National pollsters and pundits also predicted the Republicans would hold the Senate.

Polls in Colorado were on the mark and polls caught the right side of senate races in Nevada, Montana, Tennessee and Texas. But, they missed Republican senate wins in Missouri, Indiana and late counting Florida. Polls underreported Democratic House strength in California. But mostly, misses were within the margin of error and, all in all, a very good night for the profession and not very good for Kellyanne.

Colorado Republicans Lose Local Leaders

The November 6, 2018 midterm election wasn’t just devastating for Colorado Republicans in statewide and legislative races, the Trump rejection and straight ticket Democratic voting went deep into county races.

Not only were the Republican sheriffs of Adams and Arapahoe counties defeated, but so were a host of county clerks, assessors and commissioners in the Front Range counties. The losses tended to be in counties with a history of Republican local control, but that had Democratic wins in recent statewide elections, such as for president, senators and the governor. The 2018 sweep was just too powerful and deep, and many local Republican county officeholders succumbed.

Each of the counties of Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer gave Jared Polis and the rest of the Democratic ticket victories at least equal to candidates’ statewide averages, had a high turnout and pushed Republican incumbents out, sometimes in close votes.

DU Post-Election Event Draws Crowd to Discussion of Midterm Election and What it Means

The Korbel School hosted a post-midterm presentation with Ambassador Christopher Hill and Professor Floyd Ciruli to update their analyses after the 2016 election. The presentation described the mixed national results, the end of one-party government in Washington and the extraordinary sweep of Colorado offices by the Democrats.

The event, which attracted 150 students, alumni and metro residents, was co-sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Office of Global Engagement. The impact on the administration’s ability to conduct foreign policy due to a Democratic House of Representatives was a focus of discussion. Hill described the Congressional hearing process for a foreign services officer. I suggested that House Democrats now have a mandate to restrain the President and will have to implement it in a fashion that is seen as reasonable by the public.

With the conclusion of the midterms, we both expected the presidential election will now accelerate and controversies surrounding American foreign policy will be one of the issues candidates will have viewpoints on and electorates will expect to hear.

Read The Buzz: Korbel School Post-Election Event Attracts More than 250 Alumni, Professors and Students

NBC News: Colorado No Longer a Swing State – It’s Democratic

Chuck Todd | Photo: NBC News

Chuck Todd of NBC’s “Meet the Press” and network researchers announced the obvious, but with clarifying summary charts. Ohio appears a much more Republican state having elected a Republican governor to replaced John Kasich and holding a couple of Republican congressional seats.

Colorado, on the other hand, gave Hillary Clinton a 5-point win in 2016, and this year, defeated a Republican incumbent congressperson by 11 points and elected a Democratic governor by 10 points.

NBC also pointed out that Colorado has a surfeit of metrics that suggest Democrats will be in power for at least as long as President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. For example, 39 percent of Coloradans have a four-year college degree, reflecting it being the second highest educated state in the country. College educated voters prefer Democrats by 20 percentage points.

Missing may be the most important factor in Colorado’s recent high turnout election – Millennials. Ballot returns reported they were 32 percent of the electorate and polls showed they voted for Democrats by 20 points (pre-election and national exit polls). Colorado also has a surfeit of independents. They were 34 percent of the electorate and polls showed they favored Democrats nationally by 12 points and in Colorado by more than 20 points.

Arizona appears now to be a swing state for the 2020 election. The point was one we’ve made in numerous articles and op eds that there wasn’t so much of a wave, but a realignment of our deep divisions.

Five Hundred Cultural Supporters Celebrate the Economic Impact of SCFD funding

SCFD Economic Impact Nears Two billion

Every two years since 1992, the Colorado Business Committee for the Arts (CBCA), in partnership with the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD), conducts a study on the economic impact of the arts and cultural organizations funded by the SCFD in the seven-county metro area.

The latest study released in early November showed a substantial increase in economic impact in just the last two years, now reaching $1.9 billion, up 8 percent with 11,820 cultural jobs. The SCFD supported organizations attract 15 million people and 4.3 million school children, who mostly attend events free due to the cultural subsidy. (The study uses 2017 and 2015 data for its comparisons.)

The Denver metro area is now one of the outstanding cultural regions in the country, drawing thousands of new residents, especially Millennials, to the community’s diverse cultural offerings. The SCFD has helped fund a rich and deep cultural experience in the region with lively, quality exhibits and performances.

Ciruli Associates produced the first economic impact study in 1992 in partnership with the CBCA and accounting firm, Deloitte & Touche. The growth in metro residents participating in cultural programs and the accompanying economic benefits have been extraordinary. Attendance of adults has doubled in the 25 years and children increased four times. Economic impact, with its employment component, is the major boost for the region’s hospitality and tourism industry.

While the population of the Denver metro area increased by 53 percent in the 25 years, the main features in the cultural district’s impact more than doubled. The increased impact on the economy and children greatly exceeds the region’s investment from the SCFD sales tax.

Colorado Public Radio produced a feature on the 30-year anniversary of the SCFD with host Ryan Warner and reporter Stephanie Wolf. Listen here

Popsicle the SCFD mascot | Stephanie Wolf/CPR News