Ciruli Calls the Race for 9KUSA

Darryl Glenn

With about 160,000 votes in, Floyd Ciruli, 9KUSA political analyst, calls the race for Darryl Glenn, El Paso County Commissioner, to be the Republican Party nominee for U.S. Senate.

See:
AP: Darryl Glenn wins GOP Senate primary race
The Buzz: Republican Senate field now five

Beth McCann Wins Big

Beth McCann

Photo: Denver Post

Beth McCann wins the Denver District Attorney primary 12 years after losing the job to incumbent Mitch Morrissey. McCann was outspent and out-endorsed, but beat presumed frontrunner Michael Carrigan substantially. Denver voters seem to prefer the candidates the establishment doesn’t endorse. Chris Nevitt lost for auditor and Michael Carrigan for DA.

McCann was the candidate with the widest experience in a year when Democrats are supporting a woman with experience for president. She will be running with Hillary Clinton and will likely win big.

See:
Colorado Independent: Dems vying for Denver DA each calling for reforms post-Morrissey era

Metro Schools Ask for $1.6 Billion in Metro Property Tax – 9KUSA Nelson Garcia

The major Denver metro area school districts believe the 2016 general election is the best choice to pass a record-breaking bond initiative for new facilities.

Five observations about the property tax increase in conversation with Nelson Garcia of 9KUSA:

1. Ciruli says these ballot questions will not be easy. In 2013, Amendment 66 wanted to generate a $1 billion in funding for schools. That measure failed. "The public is very, very frugal and reluctant to put a lot more money into education," Ciruli said.
2. However, Ciruli points out Denver voters are not afraid to pass big bond issues. In 2012, voters approved $466 million. JeffCo is a different story. The last major bond issue to pass was in 2004 at a total of $323 million. "The number of residents and voters who actually have children in the school district is a very small percentage, maybe even 20 percent or less," Ciruli said.
3. In 2015, voters successfully launched a recall effort to remove three conservative-leaning board members from the JeffCo School Board. Ciruli says that might leave bond supporters well equipped for a November push again. "It looks to me they probably have an on-the-ground network of supporters and volunteers that can help," Ciruli said. "Boy, that is extremely important to have in one of these elections."
4. "In a Presidential election, you get a younger voter," Floyd Ciruli, 9News Political Analyst, said. Ciruli is not surprised these big ballot questions are likely to be put in front of the voters because he says, generally, younger voters means these issues will be approved.
5. Ciruli cautions however there is one big factor that could skew all the results -- the Donald Trump factor. "He sort of rearranged the table," Ciruli said. "So, honestly, I don't think I could predict." The fiery presidential election between presumptive nominees, Trump and Hillary Clinton, may change the rate of voter turnout, Ciruli says. "We're not even certain if it's going to be a record high turnout or if some groups may say there's nobody I can vote for and just stay home," Ciruli said.

Final British Polls Wrong on Result

One final poll showed the “leave” camp winning close, but it was an exception after a weekend of polls and betting markets that appeared to favor the “stay” camp. But voters said “leave” clearly by four percentage points (52% to 48%).

British polling has suffered another embarrassment after its failure to predict the Conservative Party majority vote in 2015.

The major impacts for the British people and world at large include:

1. Cameron out. Immediate impact on the British and world economy from the withdrawal. Dow drops 600 points.
• The British government falls. Cameron is out and a new prime minister in October.
2. EU crisis. Europe loses its most powerful nation. Nationalist, anti-immigrant parties gather strength.
3. Not “Great Britain.” Scotland, other parts of Britain may seek seceding votes.
4. Good for the bear. The Atlantic and NATO alliances weakened. Russia wins from European disunion.
5. Elites in trouble. British voters highlighted the divide in western developed societies. Immigration, national identity and sovereignty are top issues with British electorate (52% at least). The conflict brought down the government and similar divisions are rolling Western center-right and left politics throughout the Continent and U.S.
6. Good for Donald, not for Hillary. Good news for Donald Trump and his anti-immigrant, nationalist campaign. He endorsed the “leave” side. Hillary Clinton represents the elite D.C./NY position. She is “stay” all the way.

See blogs:
Brexit: Leave the EU Closed the Gap
Will Britain Leave the EU?

Should Clinton Go Left or Right for a VP?

A lobby effort to make Elizabeth Warren the vice presidential nominee with Hillary Clinton has gained considerable momentum since the June 7 California primary. Numerous arguments are made to advance her interests, but the case chiefly resides on Clinton’s need to calm the left at the convention and attract Bernie Sanders’s constituency, especially his Millennial supporters in November. These were a few million young voters who preferred Sanders 4-and-5-to-one over Clinton and made him a winner, especially in numerous low turnout caucus states like Colorado.

But does Clinton need to placate the left, especially Millennial voters? Is she hurt running with the country’s farthest left, high-profile politician outside of Sanders; i.e., Elizabeth Warren?

An examination of polls since the California primary, which Clinton is winning over Trump, makes clear her biggest challenge is White men, the one group he dominates, not 26 year olds. In a recent swing state Colorado poll by Ciruli Associates in the Denver metro area (56% of the state’s likely voters), Clinton needs help with Anglo men of Baby Boomer age much more than women, minorities or Millennials.

Would Clinton be better served contrasting her personal shift to the left on a number of issues with a more centrist running mate? And would appealing to Anglo men of middle and Baby Boom age be a better target audience for the vice president selection?

Disarray in Trump’s Camp

Donald Trump loves to quote headlines and polls. Both have gone negative the last week:

• Trump Fires Campaign Manager
• Trump Vows He Will Go it Alone if Necessary
• Trump Campaign Makes Urgent Plea for Funds

Donald Trump has no campaign to speak of. This week highlighted the lack of organization, money, continued dissent in the party, and little awareness of the difference between talking to his base and winning a general election with 130,000,000 million voters.

The polls continue to reinforce his slippage. Although the presidential race is one of states and electoral votes, most recently Trump has been campaigning in California, which he can’t win, and Texas, which he can’t lose (we think). Clinton is totally focused in the projected swing states.

Trump: Can He Run a Campaign With Rallies and Interviews?

Donald Trump is running his own campaign. It is mostly made up of rallies, interviews (many from his office in Trump Towers) and tweets. He self-funded the primaries, but he stopped, and his campaign is now scrambling for funding.  At least a billion dollars will be spent by Hillary Clinton and her supporters. She already has started in Colorado with TV ads. Her campaign has built a ground game since late last year and a Super Pac has invested nearly $10 million in anti-Trump ads running through November.

Trump’s strategy worked in the primaries where a smaller, more attentive, and in his case, passionate electorate was involved. Approximately 50 million people took part in the primaries and caucuses. Clinton received 16 million and Trump 13 million. But, the 2016 general election will have more than 130,000,000 voters, nearly three times the primary turnout. Many are occasional and less attentive voters. Communicating and motivating them has historically required frequent and repeated advertising, mostly on television, but increasingly on the internet, and a strong targeted ground game to identify and attract less motivated potential supporters. It is not a national campaign. The entire effort is aimed at a dozen states of which Colorado is one.

Trump is already down about 6 points and the conventions are a month away. His approach is either brilliant or a disaster, unfortunately for the Republican Party, they share the risk and may reap the disaster.

See CPR: Deluge of political ads coming to a TV screen near you; $39M spent so far