Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Final British Polls Wrong on Result

One final poll showed the “leave” camp winning close, but it was an exception after a weekend of polls and betting markets that appeared to favor the “stay” camp. But voters said “leave” clearly by four percentage points (52% to 48%).

British polling has suffered another embarrassment after its failure to predict the Conservative Party majority vote in 2015.

The major impacts for the British people and world at large include:
  1. Cameron out. Immediate impact on the British and world economy from the withdrawal. Dow drops 600 points.
    • The British government falls. Cameron is out and a new prime minister in October.
  2. EU crisis. Europe loses its most powerful nation. Nationalist, anti-immigrant parties gather strength.
  3. Not “Great Britain.” Scotland, other parts of Britain may seek seceding votes.
  4. Good for the bear. The Atlantic and NATO alliances weakened. Russia wins from European disunion.
  5. Elites in trouble. British voters highlighted the divide in western developed societies. Immigration, national identity and sovereignty are top issues with British electorate (52% at least). The conflict brought down the government and similar divisions are rolling Western center-right and left politics throughout the Continent and U.S.
  6. Good for Donald, not for Hillary. Good news for Donald Trump and his anti-immigrant, nationalist campaign. He endorsed the “leave” side. Hillary Clinton represents the elite D.C./NY position. She is “stay” all the way.
See blogs:
Brexit: Leave the EU Closed the Gap
Will Britain Leave the EU?

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