Denver is a Top Tier Political City

Denver has made it to the top of the list of cities that can logistically hold major conventions and bring additional benefits to the table. Our civic and political leadership are hospitable, and Colorado has the political demographics and culture that points to the future of American politics with its diversity and independent voters.

Denver’s handicap stems from its recent success with the 2008 Democratic Convention. There will be a tendency to compare what the Republicans do in 2016 with the extraordinary moment when a charismatic figure took control of a party hungry for victory. Can the Republicans fill Invesco Field will be a framing perspective.

 

Cleveland and Dallas are the frontrunners on the list because they have far more political clout in the halls of the RNC and its site selection committee, but they also provide powerful messaging to the respective regions and the country at large.

Ohio is a swing state Obama barely carried, central in a region the Republicans believe is very winnable in 2016. Obama’s failure to sufficiently revive the economy is exactly the message Ohio and rustbelt Republicans intend to highlight against the Democratic nominee.

Dallas and Texas represent the heartland of the Republicans’ message of restrained government, free market economics and a land of opportunity. Texas, as the fastest growing state, radiates success and self-confidence. The Texas delegation has both the Republican establishment and the Tea Party in Cornyn, Cruz and Perry.

The downside is Dallas is the home of G.W. Bush, Democrats’ favorite target, and all the upbeat tempo of success can become an unattractive swagger. Texas politicians spend an inordinate amount of time trying to steal jobs from other states.

Kansas City’s advantage is that it has less downside. It could hold a convention that is just about 50,000 people getting together for four days to pick a nominee with no tertiary drama.

Read Denver Post article: Denver makes cut to host 2016 RNC, joining three other cities

India’s Revolution

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The sweeping election victory of Narendra Modi and his BJP party and the crushing defeat of the India’s National Congress Party heralds a political revolution in India and has a message for the U.S.


Modi, a charismatic figure, focused on the aspirations of hundreds of millions of Indians, especially young voters, and offered to create a new economic opportunity in what has appeared to be a nearly ungovernable country, certainly beyond the ability of the Congress Party. The economy, corruption, infrastructure and mostly getting the basics right was the party’s message.

This November, U.S. voters will offer a judgment on their government, and Democrats are nervous that a tsunami of dissatisfaction could sweep them from power. The national Democratic Party will likely lose seats in Congress, not gain the 17 needed to restore Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership (will she join Mr. Waxman and Mr. Miller in retirement?) and it could well lose control of the U.S. Senate.

Five reasons stand out as causing the Democratic Party’s woes:

Weak Economy – Not only is the economy still weak, but the distribution of new wealth is grossly uneven. Most of the population has seen some recovery from the great recession, but they are behind where they were, with no sense of optimism that things will fundamentally improve. Barely a quarter of the population either trusts the government or believes the country is going in the right direction.

Incompetence – President Obama’s poor approval rating reflects a growing sense that he and the administration are in over their heads. Implementation of the ACA was a national embarrassment and had a Katrina-like effect on his reputation. The Ukrainian and VA crises reinforce the image of a disengaged administration drifting from crisis to crisis.

Gridlock – Last October’s government shutdown just highlighted an endless cycle of fiscal and government crises that has engulfed Washington since 2009. Partisan polarization, combined with checks and balances, has destroyed confidence in Washington D.C. Incumbency today is a burden, not a benefit for a candidate.

Tired Leadership – President Obama appears to be a very old president in a young body. Most of his speeches are now related to laments about the lack of power and metaphors for inaction.

Lack of Vision – Democrats and Republicans mostly argue about more or less of what we already have; that is, what we already have too much of, an expensive, ineffective government. Democrats, in particular, appear committed to more spending, regulation and government.

The only reason the next U.S. elections are unlikely to see the massive change that just occurred in India is the rigidity of our election system and the fact that both parties share in the blame and the Republicans have offered, as yet, ill-defined alternatives.

See New York Times: The trends that helped sweep B.J.P. to landslidevictory

National Legalization of Recreational Marijuana may be in Trouble

A new poll shows Americans are comfortable with medical marijuana, but less than a majority support recreational use. This is different from a spate of polls in 2013 and earlier this year, which showed a majority of Americans for legalization. (Pew 52%, March 2013; Pew 54%, February 2014; CBS 51%, February 2014, but only 48% in May). The poll, sponsored by NPR, could be an outlier or it may have caught a counter-trend. If so, Colorado may be the reason.

Implementation has not been smooth. Colorado’s intense coverage of the problems has spurred a national dialogue that is more focused on the risks and problems than benefits of ending the expensive and often haphazard enforcement. Concerns about youth usage, undetermined potency, driving under the influence, criminal distribution, and the uncertain effects on learning, lungs and mental health have put the brakes on the rush to legalize.

The country’s two leading governors, Chris Christie in New Jersey and Jerry Brown in California, have recently come out against legalization in their states.

 

Christie: “It’s not going to come while I’m here.” “See if you want to live in a major city in Colorado where there’s head shops popping up on every corner and people flying into your airport just to come and get high. To me, it’s just not the quality of life we want to have here in the state of New Jersey and there’s no tax revenue that’s worth that.”

Brown: “How many people can get stoned and still have a great state or a great nation? The world’s pretty dangerous, very competitive. I think we need to stay alert, if not 24 hours a day, more than some of the potheads might be able to put together.”

 

 

See:
Washington Post: Gov. Jerry Brown on legalized marijuana: “How  many people can get stoned and still have a great state?”
Los Angeles Times: Does new marijuana study back Gov. Brown’s warning about pot smokers?
CNN Political Ticker: Christie on pot: Colorado law “not the quality of life we want”
NPR: Poll: Yes to medical marijuana, not so much for recreational pot
CBS News Poll: Should pot be decriminalized?

One Month Out Tancredo is Still the Man to Beat

Nationally, the Republican establishment has continued the threat the Tea Party would nominate candidates incapable of winning Senate seats. But if money equals votes, Tom Tancredo, the least electable Colorado candidate, is the frontrunner in the Republican gubernatorial primary June 24. The latest fundraising numbers show him with the most cash on hand at $98,000. Also, the most recent poll showed Tancredo had the highest name identification among 400,000 or so Republican voters who are likely to turn out (about a quarter of the party).

Unfortunately for the Republicans, the incumbent Democrat raised more than their entire field.

 

Bob Beauprez and Scott Gessler appear to be in a close contest for the second position, but will divide the anti-Tancredo vote between themselves and Mike Kopp, who is in an underfinanced fourth place.

Will Beauprez’s top Republican endorsements – Mitt Romney and Rick Perry – lift him above the crowd the final month? Gessler appears worried. He has started an attack on Beauprez’s electability.

Tancredo’s smiling.

See Denver Post: Secretary of State Scott Gessler bests other three GOP rivals in latest fundraising

Texas Rules America’s Desire for Opportunity

As the old super states – New York, Illinois and California, which has recently joined the ranks of highly taxed heavily regulated states – languish, Texas continues to attract population that is looking for opportunity. Seven of the fifteen fastest growing cities from 2012 to 2013 are in Texas. Arizona and Utah were next with two each. No surprise the only northeastern growth city was in suburban Washington D.C.

See Washington Post: Fastest-growing American cities are mostly in the West. And then there’s Gaithersburg, Md.

Colorado Democrats Slowly Drift into Conflict

The collapse of negotiations at the end of the Colorado legislative session over fracking and “local control” showed the inability of the Democratic Party’s powerful legislative wing to resolve the impending battle between its environmental constituents led by Congressman Jared Polis and its establishment and business wing led by Governor John Hickenlooper.

That failure may well bring the party to its knees in November, which already promises to be a difficult year due to the dramatic decline of the value of the national Democratic brand. Key election forecasting statistics, such as right direction, wrong track, presidential approval and trust in government, shows the incumbent party in trouble.
 

Having the party in a major fight could well end the eight-year run of success Colorado Democrats have achieved. As reported in the Colorado Observer, May 16, 2014, Valerie Richardson:

“It’s clear that it’s going to be a huge controversial ballot initiative, with Democrats on both sides. It’s very high profile, and again, it will be the first time we’ve had that kind of division in the party for a very long time,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli.

The losers if Democrats can’t gain control of the issue:

State Senate – One vote away from Republican control.

State House – Three seats would have to switch, but overreach in 2013 produced little to brag about in 2014. 

Governor Hickenlooper – Has a 5 to 10 point lead, but can ill-afford to look ineffectual and defensive. He risks losing environmental votes.

Senator Udall – Unlikely to be able to hide behind “it’s a state issue.” Voters don’t tend to care about the state vs. federal distinction. Is gas and oil exploration an economic boom or a bust; is fracking environmentally manageable or a disaster?

Statewide Offices – Democrats running for Attorney General, Treasurer and Secretary of State tend to win or lose on the national and state trends. A divided, quarrelsome party is a loser for them.

A party that cannot govern its own House is less likely to be asked to govern the state.

National Pollsters See Glimmer of Hope for Democrats

At a recent conference of national pollsters, several, including Frank Newport of Gallup and a leading Democratic pollster, Celinda Lake, pointed to factors they thought might mitigate the broadly perceived difficulties facing Democrats in November.

Gallup surveys point to President Obama’s mild recovery in approval since the first of the year. Newport compares George W. Bush at this time in the 2006 election and Obama, which shows Bush heading down from 42 percent to 37 percent on Election Day, whereas since December 2013 Obama has moved up to 44 percent from 40 percent. Not much in absolute terms, but a much more positive direction.

Ms. Lake cited the closeness of generic ballot test and the poor image of the Republican Party as a couple of factors she believes will reduce any negative impact of the year; hence, Democrats running strong, well-funded candidates can hold and even pick up seats. She is active in Kentucky where Mitch McConnell is threatened.