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| India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi |
Modi, a charismatic figure,
focused on the aspirations of hundreds of millions of Indians, especially young
voters, and offered to create a new economic opportunity in what has appeared to
be a nearly ungovernable country, certainly beyond the ability of the Congress
Party. The economy, corruption, infrastructure and mostly getting the basics
right was the party’s message.
This November, U.S. voters will
offer a judgment on their government, and Democrats are nervous that a tsunami
of dissatisfaction could sweep them from power. The national Democratic Party
will likely lose seats in Congress, not gain the 17 needed to restore Nancy
Pelosi to the Speakership (will she join Mr. Waxman and Mr. Miller in
retirement?) and it could well lose control of the U.S. Senate.
Five reasons stand out as
causing the Democratic Party’s woes:
Weak
Economy – Not only is the economy still weak, but the distribution
of new wealth is grossly uneven. Most of the population has seen some recovery
from the great recession, but they are behind where they were, with no sense of
optimism that things will fundamentally improve. Barely a quarter of the
population either trusts the government or believes the country is going in the
right direction.
Incompetence –
President Obama’s poor approval rating reflects a growing sense that he and the
administration are in over their heads. Implementation of the ACA was a
national embarrassment and had a Katrina-like effect on his reputation. The
Ukrainian and VA crises reinforce the image of a disengaged administration
drifting from crisis to crisis.
Gridlock –
Last October’s government shutdown just highlighted an endless cycle of fiscal
and government crises that has engulfed Washington since 2009. Partisan polarization,
combined with checks and balances, has destroyed confidence in Washington D.C.
Incumbency today is a burden, not a benefit for a candidate.
Tired
Leadership – President Obama appears to be a very old president in a
young body. Most of his speeches are now related to laments about the lack of
power and metaphors for inaction.
Lack
of Vision – Democrats and Republicans mostly argue about more or less
of what we already have; that is, what we already have too much of, an
expensive, ineffective government. Democrats, in particular, appear committed
to more spending, regulation and government.
The only reason the next U.S. elections are unlikely to see
the massive change that just occurred in India is the rigidity of our election
system and the fact that both parties share in the blame and the Republicans
have offered, as yet, ill-defined alternatives.
See New York Times: The trends that helped sweep B.J.P. to landslidevictory
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