At a recent conference of national pollsters, several,
including Frank Newport of Gallup and a leading Democratic pollster, Celinda
Lake, pointed to factors they thought might mitigate the broadly perceived
difficulties facing Democrats in November.
Gallup surveys point to President Obama’s mild recovery in
approval since the first of the year. Newport compares George W. Bush at this
time in the 2006 election and Obama, which shows Bush heading down from 42
percent to 37 percent on Election Day, whereas since December 2013 Obama has
moved up to 44 percent from 40 percent. Not much in absolute terms, but a much
more positive direction.
Ms. Lake cited the closeness of generic ballot test and the
poor image of the Republican Party as a couple of factors she believes will
reduce any negative impact of the year; hence, Democrats running strong,
well-funded candidates can hold and even pick up seats. She is active in
Kentucky where Mitch McConnell is threatened.
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