Kelly Needs to be a Theater Director

President Donald Trump shakes hands with John Kelly
after he was sworn in as White House Chief of Staff
 Photo: Thomson Reuters

The White House has been the stage set that Donald Trump has used to star in the first seven months of the show – “Trump.” The personalities and production has led to some riveting moments, but a poor performing government. As the President’s poll numbers collapse, he finally recognizes his problem and brought in a director. He made John Kelly, Secretary of Department of Homeland Security, the new Chief of Staff.

In the blog, “Staging the First 100 Days from the White House” (May 5, 2017), I described the unique decision structure Trump created, which will make Kelly’s job difficult:

Flat decision process. There is no chain of command. Trump is the star, he decides. Chief of Staff Preibus has some staff, but clearly he doesn’t control access or the agenda.

Centers of conflict. There are numerous power centers defending turf and viewpoints. Competition between nationalist Steve Bannon vs. globalist Jared Kushner is the highest profile conflict, but Preibus has his turf, Kellyanne Conway has hers.

Stay close to the desk. Trump is a mercurial man who tends toward the provocative and the impulsive. If you want to defend a position, an initiative or a space, stay close to his desk. The last person who talks to him often has the most influence.

Incessant tweeting. Add to that May 5th list the incessant tweeting of policies, personnel changes, insults, exhortation and random ruminations and it makes for a difficult management job.

Kelly clearly has a challenge, but the show desperately needs a strong director. Kelly should just remember the first rule of the job is don’t upstage the star. Unfortunately, the second may be don’t inhibit the star’s access to his fans or to expressing his true feelings.

Higher Education Facing Partisan Challenge

The public’s view on the positive contributions of higher education to the “way things are going in the country” has declined in the last seven years. Republicans in particular have turned negative on colleges’ and universities’ contributions to the country.

Decline of the Public’s Views
The public’s opinion of colleges’ and universities’ positive contributions has declined from 61 percent in 2010 to 55 percent this year. Much of the decline began in 2015. The public’s negative views increased 8 points during the last 2 years. The data was reported from a Pew Research poll released July 10, 2017. The poll was conducted with 2,504 adults from June 8-18, 2017.

Partisan Voices on Colleges and Universities
Partisanship is a major factor in the decrease in support for colleges and universities. There is a 36 percentage point difference between Democrat and Republican viewpoints on the positive contribution of colleges and universities to the country. Only 36 percent of Republicans have a positive view of colleges and universities, compared to a 72 percent positive view by Democrats. Few Democrats (19%) take a negative view, but a majority of Republicans (58%) do.

Republican Negative Trend
Partisan differences increased since 2015. Republicans’ positive viewpoints went into a steep decline starting in 2015, with support dropping 18 points in the last two years from 54 percent to 36 percent today.

News organizations have reported numerous stories with a negative slant toward higher education in recent years. The high cost of college, student debt loads and low graduation rates have been well covered. Recently, and of more interest to Republicans, have been stories frequently reported in conservative news sites of campus disruptions, takeovers of administrator’s offices, student protests of conservative speakers and an assertion of weak faculty and administrative responses. And, of course, conservative commentators often point out college communities’ consistent voting majorities for Democratic politicians.

Comparison of Colleges and Universities to Other Institutions
Although there has been a recent decline in the positive ratings of colleges’ and universities’ contributions to the country, Pew reports that at 55 percent positive ratings, colleges and universities are still above a host of other institutions tested.

Churches are slightly ahead at 59 percent, but labor unions (47%), banks (39%) and the news media (28%) are behind colleges and universities.

The reputation of colleges and universities is still high, but they face a host of challenging issues. The perception of higher education’s contribution to the country is important to its reputation and effectiveness, and although the recent decline is understandable, the key underlying issues need to be addressed.

Early Indicators Point to a Bad Republican Year in 2018

As of now, few national political forecasters suggest the Republicans will lose the House or suffer losses in the Senate, but current indicators and history suggest if Congress and President Trump don’t improve their performances, it could be grim in 2018.

Presidents’ reputations tend to dominate mid-term elections and the first mid-term is historically difficult. In 1982, President Ronald Reagan lost 26 Republican members. In 1992, President Bill Clinton lost 52 Democratic members and the House, and in 2010 President Barack Obama lost 63 members along with the House.

Hickenlooper for President? With Kasich?

In a recent interview, Gov. John Hickenlooper was asked about his next job. He made clear Washington is a focus of his attention.

Gov. John Hickenlooper
Photo: Theo Stroomer/Politico

He’s been working with Gov. John Kasich on health care legislation and he was asked about a presidential run with the Ohio governor. He mused that it was unlikely, but “you never know.” The last Colorado governor to run for president as an independent was Dick Lamm, who for a short time was the Reform Party nominee for president in 1996. Ross Perot, founder and funder of the party, decided he wanted the title back and took it. (His race was a bust with 8 percent of the national vote.)

Hickenlooper also confirmed most Colorado political observers’ views: Sen. Cory Gardner was damaged by the health care debacle. Hickenlooper said he was “disappointed” with Gardner and wouldn’t rule out a run for the senate in 2020.

Watch interview here (approx. mark 8:20)

Market Continues to Break Records

Thirty days after the end of a mostly positive first half of the year, the stock market continues to break records. The Dow was up 542 points for the month, ending at 10.8 higher year-to-date. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 both hit record highs. Earnings have been positive and the Federal Reserve is holding steady, projecting some, but rather restrained tightening. The underlying economy continues to show improvement, but a few indicators, such as retail sales and consumer sentiment, flattened.

One factor expected to negatively affect the economy and the market was the gridlock in Washington, but it hasn’t happened yet. In fact, one of President Trump’s best indicators is the public’s view he’s working on jobs and the economy. Trump and Republicans in general get their highest approval ratings dealing with the economy.

See The Buzz: Market ends mid-year up, but roily

What Chaos?

The original group that gathered around the Resolute Desk at the end of the first heady week has been decimated – General Flynn was first to go, next Sean Spicer and finally Reince Priebus. Vice President Pence has a secure job, and Steve Bannon appears a survivor.

General Kelly’s first recommendation as Chief of Staff is being unanimously well-received. He removed the President’s most recent personal hire – Anthony Scaramucci (July 21 to July 31).

Or as the President might say, “What chaos?”

Read The Buzz:
Gathering around the Resolute Desk
Bannon about to join Flynn?
Trump’s First Seven Days – 9KUSA; Trump has Very Big First Week

Is Trump Losing Drudge and Rasmussen?

On Friday, July 28, Drudge, a powerful ally of Donald Trump, posted Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump approval number – 41 percent (it dropped over the weekend to 39%).

That represents a historic low for Rasmussen, which, due to its sample selection technique, has approval numbers several points more positive for Trump than the average approval maintained by RealClearPolitics.com. Trump usually cites Rasmussen and criticizes all other polls as fake news.

But even more startling than the poll is it was posted by Drudge. A frequent guest at the White House, rumor has it he’s disappointed by the lack of progress on several fronts. Expect Trump and his team to become even more solicitous of Drudge concerns.

What Trump and Republicans should be most concerned about is that not only is Trump’s average approval by most polls now below 40 percent, but even his favorite pollster has him collapsing from 56 to 41 percent since the inaugural.

Read The Buzz: Trump is the 40 percent president