Change of Senate Leadership

Control of the U.S. Senate is the story of the 2014 election. For the average voter, their motivation is mostly related to President Obama’s leadership. But making Mitch McConnell, who must survive his own re-election, the new Majority Leader will have the most impact on American politics going into 2015.

Colorado Battleground Between Senate Candidates and Polls

The national forecasters are predicting a win by Republican Cory Gardner for the U.S. Senate with high levels of confidence. But Democrats and their allies are pushing back arguing there is a bias in published public polls, especially in Colorado, against Democrats. Their concern is that the “Udall is losing” final media narrative is leading to a host of negative stories about problems in the campaign and could harm turnout. Forecasters, especially Nate Silver of 538, address the bias argument admitting it is possible in Colorado, but that the forecast accounts for bias for and against a party in a particular state and throughout the entire range of states being tracked.

Hence, the election will be a test for the candidates, the public pollsters and the forecasters.

Returns Two-thirds in, Republicans Ahead by More than 110,000

The fourth update on the 2014 turnout shows returns of 1,379,962 as of Monday, November 3. They are near two-thirds of the expected turnout of 2.2 million (63%). The estimate based of voter turnout in 2010 is about 2.2 million voters (72% of active voters of 2.9 million). They are 47 percent of the active registration of 2,916,145.

If the expected turnout is to be reached, more than 800,000 votes will need to come in by 7:00 pm, November 4, and be counted as soon as possible.

Republicans continue to overperform their registration (41% returns on 32% registration). Democrats run at about their percentage of registration and unaffiliated behind theirs (26% compared to 35% of registration). Republicans maintain their lead over Democrats in returns by more than 110,000.

Ballot mailing began Tuesday, the day after Columbus Day, October 14. First returns were reported Friday, October 17.

Republicans continue to hold a lead of 9 points, or more than 100,000 partisans.

Final Senate Forecast

Nationalization of the 2014 election was partially driven by the rise of the forecasts. A group of institutions that sponsor the mixture of statistics, computing power and political judgment that produces daily probabilities as to the winner of individual states and in aggregate control of the U.S. Senate. The major players and their predictions for Senate control as of November 3, 2014 are:

Thirteen states have been closely monitored as the core of any possible change in control of the Senate. It is assumed Democrats will win former Democratic seats (now open) in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Republicans are vulnerable in Kentucky (McConnell), Georgia (retiring Chambliss) and Kansas (Roberts).

The battleground seats are Alaska (Begich), Arkansas (Pryor), Colorado (Udall), Louisiana (Landrieu), North Carolina (Hagan), New Hampshire (Shaheen) and Iowa (open D, Harkin).

Will Nancy Go Home?

leadership of the Democratic House caucus. If, as expected, Democrats lose seats in the election, this will be the third election as the leader where the party lost seats.

In fact, the party today has less seats than when she led as Minority Leader prior to the victory in the 2006 election that made her speaker. Before the 2006 election there were 202 House Democrats and today there are only 201. They are expected to lose 10 or more on November 4.

There is a debate among friends and adversaries as to her future. People close to her say she likes serving, is still a great fundraiser and now wants to help Hillary Clinton become president. But, her election track record is poor and she has become a useful target for Republican congressional candidates. Republican Mike Coffman has used her in his campaign. In general, she is a liability for candidates in close races.

At 74 years old, most of her partners, especially from California, have retired. Steny Hoyer, the Democratic House Whip, is now 75. As the heir apparent, he’s beginning to look like Prince Charles (65) – forever in waiting.

Returns Over Half in, Expect Weekend Rush

The third update on the 2014 turnout shows returns of 1,149,745 as of Friday, October 31. They are half of the expected turnout of 2.2 million (52%). The estimate based of voter turnout in 2010 is about 2.2 million voters (72% of active voters of 2.9 million).  They are 39 percent of the active registration of 2,916,145.

Expect a rush of a million ballots over the weekend and Monday, with possibly an exceptional drop-off of procrastinators and people who prefer having an “Election Day” event.

Ballot mailing began Tuesday, the day after Columbus Day, October 14. First returns were reported Friday, October 17.

Republicans continue to hold a lead of 9 points, or more than 100,000 partisans.

Media Narrative – Election 2014

The 2014 Colorado election has been intensely covered by both local and national media, plus some international coverage.

As the race closes out, stories have focused on the Democrats on the defense and media and party tactics (GOTV).

The following is a sample of coverage the last week.

Washington Post, Charles Lane, 10-29-14: In Colorado, Democrats struggle to tilt blue

According to Floyd Ciruli, a pollster with long experience in Colorado politics, most of the 411,000 new voters who registered during Udall’s term are independents. Consequently, instead of tilting Democratic, party registration in Colorado is still evenly split, with a slight edge for Republicans among “active” voters — the kind who participate in an off-year election. Says Ciruli: “The state is still in play.” Or, as any resident of a Denver suburb will tell you: It’s one-third, one-third, one-third.

The Christian Science Monitor, Amanda Paulson, 10-30-14: Senate elections 101: Colorado could come down to women’s issues

“The Democrats believed that the issue that would get them through this was reproductive rights, and they really poured money into it, probably too much,” says Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli. “The Republicans really have just one message: [Udall] votes 99 percent with the president.”

Rocky Mountain PBS I-News, Katie Kuntz, 10-29-14: Candidates woo Latino voters, ignore immigration reform

“Do you hear anyone talking about immigration reform anymore?” asked Floyd Ciruli, Denver pollster and political analyst. “They are targeting things talking directly to Hispanic voters – but there is too much downside on both sides to bring it into the general conversation.”

“I think the implication is that the issue is still controversial, there is no clear winner,” Ciruli said. Even issues related to immigration on the state level, such as the non-citizen driver’s license program, remains controversial for both gubernatorial candidates. Gov. John Hickenlooper signed the law, but it has been underfunded and difficult to access, critics have charged.

Colorado Public Radio, Megan Verlee, 10-29-14; Ground game may hold the key to electoral victory in Colorado

Political analysts predict the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races will come down to a margin of just one or two points.

“That’s turnout-able,” says longtime Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli. “That’s a number you can manage by getting a few extra votes per precinct.”
But those few extra voters may need some nudging to make sure their ballots end up in the mail, not the trash.

…

This is the first general election when every registered voter got a mail-in ballot, no matter how long it’s been since they voted. No one seems quite sure what that will mean for turnout, but it does greatly expand the potential voter pool.

“All of those people are getting a ballot, and they’re on lists, and that list is accessible to the parties,” says pollster Ciruli.