Monday, November 3, 2014

Final Senate Forecast

Nationalization of the 2014 election was partially driven by the rise of the forecasts. A group of institutions that sponsor the mixture of statistics, computing power and political judgment that produces daily probabilities as to the winner of individual states and in aggregate control of the U.S. Senate. The major players and their predictions for Senate control as of November 3, 2014 are:

Thirteen states have been closely monitored as the core of any possible change in control of the Senate. It is assumed Democrats will win former Democratic seats (now open) in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Republicans are vulnerable in Kentucky (McConnell), Georgia (retiring Chambliss) and Kansas (Roberts).

The battleground seats are Alaska (Begich), Arkansas (Pryor), Colorado (Udall), Louisiana (Landrieu), North Carolina (Hagan), New Hampshire (Shaheen) and Iowa (open D, Harkin).

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