Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Returns Two-thirds in, Republicans Ahead by More than 110,000

The fourth update on the 2014 turnout shows returns of 1,379,962 as of Monday, November 3. They are near two-thirds of the expected turnout of 2.2 million (63%). The estimate based of voter turnout in 2010 is about 2.2 million voters (72% of active voters of 2.9 million). They are 47 percent of the active registration of 2,916,145.

If the expected turnout is to be reached, more than 800,000 votes will need to come in by 7:00 pm, November 4, and be counted as soon as possible.

Republicans continue to overperform their registration (41% returns on 32% registration). Democrats run at about their percentage of registration and unaffiliated behind theirs (26% compared to 35% of registration). Republicans maintain their lead over Democrats in returns by more than 110,000.

Ballot mailing began Tuesday, the day after Columbus Day, October 14. First returns were reported Friday, October 17.

Republicans continue to hold a lead of 9 points, or more than 100,000 partisans.

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