Obama Wins on Foreign Policy

President Obama’s decision to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of the year is popular with the public.  In fact, Obama receives his best approval ratings on foreign policy issues.  Of course, his problem is that foreign policy is not considered an important issue in this election.

·         Three-quarters (75%) of Americans support Obama’s withdrawal announcement.  Only a fair majority of Republicans oppose of the withdrawal (50%).

·         Obama’s overall approval rating is in the mid-40 percent range.  The public’s approval of his handling of the economy is only 37 percent in a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (August 2011), but his handling of foreign policy garnered a 50 percent rating (NBC/WSJ) and a 62 percent approval of his handling a threat of terrorism (Washington Post/ABC News, Sept. 2011).

·         Foreign policy is considered an important problem facing the country by less than 1 percent of the public (CBS News/New York Times, Sept. 2011).

Although withdrawal is clearly a popular short-term policy, “who lost Iraq” may become a longer term foreign policy debate.

See Gallup article:  Three in Four Americans Back Obama on Iraq Withdrawal

Colorado and FOX NEWS

What happens in Colorado affects the national political conversation. Fox News regularly covers Colorado politics. Bret Baier uses our anti-tax election to launch a panel discussion of the impact on President Obama’s election prospects.

“FLOYD CIRULI, COLORADO POLLSTER: Well, I think this is a problem for the president. As you know, Colorado is a battleground state. He really needs these nine electoral votes if he’s gonna get to 270. Almost all of the campaign experts and the pundits say that Colorado is in that mix. And this election was all about how terrible this economy is. That’s what drove these anti-tax votes.

BAIER: There is an election on Tuesday in Colorado, a ballot issue called Proposition 103. It was about increasing taxes for education in the state of Colorado, and it failed. Voting no, 63.5 percent as you can see here, 36 percent said yes.

And then you go to the Wall Street Journal and they were wrapping this up today, saying ‘Colorado’s anti-tax move was equally clear at the local level.’ The Denver Post reports that ‘Aurora voters rejected a $114 million tax increase for recreation centers. Douglas County voters said “no” to school tax increases, and Canyon City voters rejected a tax for library improvements.’ The paper called the overall results ‘a killing field of tax measures.’

You look at the swing states, you heard that analyst say Colorado is important, and it is for both side, and there are seven key swing states most analysts are looking at, right there Colorado with nine electoral votes. We’re back with the panel. Steve, what about this?”

See Fox News: Is CO vote a national indicator on taxes?

Opinion Changes on Social Issues

Liberal advocates of social changes often despair that much of public opinion is locked into traditional modes of thought.  But, as recent polls on gay rights have shown compared to the early 1990s, there has been a sea change in opinion in favor of most elements of the gay rights agenda.  There has even been movement toward the liberal view of gay marriage, with a few polls showing majority support.

However, conservatives should not despair about the across-the-board liberal drift in American culture and its impact on social issues.  A new Gallup poll on gun control shows nearly a complete collapse of public support for gun control from a high of 60 percent in 1959 to 26 percent today.  Opposition to gun control went from 36 percent in 1959 to 73 percent.

Although the public wants strict enforcement of current laws, they do not support more laws banning guns.

On abortion legalization, what had seemed to be a liberal trend now appears to be a deadlock, with only a slight plurality of Americans calling themselves pro choice (49%) compared to those who adopt a pro life position (45%).

During the G.W. Bush presidency, the pro choice position climbed to the majority view in several polls (albeit just barely), but appeared to recede in the early Barack Obama presidency.

Obama Offers McIssues Strategy

President Obama is in full campaign mode with travel, talking points and policy all aimed at his tough re-election.

His recent trips to Nevada and Colorado were staged to appeal to key constituencies in swing states.

Colorado’s first visit was to a Hispanic high school to talk about the jobs bill.  His second trip went to a Denver college campus to announce his student loan initiative.  Hispanics and students are key constituents – jobs and debt are important to them.

The only difference in the two visits is that the jobs bill is now effectively old news, politically dead due to a Senate, including several Democrats, being unwilling to pass it.

So, the new strategy is the old Bill Clinton approach of McIssues.  Everyone recalls school uniforms as an education initiative.  When you can’t pass legislation, find ideas, typically with more symbolism than substance, that can be done with presidential action alone.  The mortgage and student loan changes proposed have limited impact, but high campaign value when combined with well-targeted presidential visits, good visuals and hot rhetoric about Republicans intransigence.

Western Battleground States

The West continues to receive significant attention by President Obama’s campaign. His recent trips to Nevada and Colorado (twice) were aimed at key constituencies (Hispanics, young voters, mortgage holders in swing states).

Democrats also hope to keep New Mexico in the President’s column and will at least make a run at Arizona.

But, there is also considerable action in the West at the local level. In fact, both parties are hoping to pick up senate and governor seats in the West. A quick review shows:

Ides of March Very Conservative Film

A Hollywood political movie that portrays presidential politics and candidates as cynical and corrupt is standard fair. But typically, the liberal idealists fair better than the conservative realists. The Ides of March boldly heads in a different direction. And, it stars, was written and directed by one of Hollywood’s great liberals.

The movie’s top politician and the George Clooney character is a liberal who uses the idealist rhetoric of Barack Obama and has the testosterone of Bill Clinton.

In the course of the movie, the candidate impregnates an intern (leading her to suicide), fires his campaign manager to cover up the story and sells out his ideas to accept a second-rate Ohio senator on the ticket who is a black politician.

Most of the liberals I talked to said the movie was depressing and portrays politics too cynically.

What was your take on it?

A Very Bad Quarter

The Dow Jones Industrial average was down 12 percent in the third quarter – the worst quarter since President Obama was sworn in.

The economic confidence of America has declined and it is taking Obama’s support down with it.

·       52% of Americans believe it is very or fairly likely there will be a new financial crisis (Washington Post/Bloomberg News poll, October 2011).

·       Only 42% of Democrats believe it would make much difference to their financial positions if Obama wins.  Only 48% believe their personal finances would improve (64% of Republicans believe their finances will improve if Republican wins).  (Washington Post/Bloomberg News poll, October 2011)

·       Investing confidence is at -45, down from +42 in February, back to late 2008/early 2009 levels.  65% feel little or no control over their ability to build retirement savings (Gallup/Wells Fargo poll, October 2011).

The market volatility reflects a contest between some good business news, such as earnings and low valuations, versus concern with the European sovereign debt crisis, slowdown in the world economy, and continued political instability and gridlock in Washington.

Yet, in spite of all the bad national news, the Denver area retail economy continues to improve.  The sales and use tax collection in metro Denver is up 5.75 percent this year over 2010 and up 7.1 percent in August over August a year ago.

If Main Street dominates Wall Street, there may not be double-dip recession, but continued slow growth.