Trump, Tariffs, and the Crash

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

It took Joe Biden until August of 2021, a full 7 months into his term, to lose his approval majority. After the Afghanistan withdrawal, he never came even close to closing the negative gap between the public disapproval and approval. He had failed on his claimed expertise, managing foreign policy.

Donald Trump first crossed into negative approval territory on March 14. It followed the wild first 53 days into the Administration, but April 2 “Liberation Day” is likely to be more like Biden’s chaos and pain than a celebration. Approval of his economic performance is a negative 10 points. If the public concludes Trump is not good for the economy, his claimed area of expertise, he and his party will be in serious political jeopardy.

After April 2, his approval went from 1 point down to 4 in a matter of days, while all the major market indexes passed from correction territory (down 10% from their peak) to at or near bear markets (down 20%). Trump was president in the last market crash of March 2020 as business activity began closing due to the pandemic. The economy then went into a brief recession. The odds of a slowdown in economic growth and recession have grown dramatically in the last week, in spite of the tariff pause.

The National Dashboard is a Buzz platform showing the state of public opinion for the presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

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Trump Approval Weak, But Better on Economy Than Foreign Policy Feb 22, 2017

Signal Gate: What We Learned

2017 (left) and 2025 (right)
Photos: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters and Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Five observations about Trump’s 2025 Administration were highlighted by the media and others from Signal Gate. First, although there may be mostly new players in the Trump Oval office, the show is still as chaotic and amateurish as 2017.

• Stephen Miller as the chief loyalist has the final word on Trump think – “The President was clear: green light” was his final comment.
• Vance will cross Trump to push his view. In this case, no benefits for Europe. “I just hate bailing out Europe again.”
• Contrast and criticism of Biden is important for policy and messaging. “Biden failed, Biden cratered.”
• If mistakes are made, attack the media: Goldberg gets Woodward and Bernstein award.

Signal Gate will make a contribution to President Trump’s approval about 70 days into the new Administration. As of April 1, he is down two points in approval since the inauguration; 2 points, year to date, in the Dow; 5 points in the S & P, and 10 points in the NAZ. Republicans’ most serious challenge today is their slim House majority. Pulling the Elise Stefanik nomination as UN Ambassador was a “tell” that Trump and Speaker Johnson are concerned. The Wisconsin Democratic win and Republican underperformance in Florida confirm their concern.