Friday, March 28, 2025

How Low Can Trump Go?

Waltz, Vance, HegsethFrom left, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/File

Donald Trump has never been a popular president. At the beginning of his first term, he had a record low approval after a “poorly rated” transition (Ciruli blog, 2-13-17). He started with a 40 percent approval and 45 disapproval which after three weeks became 50 percent (RTC average). Gallup pointed out Trump was the first president since approval polling began (1953, Eisenhower) for start-up approval to be below 50 percent.

His four-year average approval, as recorded by Gallup, was 41 percent with 55 percent disapproval. His approval was in a steady and narrow range with a low ceiling (49%) and a solid 35% floor. On his exit from the White House in 2021, he was at the floor in terms of public approbation.(Ciruli blog,1-20-21)

After a more than a two-month fight against the transition of power culminating in the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, Trump’s approval rating from numerous national polls was in the 30’s:

  • Gallup – Trump approval 34%
  • RCP – Trump approval 39%, disapproval 57%
  • 538 – Trump approval 38%, disapproval 58%
Although his starting approval in 2025 for the second term was higher for him, it was still low and met a surging disapproval that signaled the end of the honeymoon as his negative rating exceeded the positive 53 days (March 14) into the new administration.(Ciruli blog,3-20-25)
  • January 20 – RCP / 538 – Trump approval 50% and disapproval 43%
  • March 14 – RCP approval 47% (down 3) and disapproval 48% (up 5)

Trump is unlikely to be approved by a majority of Americans during the rest of his term if it flows as the first 53 days, and his negatives could rise above 55 percent. At that point, Trump begins to lose his many Republican “friends” in the House.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low February 13, 2017
Trump Leaves Office With Record Disapproval January 20, 2021
Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard March 20, 2025

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