Democrats Losing the Senate

2024 Senate ratings Sept 6, 2024 | Photo: Center for Politics

The latest polling averages indicate the Democrats are about to lose their one vote advantage in the U.S. Senate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball posts its September 6 map leaving Ohio’s Democratic seat a toss-up and shifting Montana into the “likely” Republican camp. Tim Sheehy has been ahead of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by 5 points in the last 3 August polls. Republicans then would have 51 senators, Democrats 48 with Ohio the toss-up. Ohio’s incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is in a very difficult re-elect with Bernie Moreno. Brown is slightly ahead in polling. Both states are likely to give their electoral votes to Donald Trump.

Colorado’s senate seat is up in 2026 and John Hickenlooper declared he will run one more race.

Is Johnston’s Tax in Trouble?

Mayor Mike Johnston | Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

A rising number of voices have been speaking out against Denver’s soaring tax rates and specifically the timing and justification of Mayor Johnston’s half cent sales tax increase (raises $100 million per).

Some of the positions of caution or opposition are:

• Denver Post editorial said bad timing, already many new funds with surpluses.
• Two-thirds (64%) of Denver voters believe city taxes are “already high” and 35% of them say “way too high.” (Colorado Polling Institute, July 2024)
• City Councilman Kevin Flynn points to negative impact on residents and city’s affordability.
• Former Mayor Wellington Webb believes hospital tax (.34 of a cent) is a higher priority. Calls for delay.
• Businessman Walter Isenberg has concerns about taxes’ negative effect on business and employment.

Denver voters in recent years have said yes to most tax increases. The only “no” was the stock show arena property tax increase. Affordable housing is a high priority but the tax increases have piled up the last decade. Denver’s sales tax is now nearly 10 percent and becoming the highest in the metro area.

If the tax loses or even struggles in a narrow win, do the city council and Mayor take a message and manage priorities better within the current tax level?

RELATED:
Sales Tax Collection Falls Again 8/16/24
Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives 8/12/24
Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent 6/26/24

Ciruli Associates: 2024 Election Polling & Blogs

Vice President, Kamala Harris and Former President, Donald Trump
Photos: Grace Widyatmadja/NPR; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

The election has more twists and turns than Independence Pass. But polling at the national and state level has never been more influential. My website, Ciruli.com, the Buzz, has been tracking the presidential polling since January. It was clear that Joe Biden was in serious trouble, losing the popular vote closely and most battleground states. It was worse after the June 27 debate.

It is also now clear that the polling, using the same methodologies and pollsters, have seen a Democratic revival. The new Harris/Walz ticket is ahead of Trump/Vance if only a point or two, in both the popular and a majority of battleground states. The projection of the electoral vote has also shifted to favor the Democrats, although both candidates are well short of the 270 needed to win. Linked are the 2024 blogs on election polls and the electoral votes’ estimates since July. Also, the UC Denver School of Public Affairs panels are linked.

Updates will be posted as I begin to present at election panels hosted by CU Denver and other venues.

POLLS:
Harris Takes the Lead 8/29/24
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

ELECTORAL COUNT:
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 8/28/24
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole 7/23/24

CU DENVER PANELS:
The Rush to November 5 Begins 8/28/24
Election 2024 8/27/24

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state’s most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

“Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads”
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado