Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

As the voting nears, addressing the threats to ballot security looms larger. CU Denver School of Public Affairs is hosting a public event October 25 with election administration officials and academic experts on the dangers of disinformation, misinformation and ongoing threats to a fair and secure election.

The early evening event will begin at 5:30 pm at the downtown Denver Campus.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
Friday, October 25, 2025 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Denver Voters Face 12 Issues on Bans, Taxes and Unions

Denver City and County Building | Photo via goackpacking.com

It is relatively easy to get on the Denver ballot and City Council is inclined to pass tax and interest groups’ proposals on to the voters. The 2024 list is long and will have considerable impact on the cost and operation of local government. Some businesses could be ended.

Taxes

• Ballot Issue 2Q – Raise its sales tax by 0.34% for Denver Health. $70 million per year
• Ballot Issue 2R – The proposal would increase the sales and use tax rate by 0.5% from 8.81% to 9.31%. $100 million per year for housing
• Ballot Issue 4A – Denver Public Schools increase its debt by $975 million
• Ballot Issue 6A – Denver increase its debt by $570 million
• Ballot Issue 7A – Regional Transportation District TABOR override

Unions

• Ballot Issue 2U – Allow some city workers to participate in collective bargaining
• Ballot Issue 2V – Allow for binding arbitration for firefighters
• Ballot Issue 2T – Remove the requirement that police officers and firefighters be United States citizens

Bans

• Initiated Ordinance 308 – Ban fur manufacturing, displaying, trading or selling
  
• Initiated Ordinance 309 – Ban slaughterhouses

Miscellaneous

• Ballot Issue 2S – Add the Agency of Human Rights and Community Partnerships as a cabinet department
  
• Ballot Issue 2W – Remove the requirement that the City Council vote on elected official salaries

At this point the two bans and the Mayor’s housing tax have generated the most opposition.

Seismic Ballot Decisions

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On October 11, 2024 Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of experts and media hosted by UC Denver School of Public Affairs. Seven citizen initiatives and seven referred by the legislature are on the ballot. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Along with a proliferation of issues this year are the wide range of topics and level of impact from narrow to several affecting the entire state’s policy and political process. Is this the best way to legislate tax, governing, biology and culture policy? What are the downsides?

Crime & justice
• Change judicial procedures
• Restrict bail for murder
• Narrow parole for violent crime
• Fund law enforcement
• Tax firearms and ammunition

Animals
• Ban mountain lion, bobcat, lynx hunting
• Add veterinary associates

Elections
• Create all candidate, open primary / ranked choice voting

School policy
• Add right to school choice

Marriage / abortion
• Repeal marriage definition
• Add right to abortion and funding

Miscellaneous
• Change initiative deadlines
• Change property tax for disabled veterans
• Increase sports betting revenues for water projects

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Election Security and Ballot Decisions

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

CU Denver School of Public Affairs is hosting a series of public events to inform and engage voters. The next election panels with Colorado’s top political experts, journalists and commentators are focused on the state’s crowded issue ballot and the threats to maintaining ballot security. Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs, will moderate a panel of Colorado on ballot issues October 11.

Panel dates and topics are:

• October 4 - First Friday Breakfast: Latinx Voters: Hold Sway
• October 11 - Afternoon event: The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
• October 25 - Afternoon event: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
• November 8 - First Friday Breakfast: Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

All events are held at:

CU Denver School of Public Affairs
1380 Lawrence St., 2nd Floor
Denver, Colorado

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information here.

Rates are Moving Down. Is the Market Moving Up?

The long-expected lowering of interest rates began this week when Federal Reserve dropped the rate by half a point (September 18, 2024). The markets have been volatile but resilient this year. The Dow was up 10 percent in mid-September after gaining nearly 14 points in 2023. The S&P gained 18 in mid-September after a 24 percent sprint in 2023. The initial market reaction after the rate change was a jump to record territory in the major indices.

The economy remains strong although hiring has slowed and credit card and car payments have fallen behind, causing concern that a recession is still possible.

RELATED:
Waiting for the Federal Reserve 5/21/24

Harris Wins the Debate But the Race is Close

Trump/Harris Debate | Photo: Tayfun Coskun via Getty Images

Every poll, and all but the most MAGA pundits, has Kamala Harris winning the debate. Now the question is will it move the people to vote? Ten days after the debate, Harris has moved up in the popular vote. She now has a two-point lead, 49 percent to 47 for Donald Trump, but battleground states are very close (48% to 48%).

The Democrats are up 2 points over Republican congressional candidates but control of the House is decided district by district and many observers believe Republicans have a slight advantage. The two most competitive Senate races are in Montana and Ohio. Republicans have the current lead in Montana and Democrats in Ohio, giving them a 51 to 49 national lead as of today.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

Polls showing Harris Won the Debate
Harris seen as debate winner while maintaining slight lead over Trump
Gary Langer, ABC News (9/16/24)

Majority of American say Harris won the debate
Chris Jackson, Sarah Feldman, Johnny Sawyer, Ipsos (9/16/24)

CNN Flash Poll: Majority of debate watchers say Harris outperformed Trump onstage
Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN (9/11/24)

Harris wins the debate: Voters say she has clearer plans and tells fewer lies than Trump
Taylor Orth, David Montgomery & Carl Bialik, YouGov (9/12/24)

Only a Few States Will Decide the Race

Vice President Kamala Harris | Photo Middle East Images via Getty Images

Kamala Harris has a two-point lead (RCP) in popular votes at the end of debate week (September 14). She won the debate but the fight for the White House is in seven battleground states. The advantage shifts frequently between Harris and Donald Trump as each new poll is posted, usually with differences within the margin of error. Joe Biden and Trump fought in the same states in 2020, meaning the other 43 are still rated mostly safely decided.

Biden was 4 or more points behind in the southern tier of states, Georgia to Nevada during his debate week (June 27). It was closer in the north tier of states from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania but he was still behind. Today Harris is winning 3, losing one (Arizona) and tied in three (Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina). But her appeal to younger voters, minorities, and women has changed the calculations.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

RELATED
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Democrats Losing the Senate

2024 Senate ratings Sept 6, 2024 | Photo: Center for Politics

The latest polling averages indicate the Democrats are about to lose their one vote advantage in the U.S. Senate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball posts its September 6 map leaving Ohio’s Democratic seat a toss-up and shifting Montana into the “likely” Republican camp. Tim Sheehy has been ahead of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by 5 points in the last 3 August polls. Republicans then would have 51 senators, Democrats 48 with Ohio the toss-up. Ohio’s incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is in a very difficult re-elect with Bernie Moreno. Brown is slightly ahead in polling. Both states are likely to give their electoral votes to Donald Trump.

Colorado’s senate seat is up in 2026 and John Hickenlooper declared he will run one more race.

Is Johnston’s Tax in Trouble?

Mayor Mike Johnston | Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

A rising number of voices have been speaking out against Denver’s soaring tax rates and specifically the timing and justification of Mayor Johnston’s half cent sales tax increase (raises $100 million per).

Some of the positions of caution or opposition are:

• Denver Post editorial said bad timing, already many new funds with surpluses.
• Two-thirds (64%) of Denver voters believe city taxes are “already high” and 35% of them say “way too high.” (Colorado Polling Institute, July 2024)
• City Councilman Kevin Flynn points to negative impact on residents and city’s affordability.
• Former Mayor Wellington Webb believes hospital tax (.34 of a cent) is a higher priority. Calls for delay.
• Businessman Walter Isenberg has concerns about taxes’ negative effect on business and employment.

Denver voters in recent years have said yes to most tax increases. The only “no” was the stock show arena property tax increase. Affordable housing is a high priority but the tax increases have piled up the last decade. Denver’s sales tax is now nearly 10 percent and becoming the highest in the metro area.

If the tax loses or even struggles in a narrow win, do the city council and Mayor take a message and manage priorities better within the current tax level?

RELATED:
Sales Tax Collection Falls Again 8/16/24
Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives 8/12/24
Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent 6/26/24

Ciruli Associates: 2024 Election Polling & Blogs

Vice President, Kamala Harris and Former President, Donald Trump
Photos: Grace Widyatmadja/NPR; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

The election has more twists and turns than Independence Pass. But polling at the national and state level has never been more influential. My website, Ciruli.com, the Buzz, has been tracking the presidential polling since January. It was clear that Joe Biden was in serious trouble, losing the popular vote closely and most battleground states. It was worse after the June 27 debate.

It is also now clear that the polling, using the same methodologies and pollsters, have seen a Democratic revival. The new Harris/Walz ticket is ahead of Trump/Vance if only a point or two, in both the popular and a majority of battleground states. The projection of the electoral vote has also shifted to favor the Democrats, although both candidates are well short of the 270 needed to win. Linked are the 2024 blogs on election polls and the electoral votes’ estimates since July. Also, the UC Denver School of Public Affairs panels are linked.

Updates will be posted as I begin to present at election panels hosted by CU Denver and other venues.

POLLS:
Harris Takes the Lead 8/29/24
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

ELECTORAL COUNT:
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 8/28/24
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole 7/23/24

CU DENVER PANELS:
The Rush to November 5 Begins 8/28/24
Election 2024 8/27/24

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado’s key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state’s most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

“Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads”
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado