Brough in Lead - Most Voters Undecided

First debate in race for Denver mayor: Candidates give their views on affordability and the cost of living in Denver Photo: 9news.com

With only three weeks until ballots go out, 59 percent of Denver voters have little idea as to who they will vote for on April 4th, election day. Kelly Brough appears to be the front runner (8%) in a field of candidates few know. Her lead is less than the margin of error over second place Leslie Herod (6%).

Brough is the last name on the ballot, but first in fundraising. The March financial reports will likely show her in an ever more substantial lead. Expect media advertising to begin shortly.

The poll was sponsored by a business political committee, no doubt concerned that voters are not yet engaged.

Will 20 Percent be Enough for First Round in Chicago?

From left, Chicago mayoral candidates Ja’Mal Green Sophia King, Kam Buckner, Wille Wilson, Brandon Johnson, Paul Vallas, current Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Roderick Sawyer and Jesus “Chuy” Garcia get ready to debate one another at WLS-TV ABC Channel 7’s studio, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023, in Chicago. (Tyler Pasciak/Chicago Sun-Times via AP)

In Chicago’s 2019 mayor’s race, Lori Lightfoot came in first out of a field of 14 candidates with 17.5 percent. In second was Toni Preckwinkle with 16 percent. Lightfoot won the runoff and became the mayor.

This year, the incumbent has been running second or third in a nine-person race that could also produce a first round winner at or below 20 percent.

We will know tonight. Polls show a close race among the top four candidates with former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas in the lead. Early voter turnout is at a record level.

Orange County Has No There There

Orange County is a large, sprawling suburb with no single population center. As the table below shows, it has seven cities with a population over 100,000 out of 34. The County is a network of mostly contiguous small-to-mid-sized municipalities.

The County is the third largest out of 58 in California but its cities only rank 10th (Anaheim), 13th (Santa Ana) and 14th (Irvine), out of a list dominated by Los Angeles (3.9 million), San Diego (1.4 million) and San Jose (1.0 million).

Japan’s New National Security Strategy

The U.S. and Japan Diplomacy Program starts its 2023 schedule with a panel of U.S. and Japanese professors and foreign policy experts discussing Japan’s new national security strategy.

The program on foreign policy and security strategy in the Indo-Pacific was begun in 2019 by the Korbel School’s Crossly Center for Public Opinion Research directed by Floyd Ciruli.

The first panel will be in person and on Zoom on Thursday, March 2, at 5:00 to 8:00 p.m. at the Korbal School Maglione Hall. Dinner will be served.

RSVP HERE

AP Photo/Evan Vucci
President Joe Biden meets with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Akasaka Palace on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo.

RELATED: The Year of the Indo-Pacific

SCFD Has 35-Year History of Voter Approval

Governor Roy Romer signed the legislation creating the Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) on July 1, 1987, with supporters gathered around his desk. In November 1988, 75 percent of Denver metro voters in six counties authorized the collection of the sales tax, producing about $14 million for distribution to regional cultural organizations starting in 1989. Today, more than $85 million will be distributed.

Picture from RMPBS

Since its initial approval by Denver regional voters, SCFD has had three successful renewal elections. Most recently in a 2016 election with 1.3 million voters participating, it won in all seven metro counties with a 63 percent average.

The district’s closest vote was in 1994, a mid-term election which saw an angry national electorate end 40 years of Democratic rule of the U.S. House of Representatives. It was also just two years after the passage of the tax limitations TABOR amendment in Colorado.

In the 2016 district-wide approval, the SCFD carried Boulder (71%) and Denver (73%) by its largest margins but also won the suburbs of Arapahoe (61%), Jefferson (59%) and very Republican Douglas (58%) by a wide margin–6 percentage points or more. Historically, more blue-collar Adams County is more resistant to regional tax-related votes. Adams voters said yes by 52 percent.

Although Colorado is now a blue state in its partisan orientation, it remains independent enough to say “no” on various statewide and local taxes to keep leaders, interest groups, and office holders cautious on tax initiatives. The next renewal will require SCFD to have support from a new group of leaders–such as the Metro mayors featured below.

Arvada Mayor Marc Williams, Aurora Mayor Steve Hogan, Greenwood Village Mayor Ron Rakowsky and Denver Mayor Michael Hancock with Popsicle at Mayors Launch SCFD GOTV, Oct. 4, 2016

California Population is Dropping

The U.S. Census reports California lost 500,000 residents since 2020, the last census published. At that rate it will lose multiple congressional seats in 2030, the next reapportionment. The state lost one seat in 2020 as it went from 53 to 52 U.S. Congressional representatives, the first loss in the state’s history.

Population experts point to pandemic deaths, declining birth rates and low internal and foreign immigration. Mostly, arrivals have slowed and departures increased.

RELATED: California’s Losing Population and Power

California Votes Democratic for President but It Cycles

California has voted Democratic in eight presidential elections since 1992 when Bill Clinton beat George Bush with some help from Ross Perot. But prior to this long Democratic run, Republicans took California’s electoral votes nine times, from Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 to George H.W. Bush’s election in 1988 with the exception of the Goldwater landslide in 1964. And Ike interrupted a five-election run for Democrats beginning with Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 and ending with Harry Truman in 1948.

Today, Democrats appear well embedded in the state beyond presidential electors. They control all statewide offices, and substantial majorities of the Congressional delegation and legislature. But nationally a poor nominee or foreign or democratic crisis can change presidential politics quickly.

Even Orange County, which voted Republican since 1936, has slowly shifted toward the Democrats but well behind the pace of the statewide vote. Republican presidential candidates have garnered 10 percent or more support in Orange County since 1992 but barley held it in 2008 as they faced 60 percent Democratic statewide victories. Republicans finally lost the county with Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton in 2016. The defeat was duplicated in 2020 when Joe Biden beat Trump by a similar 9 percentage points. Although Orange was the last of the big California coastal counties to shift blue in presidential politics, it remains purple in local elections.