Monday, February 13, 2023

California Votes Democratic for President but It Cycles

CA Seal and OC Logo

California has voted Democratic in eight presidential elections since 1992 when Bill Clinton beat George Bush with some help from Ross Perot. But prior to this long Democratic run, Republicans took California’s electoral votes nine times, from Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 to George H.W. Bush’s election in 1988 with the exception of the Goldwater landslide in 1964. And Ike interrupted a five-election run for Democrats beginning with Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 and ending with Harry Truman in 1948.

CA Presidential Voting Preference

Today, Democrats appear well embedded in the state beyond presidential electors. They control all statewide offices, and substantial majorities of the Congressional delegation and legislature. But nationally a poor nominee or foreign or democratic crisis can change presidential politics quickly.

Even Orange County, which voted Republican since 1936, has slowly shifted toward the Democrats but well behind the pace of the statewide vote. Republican presidential candidates have garnered 10 percent or more support in Orange County since 1992 but barley held it in 2008 as they faced 60 percent Democratic statewide victories. Republicans finally lost the county with Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton in 2016. The defeat was duplicated in 2020 when Joe Biden beat Trump by a similar 9 percentage points. Although Orange was the last of the big California coastal counties to shift blue in presidential politics, it remains purple in local elections.

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