Republicans’ Fortunes Improved in West

Arizona polling averages (RCP) remain within the margin of error but over the last few weeks have shifted toward Republican candidates. Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Governor’s average doubled since October 16 (1%/10-16-22), and Mark Kelly, the Democratic frontrunner for Senate, has seen his average drop from 4 to 2 points since October 3.

D for Democrat, R for Republican, front runners lead on October 3 and 24/Real Clear Politics

In Nevada and Oregon, Republicans are ahead for governor (Lombardo 2% and Drazan 2%) and the Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt is 1 point up in Nevada. All five the races are extremely close but appear to be moving Republican in voter sentiment.

READ: https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2022/10/trumps-team-make-inroads-in-arizona-and.html

Lots of Late Polls, Questions on Sources and Methods

As Colorado balloting starts polls begin surfacing claiming candidates are doing better than the conventional wisdom claims. One just appeared to show Joe O’Dea in a tight Senate race with Michael Bennet and another, Adam Frisch, is beating Lauren Boebert by five points in the 3rd Congressional District.

The O’Dea poll is from the Senate Opportunity Fund (9-27-22) a PAC for Republican Senate candidates. A host of polls since the summer show Bennet ahead by at least 6 points. The current average from Real Clear Politics’ site polls is 8.

The Frisch poll was conducted by Center Street PAC (10-6-22) and polled 144 registered voters (some not in the district), showing a 45 to 40 percent advantage for Frisch. The last credible poll showed Boebert up 2 points (the closeness of which was a surprise).

It is possible the two polls are not outliers and captured trends, O’Dea and Frisch may even win. It will be major news if it happens. Late conducted polls are mostly fundraising devices and efforts to change the expectations of elites, especially in the media.

READ: POLL: Lauren Boebert Tied With Adam Frisch in Colorado-03 Among Registered Voters, But Frisch Struggles to Raise Awareness

SOF Polling (10/4/22) Memorandum
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/04/lauren-boebert-tied-democrat-midterm-poll

Denver Press Club Hosts Election Panel

Ballots are out, after November 8, who will control Congress? Will Colorado Republicans recover from their 2018 debacle? Did the mail back voting work? Is 2024 Biden vs. Trump? The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political pundits to examine the election results, the impact and what’s next.

The panel:

• Patty Calhoun, Editor, Westward
• Dick Wadhams, Republican consultant, commentator, former state party chair
• Steve Welchert, Democrat consultant, commentator, directs numerous ballot and congressional campaigns
• Luigi Del Puerto, Editor, Colorado Politics
• Floyd Ciruli, Director, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at DU

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 7:00 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place. The event is free for members and $10 for non-members.

RSVP HERE

Can Caruso Win the L.A. Mayor’s Race?

Congresswoman Karen Bass and billionaire businessman Rick Caruso to face off in the November general election. (Bass photo by John McCoy/AP; Caruso photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

Since the June 7, 2022, primary it has been assumed Congressperson Karen Bass, who won by 7 points (43% to 36%) was the strong frontrunner over developer Rick Caruso for the November 8 election. In a Democratic majority city during a midterm election, she appeared to hold the advantage. Indeed, she has the near unanimous endorsements of the Democratic party and the municipal establishment from President Biden on down.

However, Caruso didn’t give up and has spent a total of $80 million on what is now a saturation advertising and direct voter contact campaign. Polls are mixed but it appears the race has closed with a new poll claiming Caruso is ahead by 3 points.

The latest poll of only a sample of 400 likely voters, could be an outlier but it may reflect a growing disenchantment with the entire City Hall establishment due to the explosive tape on redistricting city council districts. Along with crime and homelessness, Caruso’s main theme has been “an outsider is the solution to the persistent corruption in City Hall”. Polls mostly show a quarter of the electorate still undecided. Do they break for Bass or is this a tight race to the end?

Are the Democrats Over Playing Abortion?

With two weeks left in the mid-term election and almost a quarter of the vote already cast Colorado Democrats are hoping the abortion issue will be sufficient to support another cross-the-board victory like 2018. Unfortunately, all the national signs are that abortion has faded in public concern and inflation, which Democrats and especially President Biden get blamed for, is becoming dominant.

Valerie Richardson in a conservative Washington Times article quoted Dick Wadhams and me on the issue in reference to Republican Senate candidate Joe O’Dea.

Washington Times:

For Democrats, however, there are signs that the abortion issue, which shot to the forefront after the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson overturning Roe v. Wade, is running out of steam.

“The effect of the Dobbs decision has really slowed, and with these increasing reports of inflation and the economy and then I’ll throw in crime, especially here in Colorado, I think it definitely makes O’Dea competitive to win this thing,” said Mr. Wadhams.

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said that Democrats “have put everything, including these independent operations, into abortion.”

“Well, abortion is an issue that decays quicky. It turns over,” said Mr. Ciruli, director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research. “People get tired of it. And now the economy is the big nasty issue.”

As a result, he said, “there’s a sense, including in the O’Dea race, that the Democrats are going to have to revise their strategy for these last few weeks. They’re going to need to change themes or step it up, because that’s an advantage for him at this point.”

Joe O'Dea, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

He compared the race to the 2014 Senate contest in which Democratic Sen. Mark Udall placed an enormous emphasis on women’s issues, earning the nickname 'Mark Uterus,' and ultimately lost to Republican Cory Gardner.

Mark Udall, that was the only issue he played, and by Oct. 1, the national tide that was helping Cory pulled forward, and he eked it out. Is that happening here?

"I don’t know," Mr. Ciruli said. "But that’s a Democratic concern."

READ: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/20/joe-odea-gambles-big-colorados-independent-voters-/

Western Pollsters Gather – Analyze 2022 Midterm and the Politics of 2024

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will meet in San Francisco December 1 and 2 to present new research on public opinion trends.

One of the popular panels titled “Election Issues in Western States” will sift through the results of the 2022 midterm and discuss the likely political changes, including a preview of 2024. The panel assembles California’s top pollsters and political analysts with colleagues from Western states.

Scheduled to attend are:

• Mark DiCamillo – Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll
• Mark Baldassare – President of the Public Policy Institute of California, conducts statewide polls
• Brianne Gilbert – Director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles (StudyLA), senior lecturer at LMU
• Floyd Ciruli – Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research at University of Denver

Also invited to comment is Mark Barabak, columnist for the Los Angeles Times, who regularly covers western political trends and, of course, California.

I will moderate the panel and discuss the midterm election trends in Western States, especially Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon, and the polls and results in Colorado.

Politico: Can Colorado Be the Seat That Decides Senate Control?

Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and Joe O'Dea, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. (AP Photo)

In a long review of the Colorado senate race, Politico’s Natalie Allison concluded the race doesn’t appear as competitive as most expected. I agreed and said as of October 16 the race was still the Democrats’ to lose. The Republicans would need a very strong closing to make it a “sleeper state”:

“Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster who now directs the University of Denver’s polling program, said political observers in the state entered the election believing there was a chance the Senate seat could flip.

“Ciruli said there’s no question inflation is voters’ No. 1 concern, and that Biden isn’t particularly popular there. And he doesn’t doubt that polling this year – Colorado no exception – is missing the full extent of the populist vote. All the same, disenchantment with national Democrats doesn’t seem to be rushing in a red wave in Colorado,” he said.

“We could be surprised on the 8th, but at the moment where the polls are, there’s the sense that Independent voters just may not be available to the Republicans” this year in Colorado, Ciruli said.

READ: The sleeper state Republicans are targeting to win the Senate