9News on Why First Presidential Debate Important

9News Nelson Garcia did a pre-debate interview on the importance of the first face-to-face confrontation between the candidates. I offered a number of observations.

The last debate I covered with 9News was in October 2012 in Denver. It was the first meeting between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, and the consensus was Romney won. It indeed tightened the race for a few days, but Obama went on to win, including in Colorado. 

Garcia started the interview discussing the impact.

Debates can have an impact.

“They just attract a big audience,” Ciruli said. “I think that this is going to be a record audience.”

It only takes a couple of percentage points to change the dynamics of this race. About two points would make it a lot closer and if it was only a five-point race, then I think all of us would say it looks a lot like 2016.

If it closed a couple of percentage points and you could relate it to this debate, that would make this a very, very important debate.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan had a good debate with Jimmy Carter and what it did is it didn't particularly change the numbers, but it built his ultimate landslide.

President Trump needs to change the dynamics of the race.

He has been down 7 or 8 points really since probably mid-June and he has got to change the direction of this race. He's got to shake this race up so it's very important for him to do very well.

They are both at risk. This is an important debate for both of them. I don't think Trump is going to get too many more chances to change the direction of this race.

The President needs a real home run here.

Vice President Biden must prove he is up to the job.

If there is one attack the President has launched that has been pretty effective, it has not been law and order. It has not been that I am better on the economy. It has been that Joe Biden is too old and he's a little frail. He can't do this job. He's not up to it mentally or physically.

This will be the strongest test for him to overcome any doubts about his stamina. It’s 90 minutes and also just his ability to interact.

I think if Biden can handle that then there's a possibility that this could really cement his lead maybe even add a bit to it.

The first debate most important.

By the time we're getting to the second or third debate, a lot more people (there's already more than a million have voted) a lot more people will have already voted. While there still might be a few undecideds and a few people of interest, I think that this is the one that really is going to count.

This is the one that will get the most attention. This is the one that people are still to the extent that there is indecision? This is the one that could settle this.

WATCH INTERVIEW HERE

After Three Years of Decline, U.S. Image in the World Collapses in Last 12 Months

Since President Trump’s first days in the White House, his “America First” rhetoric and policies have alienated world leaders and their citizens. In a Pew survey of the public in 13 democracies, all U.S. allies, the U.S.’s reputation and that of Trump have dramatically declined. America’s poor image of handling the COVID-19 crisis has contributed to the collapse.

The loss of respect in the world represents a major strategic error of the last four years. A former Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, said when talking about the long-term challenges of terrorism and the need for allies:

“They were alongside us because they shared the values, the sense that terrorism was a threat to everyone. So when you go into these kind of situations, you need every ally you can get your hands on. You need all of them. You need their votes in the United Nations. You need their troops on the ground.”

The U.S. and China in the 2020 Election – A New Cold War?

Are we in danger of a new Cold War with China? World leaders are concerned. They believe the struggle could worsen the pandemic, derail the economic recovery and lead to a military conflict.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke for the gathered leaders when he said at the opening of the UN annual summit:

We must do everything to avoid a new Cold War…A technological and economic divide risks inevitably turning into a geo-strategic and military divide.

Join Professors Floyd Ciruli and Suisheng (Sam) Zhao on September 30 at 3:00 pm MT for a virtual conversation on the impact China is having on the election and the associated impact the election rhetoric and candidate positions are having on China policy. A key question is: Will the next administration inherit a new Cold War regardless of who wins? 

Join us on Zoom

September 30

3:00 pm

REGISTER HERE

Trump Depressing the Republican Ticket

 For Colorado Republicans, 2020 is beginning to look like the disastrous 2018 election. Polls show close partisan races in Douglas County, a bastion of Republican strength; the Third Congressional District, which has been rated for years as “lean” or “likely” Republican; and, of course, the U.S. Senate race where incumbent Cory Gardner can’t close the five points he’s behind Democrat John Hickenlooper.

The problem for the Republican candidates is Donald Trump, who was mostly responsible for the across-the-board defeats by 10 points or more of the entire Republican ticket in 2018, down to county sheriffs, clerks, treasurers and assessors, with a few exceptions. One exception was Scott Tipton, Republican incumbent from Cortez who had won handily for more than a decade and easily beat his challenger, Diane Mitsch Bush, by 8 points.

In a blog post, I examine the polling and why it could be a close race today. Joey Bunch in Colorado Politics headlined: Floyd Ciruli examines wisdom in polls showing Western Slope lean.

L to R: Dem. Diane Mitsch Bush, pollster Floyd Ciruli
and Rep. Lauren Boebert | Colorado Politics photo

October Surprise Early – KOA Radio

In a KOA drive-time interview with April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz, we discussed the political impact of the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. I offered it as the expected October surprise early – September 18.

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
delivers remarks at the Georgetown Law Center,
Sept. 12, 2019 | Tom Brenner/Getty Images

The issue will be high profile over the next six weeks. It is a very polarizing, very partisan and focused on President Trump. It will play well with his base, especially his evangelical voters, but it could be a problem with independent voters, especially women. He also would like it to change the subject from COVID-19 and 200,000 deaths.

It starts as a difficult issue for Cory Gardner because he must explain his shift in position from February 2016 when he said that the replacement Supreme Court nominees should be chosen by the next president. At that point, it was nine months before the election. Now, it’s 40 days. Republicans argue that the difference with 2016 is that Democrats controlled the White House then, now of course, Trump is president. It’s not clear voters will buy the argument. But a bigger problem may be that it associates him closely with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump – neither very popular in Colorado. It nationalized the race that he’s tried to make local about his accomplishments, Colorado issues and the debates.

The confirmation is also likely to bring health care and abortion into the discussion. Conservatives want a very dependable jurist and not someone like Chief Justice Roberts, who sometimes wavers. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) will be before the court on November 10 and could be ruled unconstitutional with its Medicaid expansion and protections for pre-existing conditions. Also, Roe v. Wade is frequently facing a legal challenge. Neither issue will be useful for Gardner, who’s behind in a tough race for re-election. He tends to want to focus on his position of pre-existing conditions, not outlawing the ACA, and he wisely avoids discussing his pro-life position, a minority view among most Colorado women and independent voters.

In fact, the national polls may not move much. Neither the President’s good nor bad news has changed his approval rating or the gap with Joe Biden much since early January. This may just be another issue that reinforces the status quo. In a year of high drama, with a presidential election, an impeachment, pandemic, recession, social turmoil, and now a Supreme Court confirmation, every institution in Washington is in the political conflict.

Cook Report Changes Colorado’s Senate Rating From Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

 The Cook Report just shifted its rating of the Colorado Senate race to “lean Democratic” from “toss-up” (Sept. 23, 2020).

The weight of recent polls (Cory Gardner down 5 points in most recent), the weak position of President Trump in the state (down 10 points or more), and the short time until voting (Oct. 9) motivated them to the new rating.

As The Buzz featured on Friday, September 18, Cook stood out as the only forecaster that had the race a toss-up. The Cook Report follows The Buzz, and the postings reminded them a review was in order.

In general, it has been a bad week for Gardner. A rushed Supreme Court nomination is not a positive campaign narrative for Gardner, reinforced by a high-profile criticism by the Denver Post editorial page on his change of position from four years ago.

The Cook Report rating was another setback just as Cory Gardner was attempting to change the perception of a race that was over as it begins the final six weeks.

Third Congressional District: Closest Race in the State?

A second poll in the 3rd Congressional District has the two congressional candidates and President Trump in a two-point race. The Cook Report, a political forecaster, just shifted the race to “lean Republican” from “likely Republican.” The poll findings are a surprise. Republican presidential candidates win the district. Trump swept the district by 12 points in 2016 against Hillary Clinton and the recently defeated incumbent Congressman Scott Tipton won the district in 2018 against the current Democratic nominee making her second run by 8 points.

The two polls – by different Democratic-associated research firms and sponsored by the candidate and party’s federal PAC conducted a month apart – show nearly the same result. Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush is slightly ahead of her Republican opponent, Lauren Boebert, fresh from defeating the incumbent. Trump and Joe Biden are tied in both polls. (See chart below)

The Trump number is only believable because a host of polls conducted all year show him losing the state by 10 points or more; hence, in the 3rd Congressional District, he could be running even. The political forecasters, primarily looking at voting history, have rated the district as they would with Tipton in the field, but with less certainty, and the recent polls are adding more doubt. In a July Buzz post, I asked: Tipton is gone, can the Republicans hold the seat? That is still the question. Clearly, unless Trump or Boebert change the dynamics of the Colorado race, Trump will not only lose the state, which is considered very likely, but also cost the party one of its congressional seats.

See The Buzz:

Third Congressional Now a Competitive Race