Japan-U.S. Foreign Policy Implications

Please join the Office of Global Engagement and the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research for a discussion on the future of the Japan-U.S. alliance.

Professor Toshihiro Nakayama will present a keynote speech pertaining to his expertise on Japan-U.S. relations, followed by comments from Consul-General Midori Takeuchi, Ambassador Christopher Hill, and Professor Floyd Ciruli, as moderator, and a question and answer session.

Find Consul-General Takeuchi's bio here
Find Ambassador Hill's bio here
Find Professor Nakayama's bio here
Find Professor Ciruli's bio here

Thursday, March 14, 2019 

5:00 pm Reception- hors d’oeuvres and beverages

5:30 pm Introduction followed by Keynote speech by Prof. Nakayama

6:10 pm Panel comments

6:30 pm Q&A

Maglione Hall

Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex

2201 S. Gaylord Street

Denver, CO 80208

Note: Parking passes will be sent out prior to the event

REGISTER HERE

Trump’s Campaign in Full Start: He’s Behind, But has Assets

The midterm election loss of 40 seats and control of the House was a harsh judgement on President Trump, but his recent predecessors overcame midterm losses, some even more severe, with very solid re-elections. President Reagan crushed the Democratic 1984 nominee, Walter Mondale; Bill Clinton beat Gerald Ford’s 1976 VP Bob Dole 20 years later after a disastrous 1994 midterm; and Barack Obama recovered from a 63-seat “shellacking” in 2010 and went on to defeat Mitt Romney by 5 points two years later.

Trump’s circumstance is somewhat more perilous in that his Electoral College win was without a popular vote plurality and his approval ratings for his first two years have remained in a narrow range around 40 percent.

His policies have produced passionate opposition, usually above 50 percent, including among independents, and his personality and style give even many of his supporters pause. But, Trump has his assets, often demonstrated when things seem darkest. He’s pulled businesses out of insolvency at the last moment more than once; he has kept campaigning after incidents most people, including his party peers, thought were fatal; and most important, he has shown a relentless mean streak dedicated to winning at all costs.

The Assets

Economy. Trump believes, with good reason, his greatest asset is a good economy, especially focused on helping his base of blue collar workers. Recovering and up economies accompanied Reagan’s, Clinton’s and Obama’s second term wins.

Base. “I could shoot a person on 5th Avenue and get away with it” is still true. The base is with Trump regardless of his behavior. What’s left of the Republican Party after defections is 90 percent with Trump. Even if it’s only about 35 percent of the electorate, it’s his building block for re-election.

Campaign. The 2016 campaign was disorganized until mid-August (of course, we may never know the level of outside help), but the 2020 campaign will be well-funded and well-organized from the start. It may be superior to the Democrats on social media and targeting.

Allies. Commentators suggest Richard Nixon might not have been impeached if Fox News had been dominating cable news and Rush Limbaugh talk radio. Trump has both in his camp, along with social media, extoling his accomplishments, but more importantly, pouring vitriol on his competitors and critics.

Opposition. Possibly Trump’s greatest asset is the opposition, which he loves to attack, including Democratic candidates during the entire nomination process. Much of Trump’s appeal is that he’s politically incorrect and anti-establishment. He is a master at repositioning opponents as self-interested or hypocritical or extremist – open borders, kneeling football players and socialism. The Democratic opposition is convinced Trump is beatable. It has attracted a field of more than a dozen serious candidates. But, the party is struggling to find a candidate with sufficient character and charisma that can withstand Trump’s demeaning labels and vicious tweets.

The 2020 election is more likely to be a competitive state-by-state fight than a Democratic runaway. Although polls may show Democrats ahead, Trump, with his assets, will remain within striking distance.

“America First” is Toxic to Soft Power

Mike Pence just received a first-hand experience of the collapse of America’s reputation among allies at the annual Munich Security Conference when he offered the standard, “I bring greetings from the 45th President of the United States of America, President Donald Trump,” and was met with deafening silence. It wasn’t the only rhetorical embarrassment the U.S. delegation received in Munich or at an earlier conference in Warsaw. The reviews from major editorials and news headlines were uniformly harsh:

• “Pompeo and Pence Sent a Poor Message With Their Bumbling Tour of Europe” (editorial) (Washington Post, 2-16-17)
•  “Deaf Ears in Europe” (Wall Street Journal, 2-17-19)
• “Munich Security Conference: Transatlantic Differences Laid Bare at Annual Defense Powwow” (Politico, 2-17-19)
• “Rift Between Trump and Europe is Now Open and Angry” (New York Times, 2-17-19)
• “Angela Merkel Takes Direct Aim of Trump’s Go It Alone Policies” (Washington Post, 2-17-19)
• “Vice President Pence Receives Awkward Silence in Munich After Offering ‘Greetings’ from President Trump” (Time, 2-17-19)
• “Munich Security Conference Reveals Growing Rift Between U.S. and its Allies” (NPR, 26-16-19)

Europe’s leaders are reflecting their publics. After two years of “America First” policies and Donald Trump’s often hostile conference performances, America’s reputation is in tatters. The Country’s soft power, accumulated since the end of WWII, has been squandered.

The U.S. Has Lost European Public Opinion

Favorable views of the U.S. have declined dramatically with German and French publics since President Trump took office. Now, barely a third has favorable views, down more than 30 points from just two years ago.

“America First” Looks Like “America Alone”

The soft power of a nation – its ability to persuade – is often linked to the image of the primary leaders. The silence at the Munich Security Conference is also explained by the low opinion President Trump is held in by the publics of U.S. allies. Only 9 percent of the French, 10 percent of Germans, 7 percent of Spanish and 28 percent of the UK publics have “confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs.” Trump is trusted in Israel (69%).

Pew and other international pollsters cite several factors that are key in a country’s reputation:

• How does the public perceive the U.S. is treating its own citizens?
• Is the U.S. dealing with international problems?
• Does the U.S. consider the other countries’ views?

The U.S. is failing in all three of these metrics in many western European countries and especially in Germany and France.

After numerous international meetings, especially with European leaders, the polite reserve of diplomacy is over. The U.S. and Donald Trump are hearing what our historic allies think. There will be policy repercussions as they begin to assert more resistance to our expectations of joint actions and cooperation, for example, on Iran, in Syria and having missiles in Europe.

Trump Couldn’t Just Accept the Deal, He Had to Break Another Norm

The fact that Donald Trump couldn’t accept a congressional compromise on a topic most voters are tired of shows his continued failure to learn that successful presidential politics is beyond just the base.

Donald Trump at a press conference at the White House,
Feb. 15, 2019 | Euronews

Although the wall, immigration and even shutdowns are popular with much of his base, that group now constitutes, at most, a third of the electorate, whether looking at aggregated registration data or polling self-description. In other words, having 90 percent of 30 percent is 27 percent of the total. A very modest start for an incumbent’s re-election, especially since many positions of the base are significantly out of alignment with the rest of the population.

After his State of the Union effort at repositioning as the more temperate, less caustic leader had at least stopped the hemorrhaging of support from the shutdown, he reverted Friday to conflict and another mega bizarre press conference. He is reinforcing his disruptive and authoritarian image, which produced much of the midterm reaction. And, he’s doing it for an issue that, after months of effort, he has failed to convince the public is an emergency (border security) or that it necessarily needs a wall.

I pointed out in a previous blog post, Trump has made some slight improvements in his approval ratings post SOTU, but seizing emergency power for the wall is opposed by voters 65 percent to 32 percent. A losing position, especially among independents. It also causes major tension with many Republican-elected officials who will find themselves needing to separate from the President for their own values and political self-interest.

Read:
The Buzz: Polls post SOTU and the Democratic field
The Buzz: The authoritarian presidency
FiveThirtyEight: Trump keeps doubling down on the same failed strategy

The Colorado Republican Party is Contracting

Rob Witwer changed his voter registration from Republican to unaffiliated. The former legislator was especially critical of the party’s performance in the 2018 legislative elections. He is a part of a major trend. The latest voter registration data confirms that both of Colorado’s political parties are losing to unaffiliated status among registered voters. The new century has been especially difficult for Republicans, dropping from the dominant party in 2000 with a 150,000 registration edge as George W. Bush carried the state, to a weak third place in January 2019.

Obviously, the midterm election confirmed registration trends in voter behavior, with a Democratic sweep from statewide offices, down to county commissioners, clerks, sheriffs and among many other very surprised incumbent officeholders. The Donald Trump Colorado Republican Party has a current ceiling of 43 percent. Walker Stapleton, the Republican candidate for governor, received 43 percent. The same as Trump in his presidential run in 2016.

The massive 2018 turnout, especially of unaffiliated voters, is an undeniable message to both parties – there will be few successful elections in Colorado without winning majorities of unaffiliated voters. And, although Colorado natives and the old guard can complain about outsiders moving here, many of the 2018 voters were, in fact, longtime residents motivated by Trump and the chance to send a message. But, new or old, expect them to return to the polls in 2020.

The challenges for Republican Party leaders and candidates was highlighted in new Republican voter poll reported in the Denver Post, which showed, in spite of their minority stature and midterm defeat, they wanted uncompromising conservatives (61%) as opposed to candidates that would reach across the aisle (33%). They approve President Trump by 90 percent, and they believe his emphasis on immigration is the same as theirs and shutdowns of government are justified. Neither position is shared by most voters, especially independents.

Although new Republican Party officials and aspiring candidates will come up with the tone and message to win legislative seats and counties where the party dominates, they will be immensely vulnerable in 2020 in more competitive seats. Democrats are likely to highlight Trump and those aspects of his personality and agenda that don’t appeal to a majority of Colorado voters.

Read Denver Post: Colorado Republicans back Trump’s border wall, cite immigration as top concern in poll

Dr. Harold Mendelsohn, RIP

Harold Mendelsohn,
May 26, 1967

Dr. Mendelsohn, a professor and researcher at the University of Denver for many decades, passed away at 95. He was an eminent sociologist and expert on polls and the media. His 1970s book with Irving Crespi, “Polls, Television and the New Politics,” is a classic still used today in classes. He led the professional association of pollsters, AAPOR, in the 1970s and held numerous administrative positions on the DU campus. Harold was a respected and sought after teacher.

Read obituary here
Read AAPOR memoriam here
See his Wikipedia biography here

Denver Metro Area Economy Still Running Hot

The latest sales tax data from the Colorado State Department of Revenue shows 2018 produced a 5.38 percent jump in revenue in the seven-county Denver metro area over 2017.

One percent in regional sales tax would produce $630 million for RTD and a share of it for the region’s cities and counties. It will produce $63 million to be shared by the approximate 250 organizations of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District.