Trump’s Campaign in Full Start: He’s Behind, But has Assets

The midterm election loss of 40 seats and control of the House was a harsh judgement on President Trump, but his recent predecessors overcame midterm losses, some even more severe, with very solid re-elections. President Reagan crushed the Democratic 1984 nominee, Walter Mondale; Bill Clinton beat Gerald Ford’s 1976 VP Bob Dole 20 years later after a disastrous 1994 midterm; and Barack Obama recovered from a 63-seat “shellacking” in 2010 and went on to defeat Mitt Romney by 5 points two years later.

Trump’s circumstance is somewhat more perilous in that his Electoral College win was without a popular vote plurality and his approval ratings for his first two years have remained in a narrow range around 40 percent.

His policies have produced passionate opposition, usually above 50 percent, including among independents, and his personality and style give even many of his supporters pause. But, Trump has his assets, often demonstrated when things seem darkest. He’s pulled businesses out of insolvency at the last moment more than once; he has kept campaigning after incidents most people, including his party peers, thought were fatal; and most important, he has shown a relentless mean streak dedicated to winning at all costs.

The Assets

Economy. Trump believes, with good reason, his greatest asset is a good economy, especially focused on helping his base of blue collar workers. Recovering and up economies accompanied Reagan’s, Clinton’s and Obama’s second term wins.

Base. “I could shoot a person on 5th Avenue and get away with it” is still true. The base is with Trump regardless of his behavior. What’s left of the Republican Party after defections is 90 percent with Trump. Even if it’s only about 35 percent of the electorate, it’s his building block for re-election.

Campaign. The 2016 campaign was disorganized until mid-August (of course, we may never know the level of outside help), but the 2020 campaign will be well-funded and well-organized from the start. It may be superior to the Democrats on social media and targeting.

Allies. Commentators suggest Richard Nixon might not have been impeached if Fox News had been dominating cable news and Rush Limbaugh talk radio. Trump has both in his camp, along with social media, extoling his accomplishments, but more importantly, pouring vitriol on his competitors and critics.

Opposition. Possibly Trump’s greatest asset is the opposition, which he loves to attack, including Democratic candidates during the entire nomination process. Much of Trump’s appeal is that he’s politically incorrect and anti-establishment. He is a master at repositioning opponents as self-interested or hypocritical or extremist – open borders, kneeling football players and socialism. The Democratic opposition is convinced Trump is beatable. It has attracted a field of more than a dozen serious candidates. But, the party is struggling to find a candidate with sufficient character and charisma that can withstand Trump’s demeaning labels and vicious tweets.

The 2020 election is more likely to be a competitive state-by-state fight than a Democratic runaway. Although polls may show Democrats ahead, Trump, with his assets, will remain within striking distance.