Is National Legalization of Marijuana Use Inevitable?

Although polls in Colorado make clear the vote to legalize marijuana would pass again, possibly by somewhat more than the 55 percent in 2012, there remains resistance to widespread use in some Colorado communities and demographic and political groups. Nationally, polls show majority support for legalization, but also with states, populations and politics remaining resistant.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows 63 percent of the country believes marijuana use should be “made legal in the United States.” That is similar to several polls that show national support above 60 percent. A January 2018 Quinnipiac poll showed 58 percent support for legalization.

It is also clear is that legal medical use of marijuana is now a consensus position with 93 percent of the public favoring it. Also, the public does not support enforcing federal laws against marijuana in states that have already legalized it.

• Medical marijuana legal – 93%
• Don’t enforce federal laws against marijuana in legal states – 70%

National momentum for legalization will be one of the topics at the May 15 American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver panel will consider.

Public Opinion and Legalization of Marijuana

May 15, 5:00 pm, Reception Follows

Sheraton Denver Downtown

AAPOR and the Crossley Center sponsor a panel on Marijuana, Public Opinion and Legalization.

Panelists:

Doug Schwartz – Quinnipiac University Poll, director, moderator

David Metz – President of FM3 pollsters in California

Rick Ridder – Campaign manager, pollster (international), Colorado

Skyler McKinley – Former Deputy Director of Colorado Office of Marijuana Coordination, Colorado government affairs AAA

Floyd Ciruli – Director of Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Korbel School, DU, pollster

Denver Post’s Amazing Shout Out

Much of the nation’s media have written about and praised the Denver Post’s editorial page effort to shout out to Colorado readers that they are losing their only statewide newspaper by steady and accelerating economic attrition. But even after the effort and some suggested remedies, there remains a sense of inevitability about it – the hidden hand of market, technology and out-of-town investors, which can’t really be stopped.

Most of us recognize the quality of political life in the Denver metro region, which represents 55 percent of the state’s population, and much of its economy, sports and cultural infrastructure was diminished by the loss of the Rocky Mountain News. Today, decline of the Denver Post’s finances and reporting reach and depth, often highlighted by the thinness of the Monday edition, are a common topic of the quarter of the population that actively engage in daily local news consumption.

A sketchy version of public policy aspects of good journalism, including accountability in government, coverage of political competition for office and policy differences, and providing the forums for discussion, is moving to digital platforms. Possibly, an Amazon Prime of politics and public policy will replace the print edition. But, we will still miss the connectivity of a well-written and edited newspaper and the public service of investigative journalism that requires exceptional levels of resources and talent.

The transition to digital is leaving gaps in coverage and in our public life that newspapers best filled, but are rapidly diminishing.

Read The New Republic: Finance is killing the news

Foreign Policy Opinions: Public Likes Meetings and Tough Sanctions

President Trump is on sound ground when he advocates meetings with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. A majority of Americans (52%) believe Trump should invite Putin to the White House to improve relations. Slightly more (56%) support Trump meeting with Kim Jong Un to try to get North Korea to give up nuclear weapons. They are highly skeptical it will happen (two-thirds not likely to happen), but favor the summit.

Although the public sees Russia and North Korea as threats, they support meetings, diplomacy and sanctions before conflict. For example, the public supports tougher sanctions on Russia. Sixty-eight percent advise “tougher sanctions” against Russia, including Republican (68%). A CNN poll on North Korea asked if people believed the “situation involving North Korea can be successfully resolved using only economic and diplomatic efforts.” Sixty-three percent believed it could.

See Washington Post/ABC News poll findings here

Both Parties Head for Tough Primaries; Kennedy and Stapleton Secure Top of the Ballot

As readers of The Buzz already know, Cary Kennedy and Walker Stapleton are the frontrunners of their respective parties’ nomination ballots as the two parties head into tough and expensive primaries. Both parties will likely have four candidate fields once petition certification is completed by the Secretary of State.

Democratic Convention
At Saturday’s Democratic State Convention, former State Treasurer, Cary Kennedy, crushed Jared Polis for top position on the ballot (62% to 33%). As earlier straw polls had indicated, Polis barely made the ballot.

It is likely to be a four-person primary. Democrat Mike Johnston is already on the ballot by petition and has money, if not much of a base in the regular party. He will need unaffiliated voters. Donna Lynn is awaiting certification, but unlikely to be a factor.

Republican Convention
Although Walker Stapleton still doesn’t have the whole-hearted support of the Republican Party’s rank and file conventioneers (he does better in polls), he crushed his main rival, Cynthia Coffman, who failed to make the ballot. His 44 percent win over former Parker mayor, Greg Lopez, secures his position as top of the ballot and party frontrunner.

The Republican Convention was an embarrassing loss for Coffman. As The Buzz related, she attracted little support in caucus and county assembly straw polls. In fact, Stapleton regularly beat her. His shift to the state convention was her doom, which she recognized, launching a vicious, late, but forlorn attack.

A couple of non-participants in the Republican conventions will likely be players in the primary. Vic Mitchell has money to spend on TV and a good pollster. Doug Robinson will be another Stapleton critic, assuming they both make the ballot. Greg Lopez will not likely be a top finalist once money enters the race. His convention win demonstrates many party activists are still looking for that conservative outsider who will take on the system. All the better if the person is the member of a minority the party must get more of if it is to survive in Colorado.

Read The Buzz:
KOA: Walker Stapleton Drops Petitions and Goes to Convention – April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz
Kennedy and Stapleton Frontrunners in Early Race
9News: Will Unaffiliated Voters Affect the Governor’s Race?
Governing Magazine Lists Colorado’s Governor’s Race Competitive

AAPOR National Polling Conference Panel on Marijuana Legalization – May 15

The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) will hold its national conference for the first time in its 71-year history in Denver this May. Its opening panel on the legalization of marijuana is co-sponsored with the University of Denver-based Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the Korbel School. The panel for AAPOR members is open to the public and will be held May 15 at 5:00 pm at the Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel.

Marijuana legalization will be examined from the perspective of the interaction of public opinion and public policy. Beyond the extensive research of national trends, we now have opinion to study in several states at different stages of implementation with a variety of regulatory regimes.

Not only is public opinion analyses useful, but a variety of other metrics are available as acceptance and resistance within “legal” states continues with local votes on distribution and taxation. Also, there are growing numbers of studies, often using survey research about benefits and costs, including criminal activity, youth usage, health issues and driving.

Some topics for public opinion and marijuana panel are:

• Current national status of public opinion on legalization of marijuana
• Is national acceptance inevitable?
• Which states are next to legalize? Which are not?
• Change in opinion/political environment due to Attorney General Sessions’ position. Impact on legalization in more states.
• How does it affect adoption of recreational use in legal states?
• Impact of President Trump’s comments on enforcement
• Colorado 5 years into legalization 
• What is the geography of recreational/commercialization acceptance?
• What are the economics of marijuana, tax benefits?
• California one year in
• Merge of medical and recreation
• Conflicts between legal and illegal

Public Opinion and Legalization of Marijuana

May 15

5:00 pm

Reception Follows

Sheraton Denver Downtown

Panelists:

Doug Schwartz – Quinnipiac University Poll, director, moderator
David Metz – President of FM3 pollsters in California
Rick Ridder – Campaign manager, pollster (international), Colorado
Skyler McKinley – Former Deputy Director of Colorado Office of Marijuana Coordination, Colorado government affairs AAA
Floyd Ciruli – Director of Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Korbel School, DU, pollster

Strengthening American Democracy

Floyd Ciruli speaking at WorldDenver

Before an audience of 150 at a WorldDenver event on the worldwide crises of democracy, the loudest applause came on the topic of defending American democracy.

I related a list of actions the next administration should enact with Congress. Most of the actions were political norms that historically didn’t need statutory rules – they were usually followed, but not today. Hopefully, both parties will see the benefit of ensuring that American democracy continues to function as designed and intended, namely with a constrained executive, within clear boundaries.

Norms, like precedence, are expectations. Codifying and strict enforcement of most of the items on the list – for example, disclosure of tax returns, enforcement of limits on emoluments, prohibition of nepotism, limits on pardons – didn’t appear necessary, but when they are disregarded by an executive and other restraints are failing, statutes are necessary.

Amb. Christopher Hill and Floyd Ciruli at WorldDenver event

Denver Press Club Hosts Panel on May 8 on Trauma of 1968 – Remembering Bobby Kennedy – Assassinated June 5, 1968

Robert Kennedy addresses a mostly black crowd
of 2,500 in Indianapolis, breaking the news of
Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination,
April 4, 1968 | Indianapolis Monthly

The Denver Press Club is hosting a presentation and panel on the turmoil and trauma of 1968 on the
year’s 50th anniversary. The year saw the assassinations of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bobby Kennedy.

On April 4, after King was assassinated, Kennedy, campaigning in Indianapolis, spoke to a crowd of predominately African American supporters in what was later considered his politically bravest and best speech of his career. More than 100 cities saw riots after King’s death, but not Indianapolis.

See my blog of Bobby Kennedy’s speech on the night Dr. King died here.

1968: A Year of Turmoil and Transition
Denver Press Club
1330 Glenarm Place
Tuesday, May 8
Social Hour – 5:30 pm
Panel and presentation – 6:30 pm