Trump, Glenn Winning El Paso County – But is it Enough?

In a new Ciruli Associates poll for the Colorado Springs Gazette, Republican Donald Trump and hometown U.S. Senate candidate, Darryl Glenn, are winning El Paso County voters. Not surprising in the Republican-rich county, but their margin may be too small to win the state. Trump is receiving 50 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 32 percent. Glenn receives 51 percent of voter support to Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet’s 35 percent.

In a four-way race, Trump has 47 percent, Clinton 30, and the two main independent candidates split 10 points (Gary Johnson and Jill Stein).

In recent history, statewide Republican candidates receive about 60 percent of the El Paso County vote. If forms an essential component in their statewide vote.

See The Gazette:  Trump and Glenn widely favored by El Paso County voters in new Gazette poll

AAPOR Salutes Helen Crossley

Helen Crossley

The polling profession’s premier association – the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) – memorialized the passing of Helen Crossley in its October AAPOR News.

Helen founded the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the Korbel School.

Read the AAPOR’s In Memoriam here

End of Marijuana Holiday? El Paso County Says “No” to Marijuana Expansion

In a new Ciruli Associates poll for the Colorado Springs Gazette, 62 percent of voters oppose “expansion of recreational marijuana in Colorado Springs” – 61 percent in the city.

Dan Njegomir of The Gazette writes:

Observed veteran pollster Floyd Ciruli, the survey’s author from Colorado polling firm Ciruli Associates: “That is a pretty strong statement that there is no taste among voters for Colorado Springs changing its ban on recreational sales.” (10-25-16)

Half a Million Votes are Cast

Twenty-five percent of the Colorado electorate have cast their ballots. In an election likely to draw somewhat more than 2.5 million voters, nearly 700,000 have voted by Friday, October 28.

The Denver metro area has about 55 percent of that vote, with more than 390,000 ballots already cast.

Launch Produced SCFD Media

The outstanding media promoting a YesOn4B vote to renew the SCFD was produced by Launch Advertising, a small custom Denver media firm with exceptional creative and talent and a strong strategic sense.

They just-published an email on “The feel-good vote of the season!” It’s very good. Watch it here.

Floyd Ciruli on the BBC

The BBC broadcasted a U.S. election special last Tuesday, with Colorado as a key battleground state. Dan Damon, the journalist-host, interviewed me in an hour-long program that featured stories about Denver’s growing Millennial population, our cowboy history and the evangelical community in Colorado Springs.

You can listen to the podcast here.

Dan Damon

Photo: BBC

Colorado Presidential Vote

The Colorado presidential turnout has been increasing rapidly in this century with the state’s population surge. The initial jump of 21 percent in the 2004 election was the current record.

There are mixed views as to the Colorado presidential vote turnout this year with two controversial and broadly unpopular candidates at the top of the ticket and a non-existent race for Senate.

It is unlikely Colorado will produce 3 million votes by November 8, but the total presidential vote should increase 200,000 and get to 2.8 million.

Factors making turnout less predictable:

• Will Millennials be inspired to turn out? African Americans?
• Are weak poll numbers discouraging Trump’s angry white vote? Will some Republican moderate voters simply skip it?