The ballot initiatives of the environmental movement are
struggling to attract media, activists and funders. The politics of 2016 is
simply not as hospitable for the anti-fracking/anti-gas and oil message as it
was in 2016.
A lot has changed, and the anti-frackers haven’t changed
their basic approach.
1. Gas
and oil development is simply not the threat it was in 2014. The mega expansion
phase collapsed with prices. Today, gas and oil is contracting with lower rig
counts and fewer employees.
2. In
2014, the anti-gas and oil crowd had a number of Front Range communities that
joined the movement, not out of an environmental ideology, but due to a desire
to keep the development out of their cities (NIMBY). Partially, that threat has
receded, and importantly, their strategy of local bans was voided by the
Colorado Supreme Court. The communities are no longer providing resources or
rhetoric to back the initiative effort.
3. Although
the environmentalist have tried to broaden their appeal by incorporating local
government and environmental quality into their anti-fracking and anti-gas and
oil initiatives, the gas and oil industry got organized and has spent millions
in television advertising and public relations to counter the effort. Public
affairs weekend programs are flooded with the benefits and positive aspects of
gas and oil development. Industry spokespersons rapidly counter each
environmental initiative and statements.
4. The
environmental movement has had victories. The Keystone Pipeline will not be
built during the lifetime of this administration. But, its fall also removed at
least one issue that fueled the movement.
5. A
key missing aspect of the movement is the absence of a money source. Jared
Polis, who provided millions in 2014 to get anti-fracking measures to the
ballot, has shifted his emphasis to become a part of the House leadership. It
was made very clear to Polis in 2014 that sponsoring party dividing anti-gas
and oil ballot initiatives in Colorado was not welcome. In addition, many of
his communities in Larimer County are simply not energized about the issue in
2016.
6. Finally,
much of what passes today for the environmental movement has lost currency with
the public. The percentage of the public calling themselves environmentalists
has declined from 78 percent in 1991 at the beginning of Earth Day to 42
percent today.
Gallup, which reported the data, points to
the increasing partisan division in the term. Environmentalism became much more
partisan, especially around climate change. Only 27 percent of Republicans consider themselves environmentalists. However, even the larger proportion of
Democrats (56%) is still way down from the 78 percent who held the position in
1991.
7. Also,
Gallup points out that the public has adopted many environmental positions,
such as recycling, industry uses more solar and natural gas, and major problems
of a few decades ago, such as air pollution, have seen major progress.
The anti-fracking amendments may make the ballot, but, as of
now, it will not be the cause celeb it was in 2014.
