I believe the senate race will remain close the next couple of weeks before voting begins, but that foreign policy could be a sleeper issue that affects the race.
See 9News Balance of Power
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
NBC’s Chuck Todd and Floyd Ciruli – 9News Analysis
In discussing the Colorado midterm election, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd saw the fate of Governor Hickenlooper very much affecting the Democratic ticket in Colorado, including the U.S. Senate and 6th Congressional race. And, he said Hickenlooper is in trouble.
I believe the senate race will remain close the next couple of weeks before voting begins, but that foreign policy could be a sleeper issue that affects the race.
See 9News Balance of Power
I believe the senate race will remain close the next couple of weeks before voting begins, but that foreign policy could be a sleeper issue that affects the race.
See 9News Balance of Power
New Poll – Some Bad News for Udall
The new PPP poll has a host of data points that are bad news for Senator Mark Udall, beside it being the third poll in seven days that shows him behind. Other bad news is:- President Obama’s approval is 35% among Colorado voters. His approval among independent voters is only 28%.
- After a multi-million dollar ad campaign, Udall only wins women by 10 points over Congressman Cory Gardner, but loses men by 16 points. Udall’s dominant campaign strategy, “the war on women,” may have reached a saturation point and may be producing a backlash, especially among men.
- Nearly half the voters (49%) said they were “much less likely” to vote for a “candidate who votes with President Obama 99 percent of the time.” Another 7 percent were “somewhat less likely.”
- 56% of men said they were much less likely
- 55% of Millennials
- 51% of independents
Monday, September 29, 2014
Sixth CD in the Field – Aurora Sentinel
Voting in Colorado starts October 15 with a new Democratic-inspired universal mail-back ballot. This should benefit campaigns with the best get-out-the-vote efforts, which in 2014 are massive, expensive computer- and online-driven productions.
But, they include the candidate walking or phoning voters one at a time. Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff are full at it in Aurora battling for voters in one of the county’s closest contests.
Aurora Sentinel, Rachel Sapin, 9-25-14:
Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan Denver-based political consultant, said even in a race where only a couple thousand votes could decide an election, canvassing alone does not translate directly into a win. But he said Romanoff is gaining an experience he can talk about in a campaign ad or at a future debate with his opponent. In turn, Romanoff’s campaign is gaining information about a potential voter. The Coffman campaign is on the streets, too, gaining the same intelligence, and not gaining the same sure-fire win.
It’s not uncommon for campaigns from both parties to cull state voter data for their door-to-door efforts. The sorting often involves targeting registered voters who are unaffiliated, key constituencies or those who have voted against their party in recent years.
Ciruli said that whatever Romanoff learns about unique voters while canvassing will be added to lists the Romanoff campaign uses when ballots are mailed to voters.
“The bulk of it is to identify every voter you can as a potential supporter, and then call them the day ballot arrives,” Ciruli said. “Most of this will happen behind the scenes. It’s very expensive, and time-consuming. Democrats are concerned young people and minorities will not turn out. They’re anxious to get them all out to vote.”
But, they include the candidate walking or phoning voters one at a time. Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff are full at it in Aurora battling for voters in one of the county’s closest contests.
Aurora Sentinel, Rachel Sapin, 9-25-14:
Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan Denver-based political consultant, said even in a race where only a couple thousand votes could decide an election, canvassing alone does not translate directly into a win. But he said Romanoff is gaining an experience he can talk about in a campaign ad or at a future debate with his opponent. In turn, Romanoff’s campaign is gaining information about a potential voter. The Coffman campaign is on the streets, too, gaining the same intelligence, and not gaining the same sure-fire win.
It’s not uncommon for campaigns from both parties to cull state voter data for their door-to-door efforts. The sorting often involves targeting registered voters who are unaffiliated, key constituencies or those who have voted against their party in recent years.
Ciruli said that whatever Romanoff learns about unique voters while canvassing will be added to lists the Romanoff campaign uses when ballots are mailed to voters.
“The bulk of it is to identify every voter you can as a potential supporter, and then call them the day ballot arrives,” Ciruli said. “Most of this will happen behind the scenes. It’s very expensive, and time-consuming. Democrats are concerned young people and minorities will not turn out. They’re anxious to get them all out to vote.”
Friday, September 26, 2014
Amendments Split
In the only public poll so far in the 2014 campaign to cover Colorado ballot issues, the USA Today/Suffolk poll found two of the four Colorado ballot issues losing and two winning. The perennial loser, “personhood,” is behind 10 points, 35 percent to 45 percent. It has lost twice before by large margins and is expected to do so in 2014.
Coloradans haven’t been generous to gaming expansion beyond the current footprint of small mountain communities. But, that doesn’t stop out-of-state interests from trying. This year, it is being sold as a boon for public education funding. It is losing by 11 points in the early poll, 33 percent to 44 percent.
Finally, Jon Caldera appears to have a ballot issue that could pass – a miracle. Open meetings for school boards and labor negotiations has a 20-point lead as it sounds attractive to voters. Expect the Colorado Education Association to weigh in with an effort to defeat it. Their view is secrecy produces better deals than transparency.
Labeling genetically modified food is ahead by 15 points. Voters like more information as consumers than less. Expect Colorado’s substantial food industry to express a view as to why it’s a bad idea.
Finally, Jon Caldera appears to have a ballot issue that could pass – a miracle. Open meetings for school boards and labor negotiations has a 20-point lead as it sounds attractive to voters. Expect the Colorado Education Association to weigh in with an effort to defeat it. Their view is secrecy produces better deals than transparency.
Labeling genetically modified food is ahead by 15 points. Voters like more information as consumers than less. Expect Colorado’s substantial food industry to express a view as to why it’s a bad idea.
PPP Confirms Udall is Behind
The race for U.S. Senate took a sharp turn last week when two post-Labor Day polls shifted to likely voter models and showed Senator Mark Udall behind by 8 (Quinnipiac) and 2 (USA Today/Suffolk) points. Democrats and their friends declared the polls outliers, especially the Quinnipiac survey.
A new poll done by a Democratic research firm adds its weight to the view Udall is behind. PPP reports a September 21, 2014 poll of 652 likely voters that Gardner leads 47 percent to 45 percent.
A new poll done by a Democratic research firm adds its weight to the view Udall is behind. PPP reports a September 21, 2014 poll of 652 likely voters that Gardner leads 47 percent to 45 percent.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
European Integration Threatened
The independence movement in Scotland is part of a European phenomenon that, while uniquely Scottish, shares many aspects of other recent European protest parties and movements. It was seen in most dramatic fashion in last spring’s (May 2014) European parliamentary elections where anti-integration parties won a quarter of the representatives.
The Scots Say “No” and Polls Get it Right
The final Ipsos/MORI poll, a British gold standard, called the race 47 percent “yes” and 54 percent “no” and a 6-point difference Wednesday night. The result was 10 points.
Men and younger voters were more in favor. It was a battle with a lot of emotion between the heart and the wallet, with women and older voters believing the change involved too much risk.
The independence movement appears to have many aspects of the sentiment seen throughout the developed world that is anti-establishment and, in this case, anti-Westminster.
Most of the polls said independence would lose. Several theories were offered for why the “no” vote was underestimated:
Late deciders. The common experience in ballot initiatives is late deciders stay with the status quo. Also, some voters may say they support independence (i.e., change), but pull back when looking over the cliff (bungee jump; i.e., the no jump vote).
Shy voters. Some voters are not willing to tell pollsters they plan to vote against independence.
Turnout. There appeared to be some fall off in turnout among independence supporters.
Men and younger voters were more in favor. It was a battle with a lot of emotion between the heart and the wallet, with women and older voters believing the change involved too much risk.
The independence movement appears to have many aspects of the sentiment seen throughout the developed world that is anti-establishment and, in this case, anti-Westminster.
Most of the polls said independence would lose. Several theories were offered for why the “no” vote was underestimated:
Late deciders. The common experience in ballot initiatives is late deciders stay with the status quo. Also, some voters may say they support independence (i.e., change), but pull back when looking over the cliff (bungee jump; i.e., the no jump vote).
Shy voters. Some voters are not willing to tell pollsters they plan to vote against independence.
Turnout. There appeared to be some fall off in turnout among independence supporters.
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