Gay Rights: Not Question of If, But When

Although gay rights were given a mighty push by the Supreme Court, it is not clear Colorado is ready to overturn its constitutional ban. In 2016 possibly, but 2014 may be too soon. Opinion on the issues is still closely divided, and 2014 could be a lower turnout, anti-establishment-type election.

“A poll released two months ago indicated that Colorado residents now support gay marriage 51 percent to 43 percent. Among voters younger than 30, it passes by a 74 percent to 17 percent spread, according to left-leaning Public Policy Polling.

Public opinion, however, doesn't always translate to votes on Election Day, Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said.

Catholics, including those who are older and some who identify as Democrats, would be less likely to support it. Latino and African-American voters also have traditionally opposed gay marriage.

Those demographics, however, are changing. African-American voters have shifted since President Obama said last year his opinion on the issue had "evolved," Ciruli said. Latinos younger than 30, for example, support gay marriage by more than 65 percent, which tracks with the rest of young voters on the issue in Colorado”. (Denver Post, 6-27-13)

See:
Denver Post: Colorado reacts to Supreme Court ruling in favor of gay marriage

Pueblo Incumbent Forced Into Recall

State Senator Angela Giron is in a fight to keep her seat and she could lose. A local group of voters passionate about gun rights collected about than 13,000 signatures, and more than 12,000 were verified.  That was more than enough to make the ballot and the 90 percent verification rate showed organizational skill.

Even though Giron’s district is 50 percent Democrat, the special election will likely attract few voters and the Pueblo Freedom and Rights group have demonstrated their ability to attract voters and get them to take action. In addition, Pueblo Democrats often fight in primaries and sometimes punish incumbent officeholders. They just tossed out an incumbent DA.

Giron is now the second senate seat in southern Colorado in a recall.

Expect a lot of out-of-state money defending the Democrats and a lot of out-of-district visitors, both political celebrities and door-to-door walkers, trying to save the incumbents.

‘“The signatures verified clearly shows a lot of passion in her district,” said political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “And in a recall election, there’s going to be low turnout, which raises questions if she can get her supporters out there.”

Ciruli notes that Giron is married to Pueblo City Council President Steve Nawrocki.

“This will be a major fight,” Ciruli said. “In Pueblo she’s tied into the political circles and can get out her message and quite possibly the vote.”’ (Denver Post, 6-24-13)

See:
Denver Post: Angela Giron recall effort moves forward with signatures certified
The Buzz: Democrats on defensive

What’s Behind Colorado’s Hard Left Turn?

Patrick Malone, reporter for the Fort Collins Coloradoan, just completed an analysis of the recent shifts in Colorado politics.

He made use of The Buzz to analyze the “Hard Left Turn” in the state during the last decade, from George W. Bush winning by 5 points in 2004 to Barack Obama’s 5-point win in 2012.

‘“The Democratic ideology and the liberal ideals have the advantage in Colorado right now,” said Floyd Ciruli, who has closely watched Colorado politics for more than three decades.’ (Coloradoan, 6-22-13)

See: The Buzz: Obama gained more than 200,000 voters as Colorado shifted Democratic

Russia is Not Europe and Not Much of an Ally

Mr. Putin appears to have a bad attitude toward the U.S. and Europe on both social and foreign policy issues. His most notorious statement expresses his general view on authoritarianism: “First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

Most recently, he has criticized Europe’s and the West’s excessive focus on homosexual rights, while the Duma and his government “outlaw gay propaganda” and same-sex adoptions. His criticism, no doubt, is a reflection of recent demonstrations against his increasingly authoritarian regime in Moscow.

And, of course, in his recent confrontation with President Obama, Putin argued for the superior moral position of Russia backing the Assad regime and not the rebels. Most of his policy is reactionary, but his public relations is smooth, if disingenuous.

Although Putin is clearly bothersome for the West, he is reflecting Russian public opinion. The level of Russian acceptance of homosexuality is closer to Pakistan than Britain, France, Germany or most countries in Europe. Russians’ impression of Iran is far more favorable than any nation in Western Europe or even Egypt.

See Pew:
The global divide on homosexuality
Global views of Iran overwhelmingly negative

Syria – Messy

The key question for the President and country’s foreign policy establishment is how to get into and out of Syria, make a contribution, avoid making a mess and hold down the cost. Unfortunately, the administration’s dithering to find this sweet spot created a vacuum that Iran, Russia and the neighboring Shia are happy to fill.

And, American opinion is encouraging the drift. After years of being told by the administration that success is defined as withdrawal, Americans have no appetite for a surge into Syria. Two new opinion polls show a public opposed to a Syrian commitment.

In a series of follow-up questions, Pew probed the public’s sense of obligation in opposing authoritarian regimes and stopping violence. Concern for those positions was slight. Not asked was the basic national security question of “is stopping Syria from becoming a satellite for Iranian and Russian aggression in the Middle East an important goal.”

Pew obviously felt the main motivating factors for American involvement are humanitarian or democratic goals. But, the challenge in Syria is becoming more purely national interest.

Of course, at this point in the life of the Obama presidency, partisanship effects all public perception, making finding a majority for a foreign policy action nearly impossible.

See:

Pew: Public remains opposed to arming Syrian rebels

Gallup: Americans disapprove of U.S. decision to arm Syrian rebels

Mellman is Wrong; Obama Losing Clout

Mark Mellman, probably the Democratic Party’s best pollster and a ranking member of the Washington pundancy, recently wrote that polls showing President Obama in trouble are outliers and receiving too much coverage and commentary.  He was especially critical of the coverage of a CNN poll showing Obama with a 45 percent approval, especially, needless to say, on CNN.

Mellman pointed out that the bulk of current polls show Obama about 50 percent or above in approval and there has been little or no real movement for months.  He’s not alone making the observation.  Chris Cillizza, regular pundit for the Washington Post, produced charts showing opinion stability most of the year, and currently the ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama’s approval at 51 percent and Pew at 49 percent.

Mellman attributes the stability to partisan polarization.  A polarized electorate simply ignores factors, such as gridlock and scandals, and remains loyal to their party preference.

But, if Colorado is still a battleground and a swing state, Obama is in trouble.  The latest Quinnipiac poll has Obama at 43 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval.

Mellman’s argument doesn’t hold water in Colorado because the key to winning a majority in polls and elections are independent voters. Obama is losing their approval of his performance 40 percent to 58 percent, which is worse than his weak statewide average.

Also, latest round of national polls appears to show a downward trend for Obama, with his Real Clear Politics average approval hitting 46 percent, a low not seen since early August 2012. Colorado continues to set the mark.

See The Buzz: Obama in trouble

Immigration Reform – Good for Congress

Immigration reform appears to be in trouble due to growing Republican resistance. It will be a mistake for the party to lose a chance to put the issue behind them and, more importantly, improve their reputation for being able to accomplish something.

Numerous polls show the public supports immigration reform at very high levels as long as it is framed as requiring undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, wait a minimum of 10 years before they are eligible for citizenship and have a job. The latest PPP poll claims 69 percent of Coloradans favor that position (PPP used 13 years and didn’t include a job).

What is also clear is Congress will only recover its reputation by accomplishing something. Immigration reform may be one of the few items that has a reasonable chance of passing this year.

Congress is now on the bottom of a list of American institutions, most of which are below 50 percent of the public saying that they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in.

The top reason people disapprove of Congress is its lack of accomplishment.

See:
The Buzz: Immigration reform will benefit Republican Party
The Buzz: Make immigrants pay taxes
The Buzz: RNC – Comprehensive immigration reform
Denver Post: Poll: More than 70 percent of Coloradans support immigration reform
Gallup: Gridlock is top reason Americans are critical of Congress
Gallup: Americans’ confidence in Congress fails to lowest on record