Mellman is Wrong; Obama Losing Clout

Mark Mellman, probably the Democratic Party’s best pollster and a ranking member of the Washington pundancy, recently wrote that polls showing President Obama in trouble are outliers and receiving too much coverage and commentary.  He was especially critical of the coverage of a CNN poll showing Obama with a 45 percent approval, especially, needless to say, on CNN.

Mellman pointed out that the bulk of current polls show Obama about 50 percent or above in approval and there has been little or no real movement for months.  He’s not alone making the observation.  Chris Cillizza, regular pundit for the Washington Post, produced charts showing opinion stability most of the year, and currently the ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama’s approval at 51 percent and Pew at 49 percent.

Mellman attributes the stability to partisan polarization.  A polarized electorate simply ignores factors, such as gridlock and scandals, and remains loyal to their party preference.

But, if Colorado is still a battleground and a swing state, Obama is in trouble.  The latest Quinnipiac poll has Obama at 43 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval.

Mellman’s argument doesn’t hold water in Colorado because the key to winning a majority in polls and elections are independent voters. Obama is losing their approval of his performance 40 percent to 58 percent, which is worse than his weak statewide average.

Also, latest round of national polls appears to show a downward trend for Obama, with his Real Clear Politics average approval hitting 46 percent, a low not seen since early August 2012. Colorado continues to set the mark.

See The Buzz: Obama in trouble