Colorado on the Move in 2013

It should be a good 2013 in Colorado.  Metro sales tax collections are up 8 percent this year, following a 7 percent increase in 2011.  The state’s top economists (both the executive and legislative branches) report state tax revenue is up more than $150 million above estimates of just three months ago due to income and housing prices recovering.  The overall state budget is at $8.1 billion, finally above the pre-recession peak of $7.7 billion in 2007.

And, contrary to some analysts who claim Colorado’s population growth has slowed, in fact, the U.S. Census reports Colorado’s growth during the recent 12 months made Colorado the 7th fastest growing in the nation, with the rest of the new oil patch in North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Texas.

Colorado workers, entrepreneurs and investors are on the move. Now, if the politicians just get us off the cliff, 2013 will be prosperous.

Happy New Year Friends!

Asian Americans in the Obama Coalition

Asian Americans gave Barack Obama overwhelming support on November 6.  Their joining the Obama coalition was newsworthy, but not a surprise.  Asian Americans voted for Obama in 2008 and have a variety of liberal-leaning opinions.

Although the percentage of the electorate didn’t increase from 2008, the Asian American community increased their support for Obama by 11 percentage points.  The 73 percent support exceeded the Latino community’s 71 percent support.

Bill Clinton only received 31 percent of the Asian American vote in 1992.  A variety of explanations are offered for the dramatic shift.

1. Asian Americans often reside in deep blue states and pick up the political attitudes of the area.
2. On a variety of measures, Asian Americans are liberal, supporting Obamacare and preferring more to less government.
3. Asian Americans are not homogenous in their political orientation.  The exceptionally high level of support registered in 2012 could be an exit poll artifact even though they clearly lean Democratic.
4. Many Asian Americans are highly educated and may assimilate the political attitudes of America’s educated elites.
5. Democrats have offered appointments and been solicitous of the community the last two decades.
6. Republican anti-immigrant rhetoric has alienated the community.

Asian Americans now join the 28 percent of the non-White U.S. electorate, which mostly supported Obama.  He received an 80 percent level of support on average (African American voters gave Obama 93% of their vote).  Non-White voters represented more than two-fifths of his coalition.

Both Parties Vulnerable in Cliff Negotiations

Americans believe going off the cliff will harm both the country and their personal finances. They also believe that there should be compromise to reach an agreement.

There are differences in party perspective, but, in general, a majority of partisans agree the fiscal cliff will have harmful effects and that it should be avoided through compromise.

Other polls show the Democrats have considerable advantage in the negotiations due to the public’s strong support for raising taxes on the rich (61% of Republicans support, NBC/WSJ poll, Dec. 2012) and the general support of the President’s position in the negotiations.

Republicans suffer both from some of their core members believing there is too much compromise and many others believing there’s not enough.

Democrats are not seen as willing as Republicans to reduce spending or entitlements, and most of the options are not popular.  Still, the public wants a solution and believes that compromise is the path to get it.

If there is failure to reach an agreement, which results in significant tax increases, spending cuts and possibly a recession, President Obama will be damaged as much as Congress – it will launch his second term with a major failure and frame the next two years as a bitter stalemate.

See ABC News:  Obama holds most cards in cliff talks, but with no mandate – and risks aplenty

2012 – A Gay Election

Gay voters and the gay agenda were big winners in the 2012 election. President Obama endorsed gay marriage in May, which provided a significant boost. Gay marriage now has majority support among Americans. (Gallup reports 53% support it.  Pew says 49% support.) In a PPP April poll, 53 percent of Coloradans said they supported gay marriage.

But, its biggest victory came on Election Day when voters in three states approved gay marriage after more than a decade of approving bans. Maine, Maryland and Washington State said yes to gay marriage and Minnesota rejected a constitutional ban.

Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) voters said they were voting overwhelmingly for Obama (71% vs. 22% for Romney) as opposed to the non-LGBT community, which in an October 18 Gallup poll gave Romney a one-point advantage (47% Romney vs. 46% Obama). The LGBT community provided Obama support equal to the Latino (71%) and Asian American (73%) communities.  

Gallup reports 3.4 percent of voters say they are LGBT. They are most likely to be liberal than others and slightly more Democratic than independent.

“I’ve Got ‘Bigger Fish to Fry’”

Possibly the biggest surprise of election night was the 10-point margin of support for legalization of recreational marijuana. Substantial portions of the establishment opposed it.  But, opposition was largely passionless, providing no real money or manpower. Many opponents appeared to believe legalization was inevitable, but preferred Colorado not be first.

Late polls consistently showed the amendment ahead, but at or below the 50 percent level, often an indication of trouble on Election Day. But, similar to Obama’s final surge, marijuana won by a 10-point margin.

Supporters had an 8-to-1 fundraising advantage and substantial swathes of the Obama coalition – young voters, minorities and liberals – supported it.

But, the win was beyond the usual liberal bastions of Boulder, Denver and the state’s ski areas. The initiative received more votes than the President statewide and carried the swing Front Range counties of Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer. But more impressively, it won narrow victories in Republican-dominated counties Obama lost of El Paso and Weld.

Governor John Hickenlooper expressed initial resistance to implementation (“Don’t break out the Cheetos or Goldfish”), pointing out that there was still federal law against possession, even small amounts, of marijuana. But, he has since accepted the responsibility to sign the initiative and assemble a task force to consider rules and regulations. Washington State also passed and must deal with implementation.

U.S. public opinion appears to have moved toward support of legalization. A recent Washington Post poll shows it tied at 47 percent for and against, and Gallup has it 48 percent to legalize and 50 percent to leave it illegal (down from 62% leaving it illegal in 2000).

But more importantly for federal enforcement and the implementation of Colorado’s and Washington’s new laws is that a substantial percentage of Americans believe the federal government should leave the issue to the states and not enforce federal anti-marijuana laws (Gallup – 64% no enforcement; Washington Post – 59% leave to states).

Reflecting the voters’ decision in Colorado and Washington and the shifting public opinion, President Obama has declared enforcement of small amounts will not be a priority of the administration. “I’ve got ‘bigger fish to fry.’”

Hispanic Voters Exercise Power

The most important and long lasting influence of the 2012 election will be the arrival of the Hispanic vote.

The vote as a percentage of the U.S. electorate has increased from 8 percent in 2004 to 10 percent today.  Hispanics now make up 14 percent of Colorado’s electorate.  But equally important has been the massive shift from President Bush winning 44 percent of the U.S. Hispanic vote in 2004 to Barack Obama receiving 75 percent in Colorado in 2012 and 71 percent nationally.

Fourteen percent of the Colorado electorate in 2012 was approximately 365,000 Hispanic voters, with Obama winning 273,000 of them, or twice his statewide margin of victory of 130,000 votes.

The significant Hispanic participation also affected down ballot races in Colorado where a record number of 12 Hispanics joined the legislature.  

They are also major influences in a host of states that have more than a million Hispanic residents:  Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Texas.  Florida is already a battleground state, with Obama winning it this year by less than a percentage point.  It could be joined by Arizona and Texas longtime Republican strongholds.

Education is Hispanics most important issue, then work and health care.  Immigration only rates fourth, but unless a politician gets it right, it’s impossible for them to get a hearing from most Hispanic voters.  Obama effectively used education (Dream Act) and immigration initiatives to cement support.  Obama’s deportation initiative was very popular.  Seventy-one percent said it was “about right” vs. “too little” or “too much.”

Pelosi Stays, But Unlikely to be Speaker Again

Nancy Pelosi has decided to remain the U.S. House minority leader, but she is very unlikely to ever be the Speaker again.  Her last shot to regain the Speaker position was this year, but Democrats came up short, gaining only 8 seats, but needing 25 to regain the House.

Midterm elections, especially a president’s last midterm, are historically difficult for the president’s party.  Only Bill Clinton in the last century gained House seats (4) in his last midterm election in 1998 as Newt Gingrich led an impeachment effort.  Gingrich then resigned.

Pelosi’s reason for staying this year was not to win back the House, which was her rationale for staying around after the Democratic defeat in 2010.  Rather, her caucus felt she best represented their liberal views and diversity and would be a protection against backsliding by moderate Democrats, like her colleague and likely replacement Rep. Steny Hoyer.