Separation

It is sad to hear of Helen Thorpe's and John Hickenlooper’s separation.

They married just as his career was shifting from business to politics, and she made it clear that the political life was not her favorite activity.  She maintained her profession and recently authored a book.

The transition from mayor to governor may have contributed to the strain.  Gubernatorial issues and travel are statewide and Hickenlooper’s profile has recently been raised by the fires and shooting of July 20.

The Colorado governorship has caused family difficulties in many recent governors.  Roy Romer, Bill Owens and Bill Ritter each had to deal with the tensions.

It is unlikely that an amicable separation will cause the Governor any political harm.

We wish them both the best.

Also see Washington Times:  Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper announces separation

Hickenlooper Gathering Positive Press

A long Reuters article describes Governor Hickenlooper’s image as friendly, easygoing, independent, if slightly eccentric.

It works in Colorado and may draw a national constituency.

“Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper stood in front of a slew of cameras hours after the carnage in an Aurora movie theater and struggled to find words:

‘The victims of this senseless act of ... of violence ...’

Hickenlooper stumbled, then gave up. ‘Again, there just aren’t words,’ he said.

The governor's remarks, at a news conference last Friday, sounded even more unfocused by comparison with the crisp report delivered minutes later by Aurora Police Chief Daniel Oates.

But his halting performance on the national stage did not seem to bother the governor’s constituents. On the contrary, the geeky Democrat with the funny name has earned high marks from Colorado voters precisely because he's unpolished, unscripted and slightly awkward - all of which makes him seem authentic and, especially in recent days, genuinely empathetic, political analysts say.

Hickenlooper consistently earns favorability ratings of 60 percent or higher in a state where the electorate is roughly divided in thirds among Democrats, Republicans and independents. That makes him one of the most broadly popular governors in the country; he's sometimes mentioned as a potential presidential candidate in 2016.

Watching him at the news conference, wearing rumpled shirt sleeves and fumbling to find the right tone, outsiders might have said ‘He was not as professional as he could be,’ said Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster in Denver. ‘But that is pure Hickenlooper. He is in no way artificial or practiced.’ (Stephanie Simon, Reuters, July 25)

Hickenlooper Speech Starts a Presidential Buzz

By giving a speech in Manchester, New Hampshire, John Hickenlooper has restarted the buzz he’s running for president in 2016.

That still seems doubtful, but the recent national coverage of the fires and the Aurora shooting has raised his profile.

See Fox 31:  Hickenlooper to speak in New Hampshire, fueling 2016 buzz

Tragedy in Aurora

The tragic shooting in Aurora has already reopened a national conversation concerning gun control.  Democrats stopped advocating more gun control legislation after the 2004 presidential and congressional elections.  They became convinced it cost them seats and votes in gun rights areas.

Public opinion may change after this horrific incident, but a 2011 Gallup poll showed support for banning handguns had declined since 1980 and the shooting of President Reagan.  And, that decline is in the face of many violent incidents, including Columbine, Virginia Tech and Tucson to name a few.  People do want strict enforcement of current laws.

There is more support for regulation of automatic weapons (63% ban on assault weapons, CBS/NYT 2011), but politicians have avoided the issue in recent years.

See:
Nov. 7, 2011 blog:  Opinion changes on social issues
Huffington Post:  Gun control polls show longterm decline in support, despite Columbine bump
Denver Post:  Aurora shooting unlikely to impact presidential race
Denver Post – The Spot:  Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper faces challenges after shooting, says predecessor

Will Marijuana Bring Out the Youth Vote? – Denver Post

Colorado will have a recreation marijuana initiative on the ballot and it could help Barack Obama with the youth vote, or they might vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico, who is a legalization advocate.

“‘Obama on his best day is at 45 or 47 percent out here,’ says longtime Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli.  He thinks the marijuana initiative, support for which has ranged from 46 to 61 percent in polls (depending on how the question is asked), may well do better than the president in November and that Democrats ‘can’t take that vote for granted.’” (Salon.com, 7-19-12)

Obama is winning voters aged 18 to 29 years old by 23 percentage points according to Gallup, but they are 20 points less likely to vote than the average turnout of all registered voters.

Young voters favor the legalization by large majorities.  Will it drive turnout?  At the margins, yes.  Will those voters be attracted to vote for Johnson rather than Obama?  Not likely.

“But Denver political consultant Floyd Ciruli said neither Romney’s nor Obama’s campaigns should be worried.

‘By and large, the Libertarian Party brings almost nothing to the table other than ballot access,’ Ciruli said. ‘The individual would have to be a celebrity or be independently wealthy or have an issue that is just raging with the people.’” (Denver Post, 6-19-12)

See:
Denver Post:  Presidential hopeful Gary Johnson, Libertarian from New Mexico, attempts to woo voters
Gallup:  Young U.S. voters’ turnout intentions lagging
Salon.com:  Obama’s pot problem

Metro Denver Retail Recovery Underway

The Denver seven-county metro area has had a tremendous surge of activity its first five months of the year as measured by sales tax receipts.  Year-to-date receipts (May) are up 8.4 percent over a year ago and sales tax revenue up 9.1 percent for the month compared to May 2011.  This represents a strong improvement over the last three months.  The March year-to-date was up 3.8 percent over 2011 and month-over-month revenue was up 5.8 percent compared to March 2011.

Colorado may be an anomaly, as recent national retail sales slowed in June.  But, areas are unique, and Colorado has had higher personal income growth and lower unemployment than the national average.  So, the improvement through the end of the year could be more modest, yet still ahead of the national average, and the growth is certainly welcomed.

See Wall Street Journal:
When pockets of strength just aren’t enough
U.S. News:  Retail sales cap sluggish quarter

West Most Competitive – NPR

Gallup reports that western U.S., along with the Midwest, are the most competitive areas for the presidential race.  Barack Obama has a slight advantage in each.

Within the western states considered very to somewhat competitive, Colorado is the most competitive.  Obama leads by 3 points (average of the most recent polls).

The best indicator of Colorado’s prominence in the presidential campaign is the frequency of candidate visits.  Mitt Romney has been here three times since securing the nomination, including a week ago. NPR Don Gonyea covered the visit.

GONYEA: But despite such moments, long time Colorado pollster, Floyd Ciruli, says Romney is moving cautiously at this stage in the state, avoiding so far the Denver metropolitan area.

FLOYD CIRULI: I assume this is a Maoist strategy - take the countryside and the cities will follow.

GONYEA: Polls in Colorado have given the president a narrow but consistent lead over Romney, even when bad news on the economy or other topics has hit the administration. Ciruli says Romney will need to win over suburban voters around Denver. He says those are the people who decide statewide elections here.

CIRULI: And so ultimately, that's where this battle will be and he hasn't gotten there yet.

Obama and his wife, Michelle, are even more frequent visitors, having just visited the Colorado Springs fire area and Pueblo.

Obama will contest Colorado and Nevada.  Although the campaign talks about Arizona, as of today, he is not competitive there.

One caveat:  There are few polls in many of these states and many were conducted in May or earlier.

Also see Gallup:  Midwest, West most competitive regions in 2012 U.S. election