A Quick Review of Election 2011

The bad economy and anger with government will frame Tuesday’s election. Local measures tend to be dominated by local factors, but any proposal that raises taxes, increases costs or negatively affect jobs, faces a more difficult environment. That is especially true for the statewide initiative.

Proposition 103
Both sides of the statewide tax increase contest have had little money for the campaign. The general assumption is a tax increase in this economy will lose. Senator Rollie Heath, Boulder’s most recognizable liberal leader, is attempting to grow state revenue in an era dominated by talk of cutting government. The larger the loss, the less likely there will be an effort to address Colorado’s well-documented structural deficit.

Governor Hickenlooper and much of the establishment have neither endorsed Proposition 103 nor opposed it. But, the economy is likely to sink it, along with a low turnout of mostly more anti-government voters.

Boulder Power Municipalization
The municipal takeover of Xcel Boulder power system is unprecedented in a major city, especially solely for the environmental value of alternative energy.

It represents a significant assumption of debt for the city with risk of increased rates.

The result is being watched around the country.

Frazier vs. Hogan
Aurora finally has a real mayor’s election. After decades of dominance by the Tauer family (Paul and Ed), the 2011 mayor’s race has all the elements of a top level Colorado election – a lot of money, negative ads and it appears close. Ryan Frazier, councilman and recent congressional candidate, has the advantage, but Steve Hogan claims to have closed the gap.

Initiative 300
Even in liberal Denver, Initiative 300, guaranteeing sick days for employees, has run up against concern for the cost to small businesses and the negative affect it could have in attracting new jobs.

The Mayor and Governor oppose it; the Denver City Council is divided.

See articles:
9News – Ballot issues could cost big money
Stateline.org – Colo. Ballot measure to test voters’ willingness to raise taxes

Money is Key to Obama’s Victory in 2012

President Barack Obama outspent John McCain in 2008 and plans to smother the Republicans in 2012 again with money.

His campaign set a goal of $1 billion in 2012, and in spite of his low approval rating and the bad economy, he continues to be a prodigious fundraiser for himself and the DNC.

He reported $70 million raised in the second quarter of the year and more than $50 million over the summer. And, they claim a part of the money came in online and mail-in gifts from more than a half a million donors giving them $250 or less.

But upwards of half come from the well reported, high-profile events that get people’s attention with $5,000 for a seat, $10,000 for a picture and $30,000 plus for some face time.

Obama benefits from a very disciplined fundraising effort, his incumbency and the lack of competition for funds from political rivals. Media reported Obama held 127 events through August of the President’s first term compared to 88 for G.W. Bush during the same period and 76 for Bill Clinton.

Can money make up for the loss of voter approval and enthusiasm? If the race is close, Obama believes the answer is yes.

See articles:
White House Dossier: Obama raised at least $70 million last quarter
USA Today: Obama outpaces fundraising activity of predecessors
Politico: Why Dems are winning money war
New York Times: Small donors are slow to return to the Obama fold
White House Dossier: Obama fundraising suffers huge drop-off

Presidential Nomination Moves Up

Colorado Republicans joined the general shift forward in the presidential nomination process.

Candidates and the media will be in Iowa and New Hampshire for News Years as the Iowa caucus is now January 3 and New Hampshire’s primary January 10.

Colorado Republicans set February 7 as caucus night, and Nevada just agreed to February 4 after flirting with upsetting the entire schedule by moving to January 14.

Colorado Democrats have left their caucus on March 6, the original Super Tuesday, which still has 13 states, including Georgia, Massachusetts, Texas and Virginia among them.

Hickenlooper Riding High

Barry Noreen, the premiere columnist for the Colorado Springs Gazette, makes the point that as Gov. John Hickenlooper approaches the first anniversary of his election in November 2010, he would be unbeatable if he was on this year’s ballot.

I said: “He would be stronger than the first time because he was still the Denver mayor.”

Hickenlooper has not been as dramatic as New Jersey’s Gov. Christie in his first year, or even as ambitious as Gov. Owens back in 1999, but Hickenlooper has focused on the number one issue – jobs – and had some successes. He’s also maintained an independent and moderate political image, which is a valuable commodity in Colorado.

See Colorado Springs Gazette article: Noreen: Colorado is a Hickenlooper state so far

Obama Works the Youth Vote

President Barack Obama is depending on the youth vote to save his presidency. They formed a major component of his 2008 landslide victory, but now are needed to fill in for major defections among White and independent voters.

In the policy arena, the administration just announced in Colorado a college loan debt forgiveness program.

And, the campaign just launched its youth vote effort with high-profile and expensive initiatives, including a new website using Facebook, Twitter and social media. Expect to see a lot of activity on college campuses. And remember, there are millions of new young people today who were 14 to 17 years old in 2008. They are now in college or looking for work. Democrats want them next November.

In 2008, voters aged 18 to 29 were 14 percent of the Colorado electorate, but dropped down to 9 percent in the Democratic local “shellacking” in 2010.

Obama won the national youth vote by 66 percent in 2008, but today, he has only a 48 percent approval rating among them.

Obama’s second visit to Colorado and it’s all about the base. Last visit, a Hispanic high school and now an urban college campus – base, base, base.

See articles:
USA Today: Obama team moves to rekindle 2008’s magic with young voters
Denver Post: Obama to talk about student loan debt at Auraria campus tomorrow

“Follow the Money”

The record amount of money contributed to Denver’s three school board elections demonstrates that although the race may lack heat, the stakes are high.  The board majority could shift from reform to the pro-union faction if the two district seats elect the anti-reform candidates.

The union contributions make clear which candidates they believe will be in their camp.  In general, candidates have avoided high-profile fights and name-calling this year.  But, the pro-union candidates tend to resist any changes that reduce union membership (i.e., charter schools) or constrain the application of negotiated contracts.

The non-union pro-reform candidates dominate the contributions collecting 75 percent of the total, or $515,000, by early October.  Major contributors are business and foundation leaders, including Bruce Benson giving $30,000 and Dan Ritchie with $78,000.

The local teachers union contributed about $50,000 directly to their two candidates.  The total reported DCTA contribution as of October 18 was $88,000 of which $42,000 went to new committee for campaign fliers and mailers.  Additionally, indirect contributions of $92,000 were reported by the statewide Colorado Education Association.  These funds were not reported for specific races in Denver or other school districts.

It was only about a decade ago when the unions could dominate a school board election with their contributions and manpower – no longer.  Although their candidates have tried to reduce the level of controversy and avoid being labeled pro-union, as the reporters said in the Watergate investigation – “follow the money.”

See Denver Post articles:

Big bucks fuel DPS board races
Finance reports shed light on Denver school-board race

Editorial:  Vote to advance reforms at DPS

Obama’s Support Divided by Race, Age and Education

America’s preference for candidates has been studied for decades, but it’s always enlightening to describe the positions of the major independent variables of the body politic as they divide in a presidential election. 

President Barack Obama wanted to be a unifier and above the political fray, but after 3 years, he’s as embattled as any president in modern history and the object of intense and polarized feelings among the public.

At a 41 percent monthly average approval in September – one of the lowest in his administration – Gallup reports Obama is above President Carter (32%) a year before his loss, but below President Clinton (46%) before his win in 1995.

Obama benefits from approval levels that are higher than his disapproval levels, averaging 7 percent above the average of 41 percent among allies and 4 percent below the average among skeptics.

Also see:

Gallup poll:  Obama’s September approval rating remains at term-low 41%

Denver Post:  Obama’s return to Colorado on Tuesday shows state’s importance